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Editor’s Note: Our apologies for the lack of photos from Broncos vs. Bengals. In a head-scratching decision, our photo client didn’t send a photographer to the Monday Night game this week.
Stock Up
The Denver Broncos Rushing Attack
The passing game lurching out of the gate got the lion’s share of Broncos Country’s attention during the team’s slow start, but the painfully ineffective and unreliable run game was arguably the bigger problem for the offensive attack.
Bo Nix is still an inexperienced NFL quarterback who’s still developing his game, and these early career ups and downs are the norm at the position. To buoy the offense through those lulls and those valleys, the Broncos need to be able to lean on the run, which is why they overhauled the backfield this offseason.
Sean Payton spent much of his offseason media tour gassing up Denver’s new-look rushing attack as the weaponry upgrade Broncos fans were openly pining for.
Through three weeks, that seemed to be nothing more than hype, but in Week 4, the run game finally broke through, as the Broncos’ running back tandem trampled the Bengals’ defense.
J.K. Dobbins and R.J. Harvey combined for 199 yards from scrimmage and the offense rushed for a total of 186 yards, as Denver’s backfield finally looked like the dynamic threat we had hoped for. The Broncos weren’t just compiling their production; they also averaged 0.106 EPA/carry (ranking 10th this week), 5.6 yards per carry on designed runs, and posted a rushing success rate of 52.9% (ranking fourth this week).
This showing was also so promising because it seems pretty replicable. Dobbins has consistently played at a high level for the Broncos, and is creating extra yardage with his remarkable contact balance and vision. Meanwhile, Harvey is beginning to blossom into the dynamic pass-catching threat out of the backfield we’ve seen thrive so many times in Sean Payton’s offenses.
Entering Week 5, the Broncos now rank fifth in rushing yards per game, fifth in yards per carry, second in rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per rush, ninth in yards before contact per attempt, and 10th in yards after contact per attempt.
The Denver Broncos Defense
The Denver Broncos’ defense ranking so high in the ‘Stock Up’ category isn’t the reflection of a poor Week 3 showing, as they wowed against a Chargers passing attack that had been unstoppable up until that point. Still, they deserve to land here after putting the Bengals’ offense in a chokehold for three consecutive hours on Monday night.
The Broncos allowed just three points, 159 yards of offense and six first-down conversions, which rank as the third-best, fourth-best and best defensive performances of the season, in their respective categories.
Denver’s demolition of Cincy’s offense is even more impressive when considering that the Bengals’ offensive numbers are carried by their first drive of the game. 35.8% of the Bengals’ yards and four of their six first downs came on that first drive. The Bengals’ final eight drives averaged a measly 3.2 yards per play and featured five three-and-outs. After the first quarter, the Bengals produced an EPA/play of -0.37 and a success rate of 27.6%. The worst single-game performances, so far this season, in those categories are
Now, let’s narrow our scope some, to focus on how both the pass rush and coverage players dominated their matchups.
Despite dropping back on just 29 snaps, Jake Browning was pressured 11 times, with Nik Bonitto contributing more than half of those. Bonitto created six pressures, including three ‘quick pressures’ (defined as a pressure that was registered less than 2.5 seconds after the snap) on just 19 total pass-rush opportunities.
He now leads the league in pressures (27), quick pressures (15), and pass-rush productivity score (15.7), while being tied for third in sacks (4.5) and ranking 10th in pass-rush win rate (24.4%).
When Browning did get the ball off, he didn’t have a whole lot of luck. On throws to Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, Browning was 8-for-13 for 55 yards (4.2 yards per attempt), and converted just one first down.
Riley Moss and Pat Surtain II led those efforts. Despite a rough first two drives, Moss allowed just two receptions for 25 yards on his seven targets. Meanwhile, Browning hardly looked Surtain’s way, completing one of his two targets for just eight yards.
Now, over three matchups and 54 coverage snaps against Chase, Surtain has allowed just four catches for 35 yards. Using PPR fantasy points as a simple, catch-all production stat, that’s 2.5 points per game. For comparison’s sake, Cowboys bench WR Ryan Flournoy is averaging 2.7 points per game in PPR leagues.
Bo Nix
In a tale as old as time, with the Denver Broncos failing to live up to expectations through three weeks, a schism formed in the fanbase regarding who was most at fault for the early struggles, with one contingent blaming the quarterback and the other blaming the head coach.
On Monday Night Football, both figures bounced back, with Bo Nix’s resurgence being most apparent.
Nix put together his best quarterbacking performance of the year and sliced through the Cincinnati Bengals’ defense, going 29-for-42 for 326 yards, two passing touchdowns, and one pretty ugly interception through the air, while adding seven yards and another touchdown on the ground.
Beyond that delightful spike in production, Nix demonstrated meaningful growth in the areas of his game that most needed it.
After early-season struggles with his mechanics, Nix’s footwork was much better. He also took major strides regarding what we’ve been asking to see all offseason, like improving when playing under pressure and not having to rely on so many offensive ‘training wheels’ — like RPOs, screens, and play action. Through three weeks, it seemed like he had regressed in those facets, but against the Bengals, he made some strides in the right direction.
In Week 4, when under pressure, Nix was 7-for-10 for 99 yards, a touchdown, and a passer rating of 135.0. On dropbacks without screens or play action to help him, the Oregon product was 15-for-24 for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 114.6. When throwing between the hashes, another area where Nix has needed to improve, Denver’s quarterback was 8-for-11 for 113 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 135.8 (not including throws behind the line of scrimmage that remained between the hashes).
The Denver Broncos’ Playoff Odds
When the Denver Broncos started the season 1-2, doom and gloom began to suffocate Broncos Country.
Now, just one week later, the Broncos have a pretty clear path to the playoffs — FTN’s DVOA model gives the Broncos a 57.6% chance of playing postseason football and a 21.3% chance of winning the division, and the rest of the AFC seems to be self-destructing.
The Las Vegas Raiders, New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, and Cincinnati Bengals are all trending towards high draft picks, and it’s hard to imagine any of them pulling out of their tailspin. Plus, barring another tie, either the Baltimore Ravens or Houston Texans will drop to 1-4 this weekend, and only six teams in NFL history have reached the playoffs after such a start. Plus, the Ravens are dealing with injuries to several stars, including Lamar Jackson.
That leaves nine teams fighting for seven spots.
To simplify things, let’s narrow our scope to the wild-card race. Yes, the Broncos could certainly win the division right now, but that’s easy to track and something Broncos Country has already been monitoring closely.
Assuming the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills remain unchallenged for their respective divisional crowns, the three AFC wild-card teams should come down to a race between the New England Patriots, the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Denver Broncos, and either the Baltimore Ravens or the Houston Texans. Two of those teams (likely the Colts and Chargers, at this point) will win their divisions, leaving the rest to battle it out.
If all that comes to fruition, the Broncos would have to be better than just two of those remaining teams to punch their ticket.
Stock Down
Luke Wattenberg
Sloppy is the best word to describe Luke Wattenberg’s performance from Monday night.
In just 60 minutes of football, Wattenberg was penalized five different times, with two being declined. No offensive lineman in the league this season has been penalized more than a total of seven times combined.
Five in a single game is beyond inexcusable, and had Joe Burrow been playing instead of Jake Browning, those penalties could have been the difference between the Broncos winning a shootout or coming up just short, like they did last year.
Troy Franklin
Troy Franklin has generally been a positive story in the Denver Broncos’ 2025 campaign, but there’s a troubling trend beginning to bubble up for Bo Nix’s former college teammate.
After showing so much growth over the past several months towards correcting his problem with drops, Franklin’s butterfingers have started to reappear.
Against the Los Angeles Chargers, he dropped a wide-open endzone target, though it wouldn’t have mattered if he caught it, because the play was negated by an offensive penalty. At the moment, it wasn’t a big deal, but then Franklin followed up that Week 3 blooper with two more critical drops against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s not time to sound the alarms yet, but Franklin needs to correct this trend quickly before his confidence begins to spiral.
