The Denver Broncos and head coach Sean Payton made a big ol’ gamble by selecting Bo Nix 12th overall in the 2024 NFL Draft, and in order for that gamble to pay off, they’ll need some strong performances from the team’s wide receivers.
But what should the Broncos expect from each of these receivers in 2024? Let’s look.
Position Preview article series so far:
Grading The WRs Podcast Episode:
Starter: Courtland Sutton
Will He Make The Roster? Almost definitely.
The looming contract situation and long-standing trade rumors prevent it from being a certainty, as a trade is feasible, but nonetheless, such a deal is pretty unlikely to occur.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Barring that unlikely trade, Courtland Sutton will continue to fill the role he’s filled for so many years now — primary target and starting ‘X’ receiver for the Denver Broncos.
The only twist this time around is that the Broncos are more incentivized than ever to start setting up their succession plan. Pairing that with the fact that the W-L record is far from Denver’s top priority, and Sutton could see his usage artificially deflated.
Nonetheless, it would be a surprise if he wasn’t Denver’s leading receiver barring a trade, considering some of the developmental hurdles in Mims’ way.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Earning a new, up-to-date contract.
Courtland Sutton re-signed with the Denver Broncos early, only to watch the receiver market explode around him. He just saw longtime underperforming Jerry Jeudy get traded out of Denver, only to earn a larger average annual salary than Sutton ever has had.
Broncos Country being disgruntled with what they’ve gotten out of Sutton up until now is understandable, but on the open market, the former SMU product would sign for much more than what Denver is paying him, hence the awkward contract situation this offseason.
The Broncos aren’t in a spot where they want to pay an alright 30-year-old receiver well over $20 million annually, and Courtland Sutton understands he could probably make well over $20 million annually, as opposed to $15 million.
With all that in mind, this relationship seems almost destined to end one of three ways.
- The Denver Broncos trade Sutton in 2025, recoup some draft capital, and Sutton gets a healthy pay raise while also likely landing with a better quarterback on a higher-level team.
- Sutton impresses enough in 2024 that the Broncos decide to re-up with him, and Sutton gets a nice pay bump to stay in the Mile High City.
- Sutton has an underwhelming 2024, and the Broncos are unable to find an interested party and unwilling to give him a new deal themselves as a result, leaving Sutton to wait until 2025.
Safe to say any outcome that expedites a $10 million dollar or 66% pay raise (depending on how you wish to measure it) by a full calendar year should be considered a win for anyone.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Is he worth one of these massive receiver contracts?
As these wide receiver contracts get more and more expensive, they’re bound to enter a similar meta to what we’ve seen at the quarterback position — there are a handful of guys worth resigning, but otherwise, you’re better off betting on a young, cheap option with upside, than an old, expensive, mediocre known commodity.
For the same reason it’s devastating to pay a 2024-Russell-Wilson-caliber quarterback what the Denver Broncos were set to pay him, it could be devastating to pay Justin Jefferson money to a Jerry Jeudy receiver.
Now, because multiple receivers are on the field at once, which isn’t true of quarterbacks, it’s unlikely we see the middle class of the position destroyed to that same extent, but that market is still bound to take a big hit as receivers are divided into ‘guys worth big money’ and ‘veterans you will pay something to fill out your roster with’.
The next 20 months will determine which side of that fence Courtland Sutton falls on.
Starter: Marvin Mims Jr.
Will He Make The Roster? Without a doubt.
Marvin Mims is the brightest part of the Denver Broncos’ future at one of the game’s most important positions, with this seemingly being Courtland Sutton’s last year in orange and blue. He is a roster lock.
What Will His Projected Role Be? On top of being the team’s No. 2 receiver, Marvin Mims projects to be the team’s primary speed threat and a vertical ‘Z’ receiver who threatens the defense downfield.
As Sean Payton attempts to graft Bo Nix into the offense, it could make quite a bit of sense to use Mims as a suped-up version of Troy Franklin, who Nix can hit in stride to create plays after the catch, as he did very frequently while in Eugene.
Also, watch for the gap between Mims and Sutton to shrink more and more as the season goes on, with Denver becoming more and more motivated to get their No. 1 target in-waiting ready for 2025.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Mims putting forth a year-long exhibition that leaves Broncos Country optimistic about the shape of Bo Nix’s supporting cast in the wake of Sutton’s impending departure would be a success.
Sutton’s days in Denver are almost certainly numbered, and, depending on how the first half of the upcoming season goes, he could even be a trade deadline target.
With that in mind, the Broncos don’t want to be in a position where they’re left fearing for the development of their franchise’s future, because they’ve left him with no receiving talent to work with. Mims solidifying himself as a legitimate weapon for the passing attack would ease that fear and grant Denver more team-building freedom.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Is he just a one-trick pony?
Last year, the glimpses we saw of Mims were tremendously exciting. In fact, those glimpses were so exciting that it became a weekly ritual to ask Sean Payton why he wasn’t being used more.
That’s when Coach Payton would break out the, ‘Aw shucks. You mean we aren’t using Mims a ton? Well, that’s news to me. Boy howdy, we better start changing that,’ routine.
If you bought that notion — that notorious control freak, offensive mastermind, and team-building czar Sean Payton was unaware or unable to get Mims involved on a week-to-week basis — you’re probably also a big fan of Terrance Howard’s latest mathematical discoveries.
The reality is much more simple, and much less fun.
Receivers earn their usage and receivers earn their targets, and last season, Mims had not proven to be capable of handling much more than running a ‘go’ route or making magic happen with the ball in his hands.
This is evidenced by his route win rates against man and zone coverages, which mirrored those of famed draft bust Jalen Reagor.
Therefore, he was used by the Broncos as a vertical route-runner and gadget threat, as those were the only ways they felt confident getting the ball into his hands, and that’s going to lead to some inherently limited utilization.
Nonetheless, Mims showed some very special abilities that a player like Reagor never did, and he certainly has the potential to become a high-end starting receiver in this league. That said, until he takes a major leap as a route-runner, his role will be reduced to a limited niche.
Mims progressing beyond that niche would be one of the bigger wins possible for the Broncos in 2025.
Starter: Josh Reynolds
Will He Make The Roster? Yes. The Denver Broncos didn’t make many veteran additions this offseason, and Josh Reynolds was one of them, and one of the most expensive ones at that.
Not only does Reynolds fill a clear role for the Broncos, and is easily one of the team’s more talented receivers, but it would also cost Denver money (about $1 million) to move on from him.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Go-to slot receiver and safety valve for Bo Nix.
Reynolds pretty obviously projects to be the team’s primary slot receiver with Marvin Mims serving as the team’s ‘Z’ receiver and Courtland Sutton as the team’s ‘X’.
Beyond that, though, is an aspect of the offense that could lead to Reynolds having the most productive season of his career to date — both Mims and Sutton are receivers who like to win vertically, and one of the biggest knocks on new quarterback Bo Nix was his overly conservative nature.
With that in mind, Reynolds — the player best at winning underneath of those three — is perfectly positioned to be Nix’s security blanket, especially when considering how little Denver is likely to get from the tight end position.
What Would Define A Successful Season?
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer?
Reserve: Tim Patrick
Will He Make The Roster? Probably, but of the Denver Broncos’ top five receivers, he’s the only one with a realistic path to being released, and it’s a pretty darn realistic path.
The Broncos do have a good bit of money tied up in Patrick, and he’s a phenomenal person who’s beloved in the locker room, so they definitely would prefer not to cut him, but if his ACL and Achilles injuries have sapped his talent — which doesn’t seem far-fetched — Denver will likely cut him.
What Will His Projected Role Be? First man off the bench among the Broncos receivers who works primarily as a super-sized slot on early downs, or a post-up monster down in the redzone.
If Patrick is back to being himself, he will easily slot into the role Payton carved out for Lil’ Jordan Humphrey and supercharge it. Patrick offers the same physical mismatches that Humphrey does, only he’s a much better and more deadly receiving threat.
Beyond that, we’re all already aware of the redzone terror Patrick was, thanks to his aforementioned physical ability and receiving prowess.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Making the roster would be a success for Tim Patrick.
The Denver Broncos could free up $1.1 million by moving on from the veteran receiver, and this a team begging for cap relief.
If the torn ACL and Achilles that Patrick suffered have fundamentally changed him and made him less appealing than Lil’ Jordan Humphrey, Devaughn Vele, or Brandon Johnson, it’s unlikely the Broncos will be overly sentimental in their decision making.
That means Denver isn’t obligated to keep Patrick by either financials or optics, and that the former Utah Ute will have to make the roster entirely upon his own merit. Doing so after two devastating injuries a huge win.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? What will he look like after these injuries? That’s a mystery that still seems underrated in Broncos Country.
Courtland Sutton’s movement was hampered for two seasons after he missed an entire year with a torn ACL. We have no idea how Patrick will be moving following a torn ACL and torn Achilles in such rapid succession.
Beyond the physiological changes and the football of it all, how much Patrick has been able to walk, let alone run, let alone sprint through contact, has been dramatically reduced over these past two years. What will it look like when he’s thrown back into the deep end?
Reserve: Troy Franklin
Will He Make The Roster? Yes. Troy Franklin is a flawed prospect, but nonetheless, he should’ve been selected in the first three rounds of this draft and is a very enticing rookie.
Plus, he’s very good friends with Denver’s new, hopeful franchise quarterback.
It would be an odd note to start the relationship on if they were to release Franklin.
What Will His Projected Role Be? This is so tough to project because Franklin’s skillset largely overlaps with that of Marvin Mims.
Courtland Sutton projects to be the team’s primary ‘X’ receiver, with Josh Reynolds operating predominantly from the slot, and lastly, Mims functioning as the Broncos’ field-stretching speedy but slight ‘Z’ receiver.
‘Speedy but slight’ might be the perfect description for Troy Franklin, who routinely torched Pac-12 defenses, unless faced with physicality at the catch point or in the form of press coverage.
While Franklin is likely to share the field with Mims some, that personnel grouping should be a rarity, at least until the two young receiver’s games develop enough to be more varied or distinguishable from one another.
With that in mind, Franklin’s role this first season will likely be a backup who rotates in occasionally for Mims to keep the latter fresh. That said, with Mims currently standing as the team’s most promising young weapon, it’s hard to imagine they’ll be sitting him much.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Beating out Tim Patrick to become the team’s No. 4 receiver.
As mentioned in the last section, Franklin’s skillset will likely relegate him to being a reserve receiver for at least his rookie season, but he could certainly still emerge as the best receiver off the bench for Denver — ahead of Patrick.
That demand shouldn’t be too much either, as both Patrick and Franklin are unknown commodities, with Patrick not playing an NFL game since his last two career-altering injuries, and Franklin not playing an NFL game period. The range of outcomes is wide, and plenty of then feature the rookie edging out the injured veteran Denver can financially part with.
Plus, such a victory would be pretty beneficial
Last year, the Broncos’ No. 4 receiver finished the year with 58% more targets, 46% more receptions, 75% more yards and 33% more touchdowns than their No. 5 receiver. That increased work load could also aide Bo Nix’s acclimation to the NFL.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer?
Thunderdome: Lil’ Jordan Humphrey vs. Devaughn Vele vs. Brandon Johnson
Will They Make The Roster? At least one of this group is likely to make the roster.
The tier drop between the Broncos’ receivers No. 5 and No. 6 is so distinct that the team could easily choose to just keep five, but all three players in this tier would help answer a need for the Broncos at the position.
For starters, as a larger-bodied ‘Z’ receiver who can work over the middle, Brandon Johnson boasts a unique skillset among the other receivers on the roster, and he was incredibly reliable last year, as demonstrated by the fact only Javonte Williams and Courtland Sutton scored more touchdowns for Denver last year.
Meanwhile, Sean Payton has consistently valued his ‘power slot’ receivers, which is why Humphrey got so much play last year. If Payton values this role over what Johnson provides, the sixth receiver spot will likely go to the more impressive option between Humphrey and Vele.
What Will Their Projected Role Be? If Johnson gets the job, he’ll be used as a change-of-pace at Z to the lighter and faster Marvin Mims Jr. and Troy Franklin.
If Vele or Humphrey win the job, they’ll be used as super-sized slots, who can aid the run game with their size and physicality advantage, while also being viable threats through the air. With that usage in mind, the winner would likely see most of their work come on early downs, and would occasionally come in to give Josh Reynolds a breather.
What Would Define A Successful Season? I titled this tier ‘The Thunderdome’ and used ‘vs.’ instead of a standard list for a reason.
This figures to be one of the most hotly contested camp battles, and it’s likely only one of these three deserving players ultimately makes the final roster. Three enter, but only one will leave as a member of the Broncos’ final 53.
Whoever wins the battle and remain on the roster can chalk up the season as a success.
What Questions Do They Still Have To Answer? Was Vele’s sudden rise at Utah merely the product of a 26-year-old beating up on teenagers?
One of the most clear-cut trends, in regard to the draft, that analytics has taught us is the fact that it’s a much better bet to draft younger prospects. The leading hypothesis for this is, these players are suddenly popping late in their collegiate careers because they’re considerably more developed (mentally and physically) than the overwhelming majority of their peers, and if there was more to it than that, they likely would’ve broken out and entered the draft sooner.
At positions like quarterback, where development regularly continues throughout a player’s 30s, the trend is less pronounced, but at a position like receiver, that is so dependent on athleticism, this trend is especially damning.
Vele will have to prove he can be the exception.
The other questions are easier to posit.
Is Brandon Johnson’s relatively unique skillset worth a roster spot? This columnist thinks so, but will Sean Payton?
And, can Lil’ Jordan Humphrey be any more than a power-slot? Because, if not, it’s odd to give him the nod over two candidates with more upside and a similar floor.
Longshots: David Sills, Jalen Virgil, Michael Bandy and Phillip Dorsett
Will They Make The Roster? Almost definitely not.
Jalen Virgil is a very intriguing talent who was listed as one of the freakiest athletes in college football several times by Bruce Feldman, and Michael Bandy received praise from DNVR’s Henry Chisholm as one of the top minicamp performers, but the room just feels too crowded for any of them to squeeze their way onto the final 53.
Four Denver Broncos are practically guaranteed their roster spots at wide receiver, and Tim Patrick isn’t far off that mark, leaving just one vacant spot available. For any of these four receivers to make the roster, they would have to outperform each of the players listed in the tier directly above them, along with all of their peers from this tier.
That’s hard to buy into when we’re less than 12 months removed from seeing Brandon Johnson and Lil’ Jordan Humphrey earn a healthy share of regular season snaps for the Denver Broncos by outperforming David Sills, Virgil, Bandy, and Phillip Dorsett for the job.
Outside of Chisholm’s praise for Bandy’s minicamp performance, there isn’t a single report or development that would suggest any of those four pass-catchers have closed the gap on Johnson or Humphrey.
What Will Their Projected Role Be? Practice squad receivers, either in Denver or elsewhere.
At most, one player will make the final roster from this group, leaving the other three to hit waivers.
So, what will happen to this cast of characters from that point on? They’ll almost certainly be added to a team’s practice squad, as all have demonstrated enough in the league that someone else will probably look to add them as an emergency backup.
That said, with the insane glut of receiving talent entering the league via the draft every single season, there’s always a healthy chance some members of this crop drop down to the USFL.
What Would Define A Successful Season? If any of them appear on an NFL roster, whether that be in Week 1, or at some point during the season as a practice squad promotion, it would represent a tremendous win for any of these receivers.
What Questions Do They Still Have To Answer? Why should the Denver Broncos bet on them over their other options?
Brandon Johnson has been a productive NFL receiver, Lil’ Jordan Humphrey is very familiar with Sean Payton’s offense and fills a clearly defined role in that offense, and Devaughn Vele was just drafted this season, seemingly to be the long-term replacement for Humphrey.
Each of those players has a simple case for deserving a roster spot. None of the players in this tier seem to have such a case, beyond Virgil’s ‘there are very few athletes built like him’. Even then, though, Virgil’s skillset is now made very redundant by the emergence of Marvin Mims and the arrival of Troy Franklin.
