The Denver Broncos are one win away from clinching their first playoff appearance since 2015, and have already clinched their first winning season since 2016.
For anyone under the age of 11, the idea of playoff Broncos football is nothing more than a work of fiction or the most distant, foggiest memory they possess. As soon as Thursday, that reality can become a dark vestige of the past.
Even though some stars stood out this week, no group associated with the Denver Broncos is a bigger ‘Stock Up’ than Broncos Country, for that precise reason.
Who were those other stars, and who were the players that struggled this past week? Let’s look.
Last Week’s Stock Report
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP
The Denver Broncos’ Chances of Bringing Home ‘Defensive Player of the Year’
Despite boasting several legendary defensive stars over the years, like Champ Bailey and Von Miller, the Denver Broncos have only had one season where one of their players was named the Defensive Player of the Year — 1978, when newly minted Hall-of-Famer Randy Gradishar took home the trophy.
Now, the odds are better than they have been in over a decade for Gradishar to gain some company in his lonely club of Broncos DPOYs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers superstar EDGE, TJ Watt, is currently the odds-on favorite (-150) to win the award, but Pat Surtain II (+350) and Nik Bonitto (+700) are right on his heels, in second and third place, respectively.
Nik Bonitto is having an INSANE season and his performance has him in the Defensive Player of the Year conversation 🔥 He’s quickly become a household name – but the new found attention doesn’t phase him 👏 His teammates make sure he knows tho 💯 pic.twitter.com/Ru3e0AeVBC
— Romi Bean (@Romi_Bean) December 18, 2024
Surtain bolstered his case with another lockdown performance, eliminating whichever Colts wide receiver he found himself matched up against.
Per Pro Football Focus, the only receptions he allowed were in zone coverage, when he was playing off either a tight end or a running back. Richardson barely even risked looking his way when Surtain was manned up with one of the Colts’ WRs, targeting him just once in those circumstances. Overall, Richardson finished the day 2-for-4 for 19 yards and an interception when challenging the All-Pro corner.
Rt to vote
— Matt (@LandOfNix) December 18, 2024
Patrick Surtain has been on a generational level of play this szn#ProBowlVote +@PatSurtainll pic.twitter.com/Usl0zOU90A
The biggest obstacle to Surtain winning the award now might be his health, as he was hobbled with an ankle injury at the end of the victory over Indianapolis.
Your 2024 Defensive Player of the Year… Patrick Surtain II pic.twitter.com/YDxzLlAqbK
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) December 16, 2024
Bonitto also had a tremendous game. He boasted a pass-rush win rate of 20.0%, created four total pressures, and added 0.5 sacks to his season-long tally. Although it’s mildly disappointing he fell off his remarkable sack-tallying pace, it’s also completely understandable given the fact that Richardson is one of the league’s most difficult QBs to bring down.
"BONITTO. UNBELIEVABLE."@Broncos INTERCEPT A DOUBLE PASS FOR A PICK SIX pic.twitter.com/Rt2NlHTYNT
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 16, 2024
Plus, Bonitto more than made up for it by scoring a touchdown in a second consecutive game, ultimately sealing the game for the Denver Broncos.
George Paton
Let’s praise George Paton without diving into the ever-so-tempting pool of revisionist history.
He’s earned his criticism and, frankly, deserved to be fired in favor of “Sean Payton’s guy” once the Denver Broncos acquired the legendary head coach. Across the 105 years of NFL history, no other GM is in the conversation for both ‘the top-five worst trades in NFL history’ and ‘the top-five worst coach hirings in NFL history’.
Hell, nearly everyone with just one entry in either of those two lists was promptly ousted by their respective franchises.
Yet, in spite of all the ironclad causes for his removal, the Walton-Penner Ownership Group and Sean Payton opted for patience and co-habitation, and the results have been so resoundingly positive that it’s hard to even know where to begin.
Considering Paton’s reputation as a drafter, it seems sensible to start there.
I could listen to Paton say, "Nik Bonitto at 64. Holy fuck!" literally all day long. Man knew what a steal that was. pic.twitter.com/s7rcbtwGQc
— Sean Baldwin (@SeanBaldwinX) December 17, 2024
Prior to Payton’s arrival, Paton’s only meaningful victory during his time as Denver Broncos GM was his 2021 draft class, as the 2022 class promptly fell right on its face.
In these past two seasons, the Broncos have not only found a bevy of new contributors through the draft, with Bo Nix, Marvin Mims, Riley Moss, Devaughn Vele, Jonah Elliss, Troy Franklin, Audric Estime, and Alex Forsyth joining the fray, but they’ve also managed to resurrect the 2022 class and take the 2021 class to new heights.
7th round “too old” throwaway pick Devaughn Vele has a EPA of 22.3 which would rank 5th.
— Liam Hammer (@thestathammer) December 17, 2024
That’s above generational talent MHJ
Tidy piece of biz from George Paton https://t.co/twMbjTGntX
Nik Bonitto is now among the top three candidates for Defensive Player of the Year and Luke Wattenberg is a valued starter on the offense. Pat Surtain II has also elevated his game to the level of becoming one of the DPOY frontrunners, and Quinn Meinerz and Jonathon Cooper took another step forward in their development and earned lucrative extensions as a result. Plus, Cooper’s leap and subsequent extension enabled Paton to flip Baron Browning for a draft pick.
The financials have also gotten a lot cleaner for George Paton and the rest of the front office.
After tanking the organization with terrible contracts for Russell Wilson and Randy Gregory, the team has been much more shrewd with the deals they’re willing to give out, and now have one of the healthiest cap outlooks in the entire league.
As soon as next season, the Denver Broncos project to have less than $1 million in dead cap, outside of the remaining Wilson debt they still have to pay off.
Plus, there are no bad contracts on the horizon that should have Denver uneasy, as Surtain, Meinerz, Cooper, Gregory, and Garett Bolles have all recently signed big-ticket extensions that all came in below their projected values, and gave the team a quiver full of contingencies in case anything goes south.
Finally got around to looking at the Bolles contract details and man… Denver got a steal here. pic.twitter.com/YIwuDyYrkG
— Jacob Romano (@JTR_14) December 16, 2024
The decisions with veterans from other franchises have also gotten much better, most notably with the additions of Zach Allen, John Franklin-Meyers, and Mike McGlinchey.
Skepticism about how much of this is ultimately George Paton and how much is Sean Payton is well-founded, especially considering details like the fact that Paton wasn’t even allowed to be part of Payton’s interview process, but ultimately, who cares?
The Denver Broncos front office is making good decisions and is building a fearsome adversary for the rest of the NFL to deal with.
Denver Broncos Special Teams
An underrated part of the Denver Broncos turnaround under Sean Payton has been the squad’s special teams going from a comedic farce to one of the league’s elite operations.
In 2022, Denver ranked 29th in special teams DVOA, and, even upon diving down to the individual categories of ‘field goal/extra point kicking, kickoff coverage, kickoff return, punt coverage, and punt return’, it was impossible to find a single area where the Broncos ranked among the top half of the NFL.
Now, the results have completely flipped.
Marvin Mims Jr. set up the scoring drive with this punt return 🏃♂️
— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024
📺: #INDvsDEN on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/CU9LHNHJau
The Broncos rank 4th in special teams DVOA this season and rank no worse than 13th in any of those individual categories.
They even perform well in old-school stats, as Wil Lutz has been perfect on extra points and 27-for-30 on field goals, though one of those misses was a block and another was a 60-yard end-of-half attempt.
Marvin Mims is first in the NFL in yards per punt return (minimum 10 returns), as he’s averaging 16.1 yards over his 26 attempts. He also won AFC Special Teams Player of the Week this past week.
Marvin Mims is the AFC Special Teams Player of the Week. But really, he does it all 🔥 https://t.co/TnqfHA22lD pic.twitter.com/qKrFofYMDN
— Romi Bean (@Romi_Bean) December 18, 2024
Finally, Riley Dixon ranks fourth both in the total number of times he’s pinned an opponent inside the 20-yard line and the rate at which he’s pinning those opponents inside the 20-yard line.
Kris Abrams-Draine
After Levi Wallace was burnt to a crisp on Monday Night Football against the Cleveland Browns, Broncos Country was understandably petrified about the outlook at cornerback as they awaited Riley Moss’s return from injury.
Kris Abrams-Draine rapidly eased those concerns after devouring a buffet of Indianapolis Colts receivers.
Not insinuating I got this evaluation right …but it was fun watching Kris Abrams-Draine ball out against the Colts pic.twitter.com/LjouOzsv8H
— Chris Trapasso 🏈 (@ChrisTrapasso) December 17, 2024
On 39 coverage snaps, the Colts tried KAD six times and completed just one pass. Only Sauce Gardner and AJ Terrell, two of the NFL’s elite cornerbacks, played more snaps while allowing one reception or less this week.
As the cherry on top, Abrams-Draine finished the day with more pass breakups (two) than completions allowed.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN
Bo Nix
It’s Bo Nix’s rookie year, so ups and downs are to be expected. With that said, these past two outings from the No. 12 overall pick have probably been the most disappointing lull of his young career.
The first two games were ghastly, sure, but that was a rookie making his NFL debut against a pair of ferocious defenses. Meanwhile, Nix’s ugly display against the Colts and Browns demonstrated a relative backslide after demonstrating so much growth over the seven weeks prior, and it came against underwhelming defensive units.
After a turnover-prone first two weeks, Nix had done an excellent job protecting the ball from Week 3 through Week 12, turning the ball over just twice, and boasting a league-low turnover-worthy-play rate of just 0.8%. Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, and Patrick Mahomes were the quarterbacks lagging just behind Nix in that metric over that stretch.
JFM telling Bo Nix “got your back” after his third interception of the day and the defense then making a play to force a turnover means something to me ❤️❤️❤️ pic.twitter.com/LAlWhuFjiY
— Normie (@EpicNormie__) December 18, 2024
Unfortunately, the past two games have seen Nix swing to the exact opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to turnover-worthy plays. Nix’s TWP rate of 6.3% over the last three weeks is the fourth-worst in the NFL over that stretch, trailing only Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, and Will Levis — all three of whom have been benched this week.
For the Denver Broncos to not only reach the playoffs but actually win a playoff game, Nix will have to play more like he did from Weeks 8 through 12
Denver Broncos Run Game
The Denver Broncos’ rushing attack is bordering on being labeled a crime against humanity after its pitiful display against the NFL’s second-worst run defense.
Despite getting one of the juiciest matchups they’ll see all season, Denver was still completely unable to get anything going on the ground. They combined for 72 yards on 27 attempts, for a pitiful average of 2.7 yards per carry. Denver’s backs were especially ineffective, with 49 yards across their 18 carries.
It was one thing when Bo Nix was leading the team in carries and rushing yards in Week 2 against the Pittsburgh Steelers and their fearsome front. It’s another thing when the rushing attack is so hopeless against one of the league’s most porous units.
Plus, this concerning trend has been going on for a month now, as the Denver Broncos rushing attack ranks 31st in success rate and 27th in EPA per rush over since the road win over the Raiders.
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton’s six-game streak of 70-plus receiving yards came to an end against the Indianapolis Colts.
The star receiver seemed off for much of the day, dropping numerous passes and combining with Bo Nix to create an interception as a result of their miscommunication.
Despite being targeted nine times, Sutton reeled in just three catches for 32 yards. His catch rate hasn’t been that bad since the Denver Broncos were playing in a literal tropical storm in Week 4.
This display was especially disappointing considering how uninspiring the Colts’ collection of cornerbacks is, especially in terms of their size profile. On paper, they don’t have anyone on the roster who should be able to shut down Sutton.
My goodness, Courtland. pic.twitter.com/xuPwzydOrW
— NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) December 16, 2024
Yet, on Sunday, Sutton was effectively shut down, even though he bounced back late with a gorgeous route leading to a TD.
Denver Broncos ILBs
Cody Barton and Justin Strnad have played far above their contract value for nearly the entire season, and that unexpectedly high level of play has been critical to the Denver Broncos’ surprising season.
Nonetheless, their performance against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday was fairly grisly.
Both linebackers were regularly victimized in the run game, and Justin Strnad should be sending a bottle of wine to Jonathan Taylor for dropping the ball at the one-inch line.
JONATHAN TAYLOR… HOW ARE WE STILL DOING THIS IN THE YEAR OF OUR LORD 2024 😭😭😭 pic.twitter.com/cQ9R8FlUQ9
— NFL Hater Watch (@NFLhaterwatch) December 15, 2024
Their shortcomings were most notable in the passing game though, as Shane Steichen regularly victimized them, which is disappointing considering both Barton and Strnad are generally viewed as ‘coverage linebackers’.
When targeting one of Denver’s two starting linebackers, Anthony Richardson was 6-for-7 for 81 yards and four first downs.
When targeting literally anyone else on the Broncos, Richardson was 11-for-31 for 91 yards and four first downs.
