Denver Broncos Stock Up/Stock Down: Bo Nix Proves To Be QB Denver’s Long Awaited

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes in the second quarter during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) passes in the second quarter during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Happy days have returned to Broncos Country and to the Denver Broncos.

The past eight years have been filled to the brim with heartache and worry as to whether or not the Broncos franchise would ever emerge from the viscous sludge puddle it had chosen to drown itself in.

Now, the Broncos have risen from the depths and have announced their return to the realm of legitimacy with a thunderous dispatching of the playoff-bound Atlanta Falcons and an ever-improving young signal-caller at the helm.

Which figures are shining brightest during the restoration of this franchise, and what aspects of the Broncos are continuing to come up short? Let’s look.

Last Week’s Stock Report
Week 10 Stock Report

DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and wide receiver Lil'Jordan Humphrey (84) celebrate after a second quarter touchdown during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) and wide receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey (84) celebrate after a second-quarter touchdown during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Bo Nix

Bo Nix landed in this same category following the narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, as he seemingly experienced a watershed moment and constructed his best performance as a pro up until that point.

Now, merely one week later, we are somehow having that same conversation once again, and what an incredible boon that is for Broncos Country.

Some Nix doubters have highlighted the wounded and talent-poor nature of the Falcons’ defense to ding his outing, but Nix isn’t the first rookie quarterback to face a defense with a poor pass rush and several defensive backs missing, and yet we’ve never seen this level of production from an NFL QB with so little experience.

Nix’s Week 11 box score combination of 307 passing yards, four passing touchdowns, and an 84.9% completion percentage at over 9.0 yards per attempt are marks never before seen from a rookie passer.

Beyond that, his passer rating of 145.0 is the second-best single-game passer rating a Broncos quarterback has ever posted, trailing just one game from Peyton Manning’s record-setting 2013 season, and notably landing one spot ahead of Manning’s unforgettable seven-touchdown game.

With every week that passes, Nix demonstrates a better understanding of the offensive architecture and what each play is asking of him, a greater sense of calm and feel for the game, a firmer grasp on the mental demands of the position, and improved accuracy on the run and in the pocket.

On film, it’s evident that he’s been given the leeway to adjust play calls at the line of scrimmage and set his own protections. Making that even richer is the fact that, unlike what we’ve seen from Caleb Williams this year, Nix is turning those responsibilities into positive opportunities.

He’s not tinkering with the protection or killing a play at the line just to do it. There’s intention behind it. Two of Nix’s four touchdowns on Sunday came on plays where Nix either swapped the original play call out for a different one or adjusted the protection plan pre-snap.

Then, once the ball is snapped, you can see him working to, and making, reads on the backside of passing concepts. He’s manipulating superstar DBs like Jessie Bates with only his eyes, like a veteran would.

Now, it should be noted that the offense, as presently designed, isn’t asking a ton from Nix post-snap. That’s not too atypical for a rookie, but it does represent a form of training wheels that won’t always be bolted onto this offense, and that Nix will have to eventually evolve past needing. Plus, considering the dramatic evolution we’ve already seen in his game, that requisite growth shouldn’t be a serious concern.

It’s also important to be aware of, as it further silences the Sean Payton debate.

Ever since it became clear last season that the Payton-Wilson marriage was headed for divorce, a portion of the fanbase has wondered aloud whether or not Payton was the cancer at the root of Denver’s offensive problems. Seeing him dig so deep in his bag to unearth some wildly creative touchdowns that gave Nix remarkably easy touchdowns is a positive. Broncos Country should just be aware it isn’t always that easy.

Look no further than the three quarterbacks who presently rule the skies — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

Each of those three passers has had to re-invent their games multiple times over to become the versions of themselves they currently are. Defensive coordinators will flummox Nix at some point in the near future, and he will have to develop different areas of his game to stay ahead of them.

Thankfully for Broncos Country, no quarterback in this class has demonstrated a greater aptitude for growth than Nix.

Nik Bonitto

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Development in the NFL is seldom linear, but even with that in mind, it’s near impossible to not get giddy about the present trajectory of Denver Broncos’ third-year edge rusher Nik Bonitto.

After barely existing on the periphery as a lineless background extra during his rookie campaign, Bonitto exploded onto the scene in 2023 as the Broncos’ best per-snap pass rusher. With 8.0 sacks, he trailed Jonathon Cooper by 0.5 for the team lead, despite playing 312 fewer snaps. He also finished second on the team in pressures, with 24 to Zach Allen’s 27, with 387 fewer snaps than Allen tallied.

In 2024, he has, once again, taken a step in his development more dramatic than anyone was projecting. Bonitto is currently tied for second in the NFL in sacks, with 9.0, and ninth in pressures, with 25.

Plus, Bonitto has the hot hand. He is averaging a sack per game over the last nine weeks, and the only QB to completely escape his clutches during that span was Lamar Jackson — the most unsackable quarterback in the league.

For comparison’s sake, the legendary Von Miller averaged 0.78 sacks per game during his tenure in Denver, and 1.16 sacks per game during his most productive season in orange and blue — the only time in his career he’s averaged more than 0.91 sacks per game over the course of the season.

Just as important though is the fact that Bonitto has become an every-down defender for Vance Joseph’s defense.

As a prospect, and throughout his first two NFL seasons, Bonitto was a major liability in run defense, leading to him being relegated to the role of ‘designated pass rusher’ — a luxury position that only sees the field in obvious passing situations. Last year, the former Sooner proved how valuable he could still be in a reduced role, but this year, he’s proven that there’s no need to shrink his role.

Part of the reason the Broncos felt so confident trading Baron Browning away was the fact that Bonitto was playing more than 75% of Denver’s run defense snaps, meaning the staff no longer felt the need to shelter him from those scenarios. The coaches have also been rewarded for their faith. Bonitto took the increased role and ran with it, and although he still isn’t a difference-making run-defender, he’s nowhere near being the problem area he once was.

The Entire Denver Broncos Defense

Denver Broncos Head Coach Vance Joseph during the NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers on December 9, 2018 at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, CA.
SANTA CLARA, CA – DECEMBER 09: Denver Broncos Head Coach Vance Joseph during the NFL football game between the Denver Broncos and the San Francisco 49ers on December 9, 2018 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA. (Photo by Cody Glenn/Icon Sportswire)

A few weeks ago, the Denver Broncos finally popped up on the collective radars of NFL national media.

With a game against the Baltimore Ravens — the league’s most potent offense at the time — up next, everyone wanted to see how Vance Joseph’s crew would measure up.

Some national media detractors pointed out the weak slate of opposing quarterbacks Denver faced through the first eight games, and that Baltimore would tell us what the Broncos really were. But who could blame them? Half of the games up until that point came against Justin Fields, Gardner Minshew, Spencer Rattler and Bryce Young.

To make matters worse, Lamar Jackson seemingly proved them right. He posted an EPA/dropback north of 0.841, which for the sake of comparison, is nearly three times higher than the average NFL MVP winner over the last five years.

Thankfully, back-to-back sterling performances against high-end quarterbacks and threatening offensive arsenals have assuaged those concerns and landed Vance Joseph’s defense here.

Isolating the last two weeks, the Denver Broncos defense ranks fifth in EPA/play allowed and third in defensive success rate. All of the teams that rank ahead of the Denver defense over the past two weeks in either category had a full game against Jaguars backup quarterback Mac Jones or Cowboys backup quarterback Cooper Rush to buoy their sample.

Unsurprisingly, considering the fact the Broncos drew the task of defending Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes, the defense didn’t rank among the elites in terms of EPA/dropback allowed during that stretch (.050, 13th).

Nonetheless, Vance Joseph and Co. were much better than they were against Jackson and the Ravens, as they surrendered an EPA/dropback of just .030 and held both Mahomes (.133 vs. everyone else, .121 vs. Denver) and Cousins (.139 vs. everyone else, -.099 vs Denver) under the EPA/dropback averages they recorded against all other opponents.

Now, it seems much more likely the one-game blip against Baltimore was the mirage rather than the Broncos’ defensive dominance over the first eight weeks of the season.

DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on in the first half during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 6: Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on in the first half during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

This Section of the Article

This column has existed for six entire seasons of Denver Broncos football, and this portion of the column has never been as difficult as it is this week.

This team appears to have excellent ownership from everything we’ve seen so far. Mediocre selections from George Paton’s most maligned classes are developing into superstars or integral offensive chess pieces. The team is more well-coached than it has been at any point since at least the Gary Kubiak era, if not even further back than that. The quarterback bugaboo which strangled any notions of Broncos optimism in the proverbial cradle each of the past eight seasons has finally been vanquished.

Alright, so that’s a no-go on the starring roles, but how about some supporting characters? What does the defense look like?

Well, Vance Joseph is getting the defense to perform way above its overall level of talent, as evidenced by the fact a squad with merely three big-money pieces, one of which doubles as the D’s only first-round talent, has been elite by EPA, DVOA, or any other metric you’d prefer, even the old-fashioned ones.

The cornerback group seemingly has no weak spot, with Pat Surtain II somehow playing at a newfound level of excellence, Riley Moss performing like an idyllic Robin to Surtain’s Batman, and Ja’Quan McMillian measuring up to some incredibly tough assignments.

Devon Key is the defensive weak point, but can anyone honestly say they feel worse about him now than they did after the Ravens game? Probably not with a straight face.

The linebacking group which seemed to have the worst collection of talent of any NFL linebacking room has been a consistent point of strength, with Cody Barton making game-changing plays with regularity, and Justin Strnad becoming an above-average starter has maybe been the most pleasant Broncos surprise in a season full of them.

The defensive front is experiencing career years from five different players (Nik Bonitto, Jonathon Cooper, Zach Allen, D.J. Jones, and Malcolm Roach), and has two first-year NFL players (Jonah Elliss and Dondrea Tillman) wowing in a limited role.

Shoot. So no luck on defense. Special Teams?

Well, last week was an atrocity for several reasons, and this week, in spite of losing beloved Special Teams Assistant Mike Westhoff to retirement, they rebounded. Plus, they had a number of terrific returns from Marvin Mims Jr.

No dice there.

So, that leaves the offense.

Safe to say Bo Nix isn’t falling into this bucket, and Javonte Williams’ bounceback game will save him from landing here again. Lil’Jordan Humphrey made another blooper-reel-worthy play, but he also had an explosive TD scamper that more than negates his mistake.

Maybe one could squint and circle a ‘Greg Dulcich’ or ‘Jaleel McLaughlin’.

That said, nothing has really changed with Dulcich or this TE group in the past several weeks, so that selection would be a reach. Meanwhile Williams’ Week 11 resurgence following a Week 10 dip sends a clear warning about putting too much stock in a one-week workload drought.

Finally, the offensive line solidified its status as the league’s best pass-protection group with a lights-out showing against the Falcons.

In the past, officials, media-constructed narratives, and even portions of the fanbase have wound up here. Does anyone from those sects of our society deserve to land there now?

Yes, having a retired PFF analyst say Nix’s low average depth of target and long time-to-throw suggests he has more room to grow isn’t ideal, but it also isn’t worthy of a rant here.

The defensiveness Broncos Country has had regarding Nix is a little tiresome, but it’s hard to say the ‘receipt-keeping’ took a hit this week after the rookie gunslinger nuked Raheem Morris and Co.

So, damn.

For the first time ever, the white flag is being waved.

Actually, wait. I’ve got it.

The Three Other AFC West Teams

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is pressured by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (42) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High on October 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 29: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) is pressured by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (42) in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High on October 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

“Denver learned how to draft a quarterback. Uh oh” – *Happy Gilmore voice*

There.

That’s more like it.

Picture of Zach Segars
Zach Segars