The Denver Broncos are heavily linked to the quarterback position, with them holding the 12th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The franchise hasn’t selected a QB in the first round since 2016, with Paxton Lynch, and the first semi-competent one since 2010, with Tim Tebow, and Broncos Country is clamoring for that to change.
Many predict the top-four quarterbacks will be long gone by Denver’s pick, which could put them in position to draft Oregon’s prolific quarterback — Bo Nix.
Positives
- Strong enough arm to beat closing defenders.
- Plays well within the structure of the offense.
- Throws a very catchable ball within 5-10 yards, opening up more YAC opportunities.
- Possesses good lower-half mechanics. Often throws from a very firm base and generates a good amount of torque from his lower half.
- Has a ton of experience at the position in college.
- More than passes the test as an athlete. Can both make plays outside of structure and also operate a diverse designed-QB-run package.
- Can throw from different platforms and arm slots.
- Has terrific pocket presence.
- Demonstrates an understanding of the defenders’ leverage, as well as how and when to manipulate it.
- Shows plenty of anticipatory throws on tape.
Negatives
- Hasn’t seen many of snaps vs. pressure during his time at Oregon.
- Sometimes shows a tendency to drift in the pocket and throw off his back foot at only the slightest hint of pressure.
- His statistics are inflated due to the funky and creative offense that Oregon runs.
- That aforementioned funky offense also led to an oversized number of screen attempts.
- Can avoid tackles in the pocket, but shows inconsistency breaking tackles once contact is made.
Overall
Bo Nix is a polarizing option in the first round, mostly due to things out of his control.
He often gets knocked for the short throws and screens littering his tape, when that is just the offense Oregon runs.
Another misconception is that he is a one-read quarterback. Yet, there are examples of him correctly going through his progressions on tape.
Nix has a very good understanding of the different leverages within defensive structures. Not only a good understanding of them, but a great understanding at knowing how to manipulate them to put a defender out of position, creating big plays in turn.
Sean Payton’s offenses through the years have had a massive emphasis on plays within structure, something that Bo Nix excels at. Being able to operate within the structure of the offense, without gimmicks to dress things up will open up any offense, and will be a necessity in the Denver Broncos’ offense moving forward.
Often we see quarterbacks needing things like screens or play-action to be efficient in structure, something that Bo Nix does not need, despite what Oregon’s offensive philosophy happens to be.
On 3rd-and-7 or longer (a valuable down and distance to measure, as play-action isn’t typically viable, leading to more straight dropback situations) Nix was 36-for-46 for 600 yards, 13.6 yards per attempt, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Additionally, 36.9% of those throws led to first downs.
Outside of structure, Nix was still able to create explosive plays when things initially broke down.
Conclusion
Bo Nix’s experience and pedigree make him a safe pick at one of the most volatile positions in all of sports.
Although he is the oldest prospect at the position projected to go within the first two rounds, that doesn’t mean there isn’t more room to grow and it also doesn’t necessarily mean there is less of a chance for him to grow in those areas.
The foundation of most NFL offenses — quick game, straight dropback throws and intermediate high/low reads — are all things Nix excels at, and all things the Denver Broncos’ offense will feature under Sean Payton. This bodes well for his floor at the NFL level, and he also possesses the athleticism to boast a potentially tantalizing ceiling.
