The Denver Broncos and Bo Nix finally returned to the football field Sunday night, and, in turn, I’m excited to finally be returning to my Broncos Stock Report columns after a hiatus last year.
Here I’ve thoughts on Bo Nix, the Denver Broncos’ rookie class, the depth chart outlooks at quarterback, running back, and receiver, and MUCH MORE!
I hope you enjoy this article, and I’m sure we’ll enjoy this season together.
Without further adieu, here is your Denver Broncos Stock Report:
Stock Up
Bo Nix
It might not have been the best performance of any Broncos player, but we can’t afford to bury the lede here.
Bo Nix looked good in his rookie debut. Fresh out of the box, he looked more comfortable and mentally advanced than Paxton Lynch or Drew Lock ever looked.
On top of delivering on his pre-draft sales pitch — a mentally refined, quick-armed, experienced field general — Nix demonstrated flashes of upside that, if built upon, will help alleviate some of the pre-draft concerns that surrounded him.
His legs look like a legitimate weapon and pairing that with this thick frame, makes him scary for opposing defenses to defend in the redzone. You can bet that as teams adjust to defend his snappy release, which was showcased on the RPO touchdown to Marvin Mims, Sean Payton is going to build in a counterpunch that allows Nix to crash right into the soft belly of the opponent.
He also used his arm to create a few plays. The zip on the aforementioned touchdown, while a short pass, was still nice to see. It was also nice to see him deliver an accurate pass on an out route while fading away. He also threw some accurate passes off platform as well, showcasing a playmaking ability that was often downplayed in his scouting profile.
All that said, national analysts aren’t as high on Nix’s performance and have leveled some fair critiques. That shouldn’t be a surprise or a concern though. The Denver Broncos haven’t tasted competent quarterback play in a decade, and during that same decade, quarterback play around the league has greatly improved.
What is incredibly exciting to Broncos Country is certainly going to be more pedestrian to the people who spend most of their time covering the Lamar Jackson’s and Josh Allen’s of the world.
That said, they also point out some things that Broncos fans should hope to see improve over these next two preseason games and throughout Nix’s rookie campaign.
For starters, he was far too willing to throw off-platform. It’s great to know he has some of that ability in his game, but it’s also natural to see accuracy nosedive when a quarterback’s feet aren’t set. Nix was creating too many of those situations on his own, when the defense wasn’t demanding it, creating some unnecessary completions.
The less concerning critique has been about Nix checking the ball down too much. While there’s truth to this (just seven of Nix’s 21 attempts traveled further than 10 yards downfield) and it is something to continue monitoring, Nix’s performance doesn’t stand out as overly conservative on paper.
Nix’s average depth of target (ADOT) was 7.4 yards downfield, which is tied for 22nd among the 35 quarterbacks this week with at least 15 dropbacks, placing him in the 42nd percentile. So, yes, a little more conservative than average, but that doesn’t seem too concerning for a rookie in their first start.
Focusing on the ADOT of completions does drop that number, as Arif Hasan notes, and that’s a worthwhile thing to point out. So what if Bo Nix is throwing the ball downfield if he can’t complete them, right?
But, in such a small sample size, a drop like the one Josh Reynolds had downfield in the endzone is going to drop that number by a lot. If you account for that drop, the ADOT of his completions jumps to 6.8, which seems right in line with what you would expect based off his standard ADOT — lower, because we’re only focusing on completions and those are naturally going to likely be shorter concepts, but not by much.
Overall, Broncos Country should still be watching and monitoring Bo Nix. We are still far from determining what he truly is at the NFL level. Nonetheless, his rookie debut was remarkably promising, and Broncos fans should feel free to live in optimism.
Sean Payton
This will be a quick add-on to the point above, but Sean Payton must be waking up giddy this morning.
For starters, he bet his legacy on Bo Nix, and the early returns there are appearing promising.
Secondly, he will finally be able to actually construct and call the offense he wants, because the quarterback won’t completely handcuff him.
Last year Sean Payton was having existential crises over sushi, and one would think Russell Wilson, his propensity to create sacks, and his inability to attack large swaths of the field or operate on schedule were major contributing factors.
Payton won’t have to put up with that now.
Maybe the national critics of Nix are right, and he ends up being a game-manager level quarterback. That shouldn’t be a problem for Payton, the man who made the Saints the NFL’s third best offense in EPA/play with Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill playing quarterback for him.
(Most of) The Denver Broncos 2024 Draft Class
The Broncos are operating at a ridiculous competitive disadvantage this season.
Most every other team in the league has five more top-60 draft picks on rookie deals, and $55 million more in cap space, thanks to the Russell Wilson and Sean Payton trades.
The only way to dig out of that hole, is getting a lot of contribution from your other young players. Denver’s rookie class showed a healthy amount potential on that front in the preseason debut.
Even outside of the aforementioned performance from Bo Nix, the rookies shined.
Jonah Elliss created four pressures on just nine pass rushing snaps, which included a sack and a quarterback hit that led to an interception. The rookie still has to prove himself against the run, but he looked ready to contribute as a pass rusher right away.
Kris Abrams-Draine strengthened his case as the Broncos’ No. 4 CB by snagging an interception on a two-point conversion attempt and breaking up another pass in the second half. With the dime cornerback spot open, Abrams-Draine is starting to emerge as the favorite.
Audric Estimé didn’t have the most impressive debut, especially considering the ugly lowlight that was his fumble that Indianapolis returned for a touchdown, but he still managed to lead the team in rushing, score a rushing touchdown, and showed some of the power-rushing ability that made Denver want to target him.
Devaughn Vele didn’t light up the stat sheet, with just one reception for eight yards, but he did have a sizable impact on the game, as he also drew two big defensive pass interference penalties. Plus, he made an impact even when he wasn’t targeted.
Most notably though, Vele entered the game long before Troy Franklin did, suggesting that Vele is likely the team’s top receiver after the quartet of Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds, Troy Franklin, and Marvin Mims.
That demotion paired with the troubling reports out of camp makes Franklin the lone rookie in Denver’s class that is having a worrisome start to their career (Nick Gargiulo admittedly hasn’t made an impression either way at this time).
Riley Moss
Based on camp performances alone, the boundary cornerback spot opposite Patrick Surtain II was my biggest concern entering this game.
It has been an ugly camp for both Riley Moss and Damarri Mathis, and from this vantage point, Moss claiming the ‘CB2’ job has far more to do with a lack of competition, both due to Mathis coming up short and Levi Wallace being beat up. That’s not even mentioning the incentive Denver has to try and make Moss work after all they’ve invested in him.
That said, it sure didn’t look like a major problem Sunday night.
Over 12 coverage snaps, Moss was targeted just twice and allowed just one reception for 11 yards, and it came in man-to-man on a well-run comeback route. There’s not much Moss can do there.
Overall Moss was sticky in coverage and his instincts, ball skills and physicality, which were the highlights of his draft profile, were on full display. If this is truly the foundation Moss is working with, the Broncos may have found their long-term partner opposite PS2. One can only hope.
Stock Down
Samaje Perine
With the additions of Audric Estime and Blake Watson, Samaje Perine was already walking a tightrope to stay on the Denver Broncos’ roster.
He stumbled on that high-wire act in a major way on Sunday, as he comedically bobbled a ball up in the air four times before it was eventually intercepted by Kenny Moore II. That’s a rough look for a back whose sales pitch is all about pass-catching and pass-protecting.
To make matters worse, Javonte Williams looked plenty healthy in his small sample size, Audric Estime looked useful as a brute-force weapon, and both Jaleel McLaughlin and Blake Watson appear to be exciting receiving options.
It seems like Perine will be suiting up for the Dallas Cowboys or the Cincinnati Bengals in the near future.
Jarrett Stidham
On Friday, Stidham was named the starter for the first preseason game and it seemed like, at worst, he would be locked into a roster spot as the team’s backup.
That conversation has been re-opened after Sunday, as Stidham was pretty pedestrian while Zach Wilson had one of his best performances yet in orange and blue.
With more performances like that from Stidham and Wilson, it will be hard for the team to ignore the money they would save by cutting or trading Stidham. Plus, cutting Stidham would prevent the Wilson acquisition from looking like a sunk cost, and silly as it may be, NFL decision-makers care about those optics.
Marvin Mims Jr.
It’s not time to sound the alarm yet, but Marvin Mims’ usage on Sunday night was fairly concerning.
Mims was supposed to breakout as the team’s clear No. 2 option with Jerry Jeudy out the door, and after one preseason game, it looks like he’s the team’s No. 4 receiver.
If that trend holds throughout the preseason, it would suggest that Mims is likely to once again be relegated to a returner/gadget role, which would be disappointing considering Denver’s investment in him. It would also be a troubling omen in regard to Mims’ ability to further develop his route-running, and, therefore, his value to the offense.
