It’s been a full year since the Denver Broncos, willed to the postseason by Bo Nix and Sean Payton, faced the Buffalo Bills in the Wild Card Round.
In hindsight, that 10-7 season feels slightly miraculous considering Denver’s choice to take on the brunt of dead cap from the Russell Wilson contract and that the team was helmed by a rookie quarterback.
Sadly, the miracle run had to end somewhere, and it came at the hands of Josh Allen, Sean McDermott, and the entirety of the Buffalo roster. A 31-7 thumping which included Allen trampling the Denver defense, a crippling difference in time of possession (the Broncos’ offense only ran 43 plays, the Bills ran 74), and a lack of execution from Payton’s offense as a whole.
Now, a year later, Sean Payton’s squad has an opportunity at redemption against the same foe, but the circumstances have changed.
The Broncos are now the superior seed, going 14-3 in the regular season and capturing the AFC’s No. 1 seed and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Bills went 12-5 and managed the No. 6 seed, but failed to live up to their lofty standards. Despite this, the Bills are still arguably the most dangerous team in the AFC field, as demonstrated by their come-from-behind victory on the road against the red-hot Jacksonville Jaguars, thanks to three Allen touchdowns and some excellent defensive scheming from McDermott.
This year, the next generation of QBs is announcing their arrival, and Josh Allen remains the last unconquered demigod among the AFC quarterbacks.
Can Denver manage to conquer the titan who stands before them and take their place among the true AFC contenders? Or will they shrink before the challenge and prove the doubters who consider them a “pretender” correct?
By the Numbers: Broncos Defense vs. Bills Offense
On paper, the most exciting side of the ball to watch should be the Bills juggernaut offense facing off against the Broncos’ vaunted defense.
Buffalo is exceptional on the offensive side of the ball, no matter how you slice it. They rank inside the top-five in yards per game, yards per play, touchdowns scored, EPA per play, pressure-rate allowed, EPA per dropback and rushing yards per game, and they totaled 30 rushing scores.
In other words, by the numbers, there isn’t much of a weakness here. They are arguably the best rushing team in the NFL, they have one of the league’s best offensive lines, and, despite lacking true elite talent at pass catcher, possess one of the NFL’s most efficient and explosive passing games. Oh, yeah, and they have arguably the scariest QB left in the playoffs with Josh Allen, who can generate explosives seemingly on a whim with his ability to easily create explosive plays both on the ground and through the air.
Now, while the Bills’ offense is terrifying, the Broncos’ defense is equally as scary for opposing offenses and is loaded to the brim with stout run defenders, lockdown DBs, and the NFL’s best pass rush, all orchestrated by one of the league’s best defensive schemers – Vance Joseph.
Denver’s defense ranks among the seven best defenses in yards allowed per game, yards per play, EPA per play, EPA per dropback, and EPA per rush, while also owning the second-highest pressure rate, the most sacks in the league, and the sixth-best run-stuff rate in the league per NGS.
Much like the Bills’ offense, there aren’t a lot of glaring weaknesses to pick on. They are stout against the run with elite tacklers at all three levels, they pressure and sack quarterbacks at an obscene rate, and the secondary features a Defensive Player of the Year at corner with playmakers all around him. This matchup should have eyes all across the nation glued to their screens as Josh Allen is forced to hit a new level of Super Saiyan to keep this Broncos defense at bay.
By the Numbers: Broncos Offense vs. Bills Defense
This side of the matchup might not have the intrigue that the first does, but there are still a lot of interesting points to pick at.
The Broncos’ offense under Sean Payton and second-year QB Bo Nix is a slightly above-average unit in most categories. They rank 10th in yards per game, 15th in yards per play, 14th in TDs scored, and 10th in EPA per play. Nix’s development allowed the passing attack to lead the way, ranking ninth in EPA per dropback and enjoying the third-lowest pressure rate in football. On the ground, they ranked 18th in EPA per rush, seventh in rushing success rate and had the 12th-lowest rate of stuffed runs per NGS.
As is often the case for Payton’s attacks, this offense is headlined by an elite offensive line, a lack of negative plays, and constant prodding of defenses’ weak links with underneath throws in hopes of creating big plays late behind the coverage. Nix still has some flaws once the ball is snapped, but improvements in his presnap understanding and control of the Broncos’ offense have kept them out of many negative situations.
A big issue for Denver this week is they’d like to be able to take advantage of the Bills’ lackluster run defense, but sadly, their most productive back of the season, J.K. Dobbins, is still recovering from an injury he sustained in week 10. This leaves rookie RB R.J. Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin to handle the workload in a hostile Buffalo environment.
The Bills’ defense under Sean McDermott this season will be an interesting opponent for the Broncos, because, although they have their flaws, they do some things that could give Nix and the Broncos’ offense fits exceptionally well.
Buffalo ranks 12th in EPA allowed per play, with a significant discrepancy between their run and pass defenses. The Bills rank sixth in EPA allowed per dropback – notably, one spot higher than the Broncos defense ranks – and are producing the 12th-best pressure rate in the NFL. Against the run though, they rank 30th in EPA allowed per rush, have allowed more rushing TDs than any other team, and the second-most runs of 10+ yards, despite ranking ninth in run-stuff rate.
Now you might be asking yourself, “How does a team that is top-10 getting run stuffs also giving up the second most explosive runs in the league?” It’s simple – the spine of their defense struggles mightily to tackle opposing ball carriers. They rank 14th in yards before contact allowed per rush attempt at 1.23 yards, but they rank 1st in yards after contact allowed per carry at a jaw-dropping 3.93 yards per NGS.
No doubt that the Broncos will be longing for JK Dobbins in this game.
Oddly enough, these issues don’t seem to extend to the passing game, as the Bills’ defense actually allowed the fewest yards after the catch of any team in the NFL this season. Sadly, that’s another stat that favors the Bills, considering the Broncos’ offense is predicated on a lot of screens, underneath throws, and passes to the flats.
Bo Nix will certainly have his work cut out for him as the second-year signal caller has struggled throughout his career against disguised zone coverage, and Sean McDermott has been putting on a master class in confusing quarterbacks this season, especially last week against Trevor Lawrence.
Broncos X-Factors
Stopping James Cook and Co.: In last year’s playoff battle, the Broncos were annihilated by the Bills’ rushing attack. Denver brought in some reinforcements in Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, which, paired with the emergence of Eyioma Uwazurike and Malcolm Roach as rotational run stuffers, should help turn the tide. If Denver wants to stand a chance in this one, they need to slow down James Cook, Josh Allen, and Buffalo’s mammoth offensive line.
Establishing their own run game: Jaleel McLaughlin has provided a decent spark for the Broncos’ running game in recent weeks, thanks to his consistent vision between the tackles and his ability to execute zone runs. He currently sports the best success rate of all Broncos running backs at 48.6% and has the juice to break off an explosive run if he can find open space. Of course, R.J. Harvey will be the primary back getting touches and also play a pivotal role, but McLaughlin has been the better ball-carrier recently. Denver has to keep its offense on the field for extended drives, and McLaughlin should be a large part of that effort.
Will P.J. Locke step up?: Sadly, one of the core members of Denver’s secondary, Brandon Jones, won’t be able to play on Saturday, which leaves the job of deep safety to veteran P.J. Locke. So far, Locke has performed admirably in place of Jones, and his experience playing in the defense shouldn’t leave too much to be desired in the communication department, but last year, when Locke was forced to play major snaps, Josh Allen created multiple massive plays targeting him in coverage. For the Broncos, the theme of this game is redemption, and no one needs a redemptive playoff game more than Locke.
To blitz or not to blitz Josh Allen: This is one of the toughest decisions the Broncos’ coaching staff will have to ponder this week. On one hand, this season, pressure has had a larger effect on Allen than it usually does. Against the blitz, he ranked 15th in EPA/dropback (+0.07), and scored just seven touchdowns while throwing 5 interceptions.
On the other hand, Allen has typically shredded the blitz ever since his 2020 breakout campaign. Just last season, against the blitz, he ranked 2nd in EPA/dropback (+0.30) and scored 15 touchdowns to just 1 interception. Last year, against Vance Joseph’s arsenal of blitzes, Allen went 10-for-12 for 140 yards and 1 touchdown, and wasn’t sacked a single time.
Now, one could dismiss that because that was then and this is now, until last week. In the wild-card round, when Jacksonville tried its best to pressure him with blitzes, Allen was 11-for-13 for 85 yards and five first downs while taking no sacks.
That said, against the Jaguars, Buffalo also suffered season-ending injuries to boundary weapons Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis, leaving them with Keon Coleman, Khalil Shakir, and Brandin Cooks as their healthy options at wideout, likely along with some sort of practice-squad promotion. Despite their deep tight end room, that’s not a threatening group of separators. In theory, Denver should be able to limit their production without putting too many extra defenders in coverage, making blitzing an optimal strategy, but are they willing to try touching that stove again to discover whether or not it’s hot?
Final Thoughts
This game won’t be a walk in the park for Broncos Country.
This Bills team is talented, well-coached, and has a lot of experience in games like this. Allen is one of the best playoff QBs ever, and has so far played well against the Broncos every time he’s seen them. Sean McDermott has made a career out of confusing inexperienced NFL QBs like Nix.
But, this is a new era of Broncos football – one where the team is up to conquering such a task. This isn’t like the Broncos teams of the post-Manning, pre-Payton years. Sean Payton is one of the best coaches of all time with extra rest and is also one of the best offensive schemers in the league. Nix has taken the step from starter to bona fide franchise QB, who manages his offense at the line as well as anyone and has the talent and clutch gene to go head-to-head with any QB in the NFL. This defense is among the best in franchise history and has consistently made plays this season when called upon.
Several times over the last few years, the Broncos have played their ‘biggest game since Super Bowl 50,’ with every new high-water mark replacing the previous one, but this contest truly deserves that superlative.
With a win, the Broncos will firmly plant themselves in the AFC contender conversation for the foreseeable future.
A decade of mediocrity, embarrassment, failed coaches, and failed QBs can feel like a distant memory by the end of the weekend. All Denver has to do is vanquish one of the league’s sacred cows.
