Patrick Surtain II’s record-setting extension is a good reminder that a large portion of the Denver Broncos’ current roster is in limbo after this season regarding their contract.
There are 17 unrestricted and restricted free agents total, including three players from the infamous 2021 class that gave the Broncos their two best players, Patrick Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz – both of whom now have shiny new extensions.
Some of these 17 players figure to be vital contributors this year, while others are likely suiting up for their last season in orange and blue.
Sean Payton and Co. are still very clearly rebuilding this team, prioritizing the development of young talent over proven veterans such as Justin Simmons and Tim Patrick. Those cuts show this franchise is in evaluation mode, and will spend much of this season determining whether or not their upcoming free agents fit their eventual window for contention.
So who will stick around? Here are the top four players the Denver Broncos are most likely to extend next, and a look at how they can earn it.
Baron Browning, EDGE, 25 years old
Baron Browning might be the most fascinating decision on this list, as he has the most extensive range of potential outcomes. The Broncos’ starting edge rusher was one of the team’s third-round picks in 2021 and is easily one of the most athletic players on the team.
He possesses a good blend of power, bend, and overall explosiveness, making him arguably the player in the front seven with the most upside potential.
So… what’s the catch???
Along with being one of the roster’s most gifted players, Browning has simultaneously been one of its most inconsistent players – struggling with 13 missed games due to injury over the last three years and hot-and-cold flashes of production. For example, he burst onto the scene with a two-sack performance last season against the Chiefs, then had just 2.5 the rest of the year.
He could also develop more moves and counters when rushing the passer, as he presently relies too heavily on his natural gifts.
There is a scenario where he exceeds expectations and records double-digit sacks while tallying 50+ pressures on the season, as well as a scenario where he continues to be inconsistent and injury-prone and fails to generate much production.
He’s especially hard to project because, with him being so new to the position and relatively new to the league, we don’t have much of a sample to work off of.
This is undoubtedly a “prove-it” year for him, and he must reach his full potential to secure a big payday.
One thing that will work in his favor is Denver’s offseason reinforcements to the defensive line, as John Franklin-Meyers and Malcolm Roach should command more attention in the middle, alongside returning stud Zach Allen. The defensive line shouldn’t get pushed backward as much in 2024, leading to more one-on-one opportunities for Browning and the rest of the edge rushers.
If Browning hits this ceiling, a good contract comparison for him is Alex Highsmith, a late third-round selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers who earned a four-year $68 million deal following a breakout year in 2023. However, Highsmith did not have Browning’s injury history, which could play a factor in the amount of guaranteed money the Denver Broncos are willing to offer.
Should he disappoint, Browning likely falls into the Arden Key or Marcus Davenport salary range, where either Denver or another team takes a low-risk shot on him finally achieving his ceiling.
High-end projection: Four-year deal, $15-17 million average annual value (AAV)
Low-end projection: One-year deal, $5-7 million AAV
Preferred stat line for high-end extension: 50+ tackles, 12+ sacks, 4+ forced fumbles, 50+ pressures
Jonathon Cooper, EDGE, 26 years old
Funny enough, a great way to describe Jonathon Cooper is that he is the exact opposite prototype of Baron Browning, despite both coming from Ohio State.
Just a seventh-round draft pick in 2021, Browning’s fellow Buckeye doesn’t possess the same high-end draft investment or physical traits, but all he has done since entering the league is exceed expectations.
Cooper quickly worked his way up the depth chart his rookie year and became a key part of the rotation on the edge, and then eventually earned a starting job in 2023. In his first season starting Cooper had a breakout season, finishing with 72 tackles, 8.5 sacks, and 45 QB pressures.
Now, he is one of the most consistent pass rushers on the team, with a red-hot motor, solid quickness around the edge, and polished technique with his hands. He is also one of the biggest players in the room, at 258 pounds, giving him a better advantage against the run (credited with seven run-stuffs in 2023).
Unlike Browning, Cooper possesses no major red flags that would prevent the Broncos from offering an extension. While Cooper may not possess Browning’s upside, he simply has less to prove and yet could still take a step forward in his game this season and wind up recording double-digit sacks.
The Broncos will likely only be able to keep either Browning or Cooper, as both could command a lot of money and the franchise will eventually look to get rookie Jonah Elliss some starting snaps.
So, they will be forced to decide, do they value Browning’s athletic ability and potential to become an ace edge rusher, or do they value Cooper’s consistency and floor as a solid No. 2 edge rusher?
While both players’ performances this season will ultimately decide Denver’s decision, Cooper’s extension is currently the more likely outcome. Cooper has earned the right to be rewarded for overcoming expectations and being a consistent contributor during his time here.
Regarding salary, Uchenna Nwosu’s three-year, $45 million contract with the Seahawks would be a good starting point with Cooper. Nwosu had a similar breakout year in 2023 with 66 tackles and 9.5 sacks and profiles similarly, as a good secondary edge rusher.
Should Cooper have a down year, it is hard to envision him being bad enough to lose a significant amount of money, as solid rotational edge rushers like Josh Sweat and Dorance Armstrong Jr. were still able to earn $10+ million AAV.
High-end projection: Three-four year deal, $14-16 million AAV
Low-end projection: Two-three year deal, $10-12 million AAV
Preferred stat line for high-end extension: 50+ tackles, 10+ sacks, 2+ forced fumbles, 50+ pressures
Javonte Williams, RB, 24 years old
When the Broncos traded up to select Javonte Williams in the second round of the 2021 class, it was inevitable that there would be a debate over whether or not he should be extended at the end of his deal. However, most fans likely thought this discussion would center around the value of the running back market rather than his talent, as he was an excellent prospect with plenty of translatable traits going into the pros.
Unfortunately, he is not currently that same player.
After an extremely promising rookie campaign that tallied 1,219 total yards and seven touchdowns, a brutal knee injury with multiple torn ligaments suffered in Week 4 of his second season has robbed both Javonte Williams and the Denver Broncos of his remarkable gifts these past two seasons.
Miraculously, he recovered so rapidly that he ran onto the field for the first game of 2023, but it became clear as the season wore on that he was not the same player. He still finished with 1,002 total yards and five touchdowns but averaged just 3.6 YPC and lacked both the power and juice that he showcased prior to his injury.
Thankfully there are plenty of excuses that can keep Broncos Country’s optimism intact as it enters 2024.
He was legitimately still recovering from a devastating injury and likely could not spend his offseason properly training and lifting, instead opting to rehab his knee. There is also the matter of Russell Wilson being the quarterback last season, as he and Sean Payton clearly could not earn opposing defenses’ respect in 2023 and create lighter boxes for the running backs.
However, until Williams proves otherwise, that’s all they are – excuses.
Like Browning, Williams must prove that health is no longer a concern moving forward. Not only must he remain healthy this year, but he must also bounce back explosively and be at least 90% of the playmaker he was as a rookie. If he looks like his old self, then there is no doubt that it should come with some killer production, as he will be the unquestioned starting running back for the offense and likely command at least 200 carries.
Despite that, there are some major factors working against Williams. First, Sean Payton didn’t draft him. This may seem like a small detail, but the Broncos’ roster decisions this offseason indicate that nobody from the previous regimes are safe, and, unlike with Browning and Cooper, Payton may be especially picky with the offensive side of the ball.
It is also worth noting that Williams will have competition for touches in the backfield this year, as Jaleel McLaughlin appears to have taken a considerable step forward as the team’s change-of-pace back and Audric Estime figures to vulture some short-yardage touches. The team also seems to be enamored with UDFA Blake Watson, considering his surprise 53-man roster inclusion.
In spite of all the considerations against extending Williams, there is still a path for him to earn an extension if he posts a strong 2024. Thankfully, the running back market is extremely cheap, and the Broncos could bring back Williams on a relatively reasonable deal in the $7-9 million AAV range, similar to that of Joe Mixon’s three-year $25 million contract with the Texans. In the scenario where Javonte is simply “cooked,” then it would likely be slim pickings in a very crowded running-back market.
High-end projection: Three-year deal, $7-9 million AAV
Low-end projection: One-year deal, $3-5 million AAV
Preferred stat line for high-end extension: 1,300+ total yards, 10+ total touchdowns, 4.0+ YPC
Cody Barton, ILB, 27 years old
With the young members of the 2021 class finally over with, we turn our attention to a name that NFL draft fans may remember from the 2019 class – Cody Barton.
Barton was a well-liked linebacker prospect coming out of Utah that the Seattle Seahawks took in the third round. Unfortunately, his career has yet to go according to plan. He has bounced around the league with Seattle and Washington and had to settle for just a one-year $2.5 million deal from the Broncos this offseason.
Overall, this name may be a surprise extension candidate to some fans as, at first glance, he seems like purely a depth signing that the Broncos could get cheap production out of. However, despite the rocky start in his career, his game has solid traits that are unique to the Broncos’ linebacking core, which could very well help him earn a long-term deal with the team.
Known for his athleticism and ability in coverage, Barton could be the ‘Robin’ to Alex Singleton’s ‘Batman’, who is better known for his tackling, instincts, and aggressiveness. Plus, Barton is also known to be a high-IQ player who can rack up tackles, credited by PFF with 83 solo tackles in 2023.
Check out LTB’s Robby Davis’s article on Barton for a more in-depth breakdown of his skillset.
Barton’s path to a future with the Broncos lies less in racking up pure volume stats and more in taking advantage of a potential opportunity, namely Alex Singleton’s age and contract. Singleton turns 32 this upcoming offseason and will be due seven million dollars in salary, on a contract that is very easy to move off of, as it has just one million dollars in dead cap.
If Barton has an above-average year and remains a plus contributor in coverage, the team could very easily “swap” both players by cutting Singleton and extending Barton, who is just 27. Tackle machines such as Singleton can be found for a dime a dozen, as demonstrated by the fact that’s how they originally acquired Singleton back in 2022.
Coverage linebackers are slightly rarer.
Should this scenario play out, a good contract comparison for Barton is, funny enough, Alex Singleton. Singleton earned a three-year $18 million extension with the Broncos last offseason, which is the going rate for average starting linebackers across the league. However, if Barton plays to the level his current contract suggests – a below-average rotator – then that is likely the high-end of the deal he should expect moving forward.
High-end projection: Two or three-year deal, $5-7 million AAV
Low-end projection: One-year deal, $2-4 million AAV
Preferred stat line for high-end extension: 100+ tackles, 5+ tackles for loss, 1+ interceptions
