With the first wave of free agency in the books, The Denver Broncos can now turn their attention to arguably the most important part of their offseason — The 2024 NFL Draft.
With the Russell Wilson trade depleting Denver of premium draft selections over the last two years, and the underwhelming selections the team has made with the rest of their picks, the Broncos find themselves with one of the least talented rosters in the league.
This upcoming draft is a pivotal moment for the franchise, as they are finally swallowing their pride and committing to an actual rebuild.
The impending rebuild revealed itself to most in Broncos Country with the release of star safety Justin Simmons and the trade of wide receiver Jerry Jeudy, as both moves indicate a massive culture change coming to the organization.
To kick off their rebuild, it’s incredibly important the Denver Broncos secure a promising rookie class with pieces who can develop into true difference-makers.
Furthermore, this could also be a huge draft for Sean Payton’s legacy, as the team’s lack of interest in the free-agent quarterback pool is a sign that Payton has become infatuated with some of the young quarterbacks in the draft, or is comfortable waiting until next year.
Notably, this is Denver’s first draft with a first-round selection since 2021, which provides them with a much easier path to acquire talent. The big debate amongst Broncos fans from now until April will be, ‘what should they do with that pick?’
Some may argue that the Broncos should package whatever it takes to move up for a premium quarterback like Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy, while others may think they should stay at 12 or look to trade down.
In today’s mock draft, we will be exploring trading down and stockpiling more picks in the later rounds, as our own Joey Richards already shared his look at how the draft could turn out if the Broncos stay put.
While trading down would cause the Broncos to miss out on one of the class’s elite talents, adding more picks would give them more dart throws and increase their statistical chances of finding impact players. This is also regarded as one of the deepest draft classes in years, as it is loaded at multiple positions of need, including quarterback, wide receiver, offensive line, and defensive line. If Denver cannot find a way to trade up for a premium quarterback, then this is arguably their next-best option.
Trade #1: Broncos send picks 12 and 121 to the Arizona Cardinals for picks 27, 35, and 90
In what would be a massive trade on draft day with the Cardinals, the Broncos wind up with four top-100 picks, including two in the top 50.
In terms of realism, this trade makes sense for both sides. The Cardinals have been heavily linked to the Minnesota Vikings regarding trade talks for the 4th overall pick, which would mean that they would miss out on drafting Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.
If the Cardinals move down to pick 11 with the Vikings, this would give them a chance to use their excess capital to get back-to-back selections. From there, they could take LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr and the best defensive prospect left, such as Alabama edge Dallas Turner, Alabama corner Terrion Arnold, or Florida State edge Jared Verse.
That may sound counter-intuitive, but teams have historically looked to trade back up after trading down for a haul, including the Dolphins in 2021 with wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and the Cardinals in 2023 with offensive tackle Paris Johnson Jr.
Round 1, Pick 27: Adonai Mitchell, Wide Receiver, Texas
After stockpiling picks from the Arizona Cardinals, the Broncos pick the best player available in wide receiver Adonai Mitchell. Mitchell (6-foot, 200 pounds) would perfectly round out Denver’s wide receiver room, as they lack a true separator following the trade of Jerry Jeudy.
Mitchell is one of the best route runners in the class and understands the many nuances that come with it, including how to leverage defensive backs to create separation.
Like Jeudy, Mitchell is not always a natural hands catcher and can struggle with being physical at the catch point. However, he is one of the smoothest athletes in the class and has many traits that cannot be taught.
Adding Mitchell to a room with Courtland Sutton, Marvin Mims, and Tim Patrick would make the Broncos offense much more threatening moving forward.
Round 2, Pick 35: Bo Nix, Quarterback, Oregon
Bo Nix in the second round may shock NFL draft fans, as he is routinely mocked in the first round by prominent draft analysts.
However, it should not be overly surprising for Nix to take a draft day slide into the second round, similar to Will Levis in 2023, or Drew Lock in 2019. There is reason to believe that much of Nix’s hype is media-generated, as sourced reporters around the league think he will be there on Day 2.
If he were to slide to this range for the Denver Broncos, then he would be a much more worthwhile gamble than he is at 12th overall.
Nix has the upside to become a great quarterback, as he displays upper-tier arm strength and athleticism. He also is a good fit with Sean Payton, as he knows how to play within the structure of an offense and is able to find his receivers over the middle of the field, something Russell Wilson struggled with mightily.
However, serious questions exist about his reaction to pressure in the pocket and his ability to get to his second and third reads. His high-volume stats were also certainly inflated by Oregon’s offense, which makes him challenging to evaluate.
For a more in-depth breakdown of Nix, go check out Let’s Talk Broncos’ draft analyst Robby Davis’s excellent scouting report on him.
Trade #2: Broncos send pick 76 to the Texans for picks 86 and 127
This trade allows the Broncos to recoup the fourth-round pick they gave up in the Cardinals trade. Meanwhile, the Texans move up for a falling wide receiver or corner at 76, which they feel more comfortable doing after receiving a haul from the Vikings earlier in the offseason.
Round 3, Pick 86: McKinnley Jackson DT Texas A&M
After trading down for the second time, the Denver Broncos land their long-term answer at nose tackle, with McKinnley Jackson.
The defensive line was one of the Broncos’ biggest needs going into the offseason, as the 2023 unit lacked key difference-makers outside of Zach Allen. With Jackson, they are getting a disruptive 330-pound nose tackle with plenty of burst and pass-rush upside. He would provide some much-needed size to the front seven that he could use to help plug holes in the run game.
His biggest weakness is his lack of length, which makes it harder for him to win consistently as a pass rusher.
Despite this, his size and athleticism make his upside as high as any interior pass rusher in this class, making him well worth this draft slot.
Round 3, Pick 90: Theo Johnson, Tight End, Penn State
With the extra third from the Cardinals, the Broncos address their need at tight end with Theo Johnson.
Johnson displays good speed for the position and has shown to be a viable blocker both in-line and flexed out. He excels at routes that attack the seam as well as deep crossers over the middle, which fits Payton’s scheme like a glove.
Furthermore, Johnson has almost the exact same athletic profile as former Saints tight end Jimmy Graham, which will surely pique Payton’s interest.
That said, he is a much better vertical athlete than lateral athlete, which leads to some of his routes not being overly crisp and his YAC ability to be less than fluid. Fortunately, he would have time to grow in that aspect, as the team re-signed Adam Trautman and expects Greg Dulcich back from injury.
Round 4, Pick 127: Javon Foster, Offensive Tackle, Missouri
At pick No. 127, the Broncos finally draft an offensive tackle for the first time in seven years, when they drafted Garett Bolles 20th overall in 2017.
Foster has everything that the Broncos should be looking for in a Day 3 offensive tackle, as he displays good athleticism and has arms longer than 34 inches. Foster has an explosive first step in pass pro and displays the power needed to maul in the run game.
However, his footwork and balance can be all over the place, and he is prone to losing the leverage battle once he gets engaged with a defender.
This would be the ideal spot for Foster, as he can spend a year in the weight room and work on his technique while learning behind Bolles.
Round 5, Pick 135: Isaac Guerendo, Running Back, Louisville
While running back isn’t a massive need for the Denver Broncos, Guerendo is a fascinating prospect who boasts an impressive all-around skill set.
He is expected to go on Day 3, due to a lack of overall production, as he spent four underwhelming years at Wisconsin before transferring to Louisville this past season. But, from there, he racked up over 800 yards and 11 touchdowns despite never being the starter.
He has a fun combination of height-weight-speed at 6-foot and 220 pounds, with a 4.33 40-yard dash. Plus, his college struggles mean he has minimal tread on his tires. He also has three-down ability, as he can catch passes out of the backfield and shows willingness in pass protection.
Round 5, Pick 144: Cedric Johnson, EDGE, Ole Miss
With linebacker Drew Sanders moving to edge full-time this offseason, the Broncos now have a lot of bodies in the position group. Nonetheless, with so many of those players performing on soon-to-be-expired contracts, this shouldn’t stop them from getting a high-upside edge at some point in the draft, which is precisely what they would be getting with Johnson.
Johnson had a great week at the senior bowl, has good size, at 6-foot-3 and 260 pounds, and has the athleticism to develop into a solid edge-rusher at the next level.
However, outside linebackers coach Michael Wilhoite would have to work with him to further develop his pass rush moves and get stronger in the weight room to maximize his potential.
Round 5, Pick 146: Andru Phillips, Cornerback, Kentucky
While it is reasonable to believe that cornerback is a big need, so Denver should address it sooner, they just invested a lot of draft capital into Riley Moss last year.
Additionally, George Paton said in the end-of-season presser that the team views Moss as a starter, so the Broncos could wait to add depth to the position.
That’s exactly what they wind up doing here, with Andru Phillips, a physical corner with the flexibility to play either inside or outside. He has plenty of experience playing in both man and zone looks, and displays plenty of willingness to come downhill and support the run.
That said, he was charted with over 15 missed tackles on the season, demonstrating that his willingness doesn’t always translate into production. He can also sometimes suffer from delayed reaction times when the ball is in the air.
Regardless, his versatility and instincts would provide serviceable depth to Denver’s corner room, as well as another potential contributor on special teams.
Round 6, pick 203: Trey Taylor, Safety, Air Force
At this point in the draft, teams often take swings on the scouting department’s “guys” — players with good backstories who can, at the very least, be immediate contributors on special teams.
Taylor checks both of those boxes, as he is the cousin of Hall-of-Fame safety Ed Reed and could undoubtedly be a special teams ace for the Broncos.
He also has the upside to eventually contribute on defense, as he had a breakout year for the Air Force with 74 tackles and three interceptions, which was enough to win the Jim Thorpe Award as the Nation’s top DB.
Round 6, pick 207: Darius Muasau, Inside Linebacker, UCLA
With their last pick in the draft, the Broncos take a swing on Muasau, who had a great week at the East-West Shrine Bowl.
Muasau is not the most physically gifted linebacker in the world, but he is a physical downhill tackler and displays good instincts in the run game. He makes up for his lack of speed by showing off great pursuit angles and was also given a large amount of credit for his leadership role within the UCLA defense.
Like Taylor, Muasau would have the chance to contribute right away on special teams and eventually earn a role in the rotation.
