It has been six days since the Denver Broncos beat the New York Jets 10-9, and yet the game still does not feel real. If we do in fact exist in some Matrix-like simulation, that game would be proof of the occasional glitches in the coding of our reality.
The Denver Broncos offense scored just one touchdown, went 3-for-14 on third down, and finished with just 60 yards passing and a 48% completion percentage, including a whopping -7 passing yards at halftime.
Yet, despite what was undoubtedly one of the worst offensive performances in recent memory, Denver found a way to win the game.
Perhaps more notably, Sean Payton and Co. must be big Let’s Talk Broncos fans, as the key points listed in our Week 4 preview were major reasons as to why the team narrowly escaped East Rutherford with a victory.
The Broncos controlled the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and finally established the running game, which narrowed the margins just enough for the Broncos when it mattered most.
Check out Jason Bishop’s postgame article for a more in-depth breakdown of the game.
With Week 5 on the horizon, Denver faces the Las Vegas Raiders. The Raiders are struggling in many categories and have a plethora of names on the injury report. Regardless, the Raiders should not be underestimated, as they have beaten the Broncos eight times in a row.
With that in mind, here is what we need to see from the Denver Broncos in Week 5 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders.
A Signature Game from Bo Nix
After a strong breakout performance in Week 3 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Nix not only fell back down to Earth against the Jets, but plummeted so dramatically he burrowed into the Earth’s crust like a meteor.
Okay, that may be a bit over-the-top, but a final stat line of 12-for-25 for 60 yards and a touchdown is suboptimal, to say the least, and his first half was the least productive first half we’ve seen from a quarterback since 1978.
However, two primary factors explain Nix’s struggles, starting with the weather. It was pouring rain the entire first half, which clearly affected Nix’s ability to throw. This led to many errant throws from Nix, making it tough for the offense to gain any real momentum until the second half. Notably, even Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who has played many games in poor weather conditions with Green Bay, was affected by the inclement weather.
Furthermore, Nix was playing against a respectable Jets defense that ranks fifth in points per game allowed, sixth in sacks, eighth in QB pressure rate, and 10th in defensive Expected Points Added per play. While the Broncos’ offensive line did well against the Jets’ front, New York’s secondary played lights out, leaving few windows for Nix to target.
These factors make this performance an acceptable “burn the tape” kind of game, as nothing was going right for the Broncos on offense against an upper-echelon defense.
Having said that, there will be no get-out-of-jail-free card if Nix and the Broncos offense fail to absolutely light up the Raiders defense this week.
Despite the star power from Maxx Crosby and Christian Wilkins, the Raiders’ defense ranks 24th in ppg allowed, 24th in sacks, 22nd in pressure rate, and 21st in defensive EPA/play, which is a substantial step down from the Jets’ defense. They are also ranked 24th in rushing yards allowed per game.
Essentially, The Raiders allow many points, can’t get many sacks or pressures, and struggle against the run. This is the perfect opportunity for Nix to bounce back and prove that it really was the rain and a good defense that caused his struggles last week.
If Nix has a good command of the offense, stays on time with his progressions, and maintains good footwork, then the big play opportunities should be there. Furthermore, the Broncos should have an improved running game to help balance out the offensive game plan.
Much like Week 3 against Tampa, look for Nix to have a “signature” performance this week. If Nix has a final stat line that includes 250+ yards passing and 2+ touchdowns – and looks good while doing so – that will instill a lot of confidence in Broncos Country moving forward.
Slow Down Brock Bowers
The week’s big headline has been the ongoing trade speculation about the Las Vegas Raiders’ star wide receiver Davante Adams, who was ruled out this week due to a ‘hamstring injury.’
While this is obviously a massive loss for the Raiders, is it crazy to suggest that Adams wasn’t even the scariest matchup for the Broncos on defense?
The Raiders’ first-round rookie tight end Brock Bowers has been off to a fantastic start this year.
Bowers has accumulated 200 yards receiving through four games, averaging 10.8 yards per reception. He has also been graded very highly by most advanced metrics, boasting +0.40 EPA per target (+0.90 EPA/target against press coverage), +7.2% Catch Rate Over Expectation, and five yards of average separation. He has been especially effective from the slot, where his CROE jumps up to +28.9%.
This comes as no surprise to NFL draft fans who followed Bowers at Georgia, as he was widely regarded as one of the best tight end prospects in recent memory. He truly is a matchup nightmare that can line up all over the field.
With opposing No. 1 wide receivers, the Denver Broncos will typically just count on Patrick Surtain II to erase them from the entire game, which usually works. In this instance, Bowers being a tight end makes things a little tricky, as Surtain has not historically followed opposing teams’s tight ends, and he doesn’t have much history of following receivers into the slot either.
Other contributors like Justin Strnad, Cody Barton, Brandon Jones, PJ Locke, and Ja’Quan McMillian will have to really step up when covering Bowers.
Furthermore, the Broncos’ defense has yet to play an elite tight end, making this matchup a relative unknown for this unit. Players who have played well to date, such as safety Brandon Jones and linebacker Cody Barton, may not be good matchups 1-on-1 against a great athlete like Bowers, as it’s an aspect of the defense that hasn’t been stress-tested.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph will have to shine with a good game plan, as Broncos fans are all too familiar with his defense’s history covering tight ends. Thankfully, the loss of Adams makes things much easier for Joseph, as he can focus most of the attention on Bowers.
If the Broncos can hold Bowers to less than 50 yards receiving on the day with zero touchdowns, they will greatly improve their chances of winning.
Break the Streak
Before the Denver Broncos’ promising win against the Kansas City Chiefs last year, the Chiefs had beaten Denver 16 times consecutively. While that is unacceptable, at least the Chiefs have been consistently great during that span.
The Raiders, on the other hand, have consistently been fighting for last place in the division with the Broncos and Chargers. Yet, they also have a long winning streak against the Broncos, with eight straight wins since 2020.
This should make every player and coach’s blood boil, as the Raiders have seemingly had their number ever since the franchise moved to Las Vegas. If the Chiefs were like a thorn in their side, then the Raiders have been closer to a mini push-pin, and yet the Broncos still can’t figure out how to beat them.
Denver will call upon Sean Payton to end a streak again this week. Thankfully, Vegas has been mediocre, at best, on offense and has struggled on defense. They are also dealing with a heaping pile of injuries.
As a result, the Broncos find themselves as three-point favorites this week, an honor they likely won’t experience often this season.
Despite the Raiders’ inconsistencies, the Broncos must come well-prepared and ready to play, as this matchup has “trap game” potential written all over it.
If they lose it will feel like deja vu for Broncos Country.
Every Broncos team of the past decade has had instances where they won games that they weren’t supposed to – much like their wins against the Buccaneers and Jets – but then failed to handle business against highly beatable teams, like the Raiders.
Sean Payton was tasked with changing the culture and bringing winning football back to the city of Denver. Games like this are a huge test of his ability to do so, as it cannot be more of the same moving forward.
