Finally, after a nine-year drought, the Denver Broncos are in the playoffs.
After beating the Kansas City Chiefs 38-0, the Broncos clinched the final playoff spot and their first postseason trip since Super Bowl 50, when Peyton Manning was still the team’s quarterback.
The Broncos face a daunting task in the 13-4 Buffalo Bills, led by one of the best players in the world – star quarterback Josh Allen. The game seems like it may be too much to handle for a young Broncos roster handicapped by a 50 million dollar dead cap hit to the elderly Russell Wilson, but there are some key matchup advantages Denver can use against Buffalo to secure the win.
Buffalo Bills Offense vs Denver Broncos Defense
While the Denver offense and Buffalo defense are respectable units, the main event of this matchup will be when the Bills offense, led by Josh Allen, takes on Vance Joseph’s Broncos defense, led by Pat Surtain II.
In this clash of titans, the run game will decide who gets to dictate how the game goes and it should be an exceptional duel, considering the Bills’ potent rushing attack and Denver’s stout run defense.
Buffalo Bills rushing offense – by the numbers.
Bills Rush O vs. stacked boxes (7 or more defenders)
- 203 attempts (9th)
- 829 yards (10th)
- 4.1 yards per carry (11th)
- .083 EPA per rush (3rd)
Bills Rush O vs. light boxes (6 or fewer defenders)
- 243 attempts (16th)
- 1002 yards (19th)
- 4.1 yards per carry (22nd)
- -.029 EPA per rush (9th)
Denver Broncos rushing defense – by the numbers.
Using stacked boxes (7 or more defenders)
- 164 attempts (18th)
- 591 yards allowed (16th)
- 3.6 yards per carry allowed (11th)
- .96 EPA per rush allowed (18th)
Using light boxes (6 or fewer defenders)
- 225 attempts (25th)
- 768 yards allowed (5th)
- 3.4 yards per carry allowed (best)
- -.205 EPA per rush allowed (5th)
The numbers tell you what the film shows – the Bills will be bringing one of the best run games in football to the field against what has been a top-flight rushing defense all season long.
The Bills are surprisingly one of the highest-volume rushing teams in the league despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback.
Buffalo is forced to lean on that run game because of their struggles to create separation in the passing game, which creates a lot of volatility, just because of the more sporadic nature that man coverage can present when an offense doesn’t have a go-to route winner.
Less separation, fewer clean windows, limiting clear reads, and, in Buffalo’s case, receivers who struggle to get open all feed that volatility, which can present major problems for the Bills’ attack.
Let James Cook in the snow ⛄️
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) December 2, 2024
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/LK6gOjlqFc
In an attempt to limit this volatility, the Bills have leaned on their run game to sustain themselves down to down. Behind one of the best lines in football, the Bills, coordinated by one-time Sean Payton assistant Joe Brady, execute a variety of different run plays and have established themselves as one of the best running teams in football.
Additionally, the Bills have the highest percentage of snaps with six offensive linemen on the field this season. The Bills have used reserve lineman Alec Anderson more than any team uses their sixth lineman, and the results have been fantastic for the offense.
As a result, teams have responded by playing heavier boxes to match the bodies that Joe Brady puts on the field. Buffalo’s offense has seen the highest rate of eight-plus man boxes in the NFL, which opens up the shot plays for Allen and partially explains why they have such a high explosive play rate through the air.
It all works in tandem but it also presents a glimpse at how the Broncos could exploit the Bills’ offensive weaknesses.
Zach Allen final rankings among interior DL , per @NextGenStats
— Tyler Gorse (@Tyler_Gorse_) January 8, 2025
QB Pressures: 1st (67)
QB Pressure % (min. 700 snap): 2nd (11.3%)
Run Stuff% (Min. 200 snaps): T-2nd (6.5%)
Run Stuffs: 2nd (20)
Get-off(min. 700 snap): T-2nd (0.91)
Stop EPA(min. 700 snap): 3rd (-45.0)
Sacks… pic.twitter.com/P56BT7uYTh
While most teams have to play heavier boxes to account for the Bills run game, the Broncos are uniquely equipped to handle their attack.
There has not been a better rush defense this season when using light boxes than the Denver Broncos, as the Denver front tends to dominate opposing offensive lines, allowing coordinator Vance Joseph to have more flexibility with his fronts and coverages.
There haven’t been many ways to force the Bills into negative plays, but the running game is one of them. The Bills have a 22.6% run-stuff rate on runs this season, which is the seventh-worst rate in the NFL. On the other end, the Broncos have stuffed 27.0% of runs this season, which is the second-best rate in the NFL.
Zach Allen nuking a drive by himself with a run stuff and a pressure pic.twitter.com/795xCek0wn
— Derrik Klassen (@QBKlass) September 17, 2024
Even with the league’s best pass rush, it is going to be difficult to sack Josh Allen or force him into turnovers, but if the Broncos can force the Bills into unfavorable down and distances through the running game, it will allow Denver to be able to string together some stops.
Even more importantly, if they can defend the run with lighter boxes and be able to dedicate more resources to coverage, blitzing, or spying Allen and be able to play man-to-man coverage on the outside against this underwhelming Buffalo receiving core, the Bills could be in trouble on that side of the ball.
Denver Broncos Offense vs Buffalo Bills Defense
When Bo Nix and Co. have the ball, there is potential for fireworks in this game.
While the trench battle between Buffalo’s offense and Denver’s defense is a clash of titans, the battle between the Broncos’ ground attack and the Bills’ run defense is more of a ‘moveable force against a stoppable object’.
Denver Broncos rushing offense – by the numbers.
Broncos rush O vs. stacked boxes (7 or more defenders)
- 178 attempts (175h)
- 720 yards (15th)
- 4.0 yards per carry (12th)
- .041 EPA per rush (4th)
Broncos rush O vs. light boxes (6 or fewer defenders)
- 234 attempts (21st)
- 825 yards (27th)
- 3.5 yards per carry (30th)
- -.247 EPA per rush (30th)
Buffalo Bills rushing defense – by the numbers.
Using stacked boxes (7 or more defenders)
- 163 attempts (19th)
- 613 yards (17th)
- 3.8 yards per carry (13th)
- .191 EPA per rush (6th)
Using non-stacked boxes (6 or fewer defenders)
- 249 attempts (17th)
- 1169 yards (12th)
- 4.7 yards per carry (25th)
- -.205 EPA per rush (11th)
The numbers paint an interesting story. The Broncos’ rushing attack has been better against light boxes than stacked boxes, while the Bills, defense defends the run better with heavier boxes. Also, the Broncos haven’t had a very explosive rushing attack, while the Bills allow an explosive run at an NFL-high 13.1% of the time.
Something has to give.
While it is difficult to identify who will take advantage on the ground, there are more clear advantages for Denver through the air.
The Buffalo defense is a ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ unit.
When they get pressure, they have the fourth-best EPA per dropback. When they don’t, that number drops to 30th. It is the largest discrepancy of any team, and this plays well into Denver’s hands as they are the best pass-protecting unit in football.
If the Broncos are able to limit the opponent’s pass rush as well as they have all season, Denver should be able to move the ball through the air. Plus, one way they can limit the pass rush is to incorporate the screen game, which will be a major factor in this matchup and has consistently been a security blanket for Sean Payton’s attack during Bo Nix’s rookie campaign.
Since Week 10, when Marvin Mims started to see consistent usage, the Broncos have been the best screen team in football. They have the third-best EPA per play on passes behind the sticks and have the most explosive plays on passes behind the sticks.
Every Marvin Mims backfield touch that went for good gain, with a nasty rep of buck sweep vs the Chiefs at the end. Easily my favorite decision the coaching staff made this season and it is one piece of tangible proof we have a great offensive staff. They saw a player struggling… pic.twitter.com/SkMxwNTcGc
— Robby (@Robby_NFL) January 10, 2025
On these same plays this season, the Bills defense is 17th in EPA allowed per play and 27th in success rate on these backfield targets. The Bills have seen the most attempts behind the line of scrimmage in the NFL, and have given up the second-most yards of any team on those plays. ‘
Additionally, they have seen the third-most screen passes of any team this season and allowed the third-most first downs of any team.
In a game where we see a lot of strength-on-strength matchups, such as the Broncos’ pass rush vs. the Bills’ offensive line, the Denver offense is strong in two areas that can definitively take advantage of the Buffalo defense – pass protection and the underneath passing game.
If the Broncos can force the Bills to consistently defend their weapons from sideline to sideline, they should be able to take advantage of a defense that has been quite porous down the stretch.
