The Denver Broncos will start their mandatory minicamp tomorrow, and with it, several position battles across the roster will start to heat up.
Which of these position battles are the most important and which are likely to have the greatest impact on the Broncos in 2024 and beyond? Let’s look.
(For a deeper dive into all of these battles, check out the recent LTB Podcast episodes breaking down the Denver Broncos’ offensive and defensive rosters.)
5. Starting Linebacker: Jonas Griffith vs. Cody Barton
The Denver Broncos’ off-ball linebacker position could be grisly this year.
Josey Jewell was the central processor of the front seven, and was the team’s best run-defender and coverage player at off-ball linebacker. On paper, the drop-off from Jewell to either Griffith or Barton seems stark, but that could change during camp.
Pairing Singleton with Barton seems like the obvious solution. Barton is a solid coverage linebacker, which will help him balance out Singleton’s deficiencies and was just added this offseason. That said, his contract isn’t large enough to ensure him a starting gig and he was PFF’s lowest-graded linebacker when defending the run last season.
Meanwhile, Griffith is a tremendous athlete, showed real promise at the position just a few seasons ago, and is young enough to still capitalize on that potential. It’s crazy to think about now, but Singleton was initially signed to be Griffith’s backup.
That could also be the problem though, as Griffith and Singleton’s skillsets could be too redundant, as both are at their best firing downhill and are a little uncomfortable with dropping back in coverage.
4. Rotational Safety: Caden Sterns vs. Delarrin Turner-Yell vs. JL Skinner
Of all the position battles, the fight between Caden Sterns, Delarrin Turner Yell and JL Skinner will likely be the most exciting and the most fun to watch, even if it isn’t the most important.
Its importance is just limited by the fact Brandon Jones is cemented as one of the team’s starters, while PJ Locke’s new deal and early camp performances suggest he’s the prohibitive favorite for the other starting role.
So the trio will likely just be battling for roster spots and the role of the team’s third safety.
Adding a third safety is in vogue among NFL defensive coordinators, and the Broncos have used it a lot in recent seasons to help their nickel and dime packages. However, with the emergence of Ja’Quan McMillian, that role will likely be relegated to the team’s dime packages, further mitigating the competition’s ultimate importance.
Nonetheless, the loser of this battle won’t be guaranteed a roster spot, while the winner is likely to start a handful of games due to injuries, while also having a regular rotational presence, so there are stakes.
Fans might assume Sterns is a shoo-in here, and that’s understandable given every frame of tape he’s provided over the first three seasons of his career. Unfortunately, the patellar tendon injury he suffered has an extremely dubious history. Receivers and defensive backs that tear their patellar tendon are rarely ever the same, and can sometimes lose their careers. That makes it hard to project where exactly Sterns will fall in this competition, as he could challenge Locke for a starting job if fully healthy, or fail to make the final 53 if he’s severely hampered post-injury.
JL Skinner is similarly hard to project. As a draft prospect, he looked like a Day 2 talent who dropped down the board due to injury. The promise and talent is intriguing, and he could also easily wind up as the best of the bunch. However, he’s ultimately a Day 3 second-year player who barely saw playing time as a rookie, so his floor seems low as well.
Delarrin Turner-Yell is the one that we have the clearest picture of right now. He’s a quality special teams player. He’s also had some flashes on defense, though he’s also had some really ugly moments — namely in the historic Week 3 drubbing at the hands of the Miami Dolphins. It doesn’t seem like there’s a huge well of untapped potential, but it’s also hard to imagine the floor dropping out there barring serious injury.
Who will win is truly anyone’s guess. If Sterns is healthy, he should be the odds-on favorite. If not, it does seem like JL Skinner has a good chance to seize the job.
3. Starting Quarterback: Bo Nix vs. Jarrett Stidham
At first glance, one might think this is the Denver Broncos’ most important position battle, but upon further inspection, it’s hard to think of it as especially consequential.
Every report we’re getting about Bo Nix from minicamp work suggests he is already, at worst, holding his own with Jarrett Stidham, as both comfortably outplay Zach Wilson.
That already makes it a two-horse race. But with Stidham’s status as a journeyman backup and Nix’s status at the hopeful future of the franchise, it seems pretty clear that the rookie is going to take the reigns of the offense early this season, even if that transition of power doesn’t happen before Week 1.
Bo Nix will be the starting quarterback of the Denver Broncos before Halloween. Put it in ink and inject it into your skin. It’s a certainty.
So, then why does this battle matter at all, considering we already know Nix is eventually going to become the starter?
It’s a solid litmus test for the pro-readiness of the second-oldest first-round quarterback selection since 2010.
Stidham is serving as a known variable in the Nix experiment. We know he’s not good enough to be a long-term starter, but he’s also one of the league’s better backups — probably ranking somewhere between the 30th and 40th best quarterback in the world. This is evidenced both by his pay (Jacoby Brissett is the only ‘backup’ with a higher 2024 salary, and could easily wind up being New England’s starter), and the fact he ranks 36th in EPA per play out of the 73 quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps since 2021.
He’s neutrally buoyant between the realm of NFL starter and NFL backup. A financial prime meridian for veteran quarterbacks, where one side of the scale represents starters and the other represents backups.
Where Nix falls in comparison to that known commodity during his first-ever professional training camp will be interesting.
Now, if he can’t pass that bar as a rookie seeing his first NFL action, it won’t be a devastating critique, but it will be instructive in terms of just how ‘pro-ready’ Nix really is.
Fingers crossed.
2. Starting Center: Alex Forsyth vs. Luke Wattenberg vs. Sam Mustipher
The battle at center between Forsyth, Wattenberg and Mustipher feels similar to the quarterback one — intriguing upside option(s) vs. troubling known commodity — but this one has the potential to seriously hamstring Nix’s development.
If Nix isn’t ready Week 1, the Denver Broncos will just roll Stidham out until he is. No sweat.
On the other hand, if the center position isn’t ready by Week 1, the Broncos could be forced to choose between throwing Nix to the wolves or rolling Stidham out merely as a means of protecting their first-round investment.
Plus, there’s a lot more reason to be nervous here.
The two promising options, in this case, are seventh-round picks with either limited or no NFL experience at the center position. It’s not hard to imagine a world where Forsyth and Wattenberg aren’t ready to cut it, and so Denver turns to the more-experienced Mustipher.
That would make sense, as Mustipher has played well over 2,000 NFL snaps at center (a total that comfortably more than quadruples Forsyth and Wattenberg’s combined NFL experience at the position) but it would also be scary considering Mustipher has consistently been the weak link of every line he’s been apart of during those thousands of snaps.
If Mustipher wins, it could be a horrifying omen for Denver’s offensive line, right before they install a first-round rookie behind it.
1. Starting Cornerback: Riley Moss vs. Damarri Mathis vs. Levi Wallace
The battle at cornerback isn’t directly tied to Bo Nix’s success, which does ding it’s importance, but it ultimately claims the top spot as the outcome has the potential to completely sink the Denver Broncos defense.
Last season the Broncos ranked 30th in pass rush win rate, and while that’s likely to improve, it’s not likely to improve by leaps and bounds. This is still going to be a defense predicated on its secondary providing lockdown coverage.
Removing Justin Simmons from the equation is a massive blow to the formula, so it’s unlikely that Denver can get away with another season of trying to trot out a Fabien Moreau-type.
Patrick Surtain II is the best cornerback in the sport and Ja’Quan McMillian is quickly making a case for himself as one of the best slot defenders in the league. That leaves the boundary opposite Surtain as the clear weak link for teams to exploit…unless either Riley Moss lives up to Denver’s draft investment or Damarri Mathis returns to rookie form.
Last year, among the 113 cornerbacks with at least 250 coverage snaps, Levi Wallace ranked 75th in PFF’s coverage grade, 71st in passer rating allowed, and was one of nine corners to allow at least seven touchdowns. He looked like a clearly diminished version of his former self, and it’s unlikely that trend reverses now that he’s another year older.
That said, Mathis ranked 112th in coverage grade and passer rating allowed, so he’s also not a viable option without turning back the clock.
That puts a lot of pressure on Moss to save the day.
