The Denver Broncos are undergoing a massive overhaul of their quarterback position.
Russell Wilson was let go in arguably the most extreme removal of a player we’ve ever seen in NFL history, Ben DiNucci was swapped out for the infamous Zach Wilson, and Sean Payton targeted Bo Nix with the team’s first-round pick.
Where does the room stand now as we enter training camp? Let’s take a look in this preview.
Starter: Bo Nix
Will He Make The Roster? 1000% yes. This is one of the most surefire locks on the roster. You don’t draft a quarterback in the first 12 picks, only to cut him before his first regular season game.
Unless Bo Nix engages in an act of domestic terrorism between now and the final preseason game, he’s making the Broncos’ final 53.
What Will Be His Projected Role? Bo Nix will be the Denver Broncos starting quarterback before the start of October, and likely by Week 1. Although Broncos Country doesn’t seem to see it, Stidham is one of the league’s better backup quarterbacks, and so it would be totally understandable if the vet starts the first handful of games. Nonetheless, Stidham is undeniably not part of Denver’s long-term future, so Nix should takeover sooner rather than later.
What Will Define Success? IF Broncos Country feels good about the Bo Nix and Sean Payton marriage at season’s end, without having to drink any Kool-Aid (see Drew Lock, Russell Wilson optimism), the season was a success.
What Question Does He Have To Answer? Can he be a playmaker who elevates the scheme and the talent around him, or will he be a game manager that is a reflection of his scheme and surrounding talent?
The big questions with Bo Nix come down to his ceiling and his ability to create plays out of structure.
Some of that is a product of Nix’s athleticism, which is good but isn’t elite in any particular category. How much of a rushing threat can he be at the next level? And, does he have enough arm strength to fit passes into tight windows or to afford himself margin-for-error when it comes to his timing?
Some of it is also a product of his mental processing though and the funky offense he ran at the University of Oregon. Is he able to stay poised and create magic when the play breaks down, or does he short-circuit and become too chaotic? Is he willing to take some aggressive shots downfield? Will he still be so accurate and mentally precise in an NFL offense that doesn’t give him such a high volume of layups?
The more positive answers the Denver Broncos get there, the more likely it is that Bo Nix can go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert for the foreseeable future.
That will be critical, not only because of the current divisional landscape, but the impending financial landscape as well. With the way things are trending, having a superstar quarterback you feel confident committing guaranteed money far into the future with will be nearly as valuable as having a quarterback on a rookie deal.
You will not be able to afford to live in the middle ground, especially with two world-destroyers already in division.
Backup: Jarrett Stidham
Will He Make The Roster?
Almost certainly. There’s a chance Zach Wilson undergoes a transformation more dramatic than that of Bruce Banner or the Wolf Man, and suddenly learn how to play competent NFL football at sports’ most difficult position, but that seems pretty far-fetched.
Without that miracle, Stidham will make the roster as the backup to Bo Nix, or a potential placeholder for the first few weeks of the season.
What Will Be His Projected Role?
Backup quarterback who potentially starts a small handful of games.
The gap between him and Bo Nix in the competition for the starting job seems to be comfortably in Nix’s favor, and the gap between Stidham and Wilson appears even wider from the early camp reports we’ve seen. There won’t be any drama here.
What Will Define Success?
Not shitting the bed when given playing time. The reality of the situation is that Stidham is likely to start a handful of games, either as a placeholder for Nix, or (more likely) as his backup following injury.
Last year saw 50 percent of the league play their backup quarterback, so there’s a great chance we’ll see Stidham at some point this season. For his season to be a success, he has to look the part of a competent backup when the Denver Broncos turn to him.
The Broncos aren’t paying Stidham like a starting quarterback, but they are paying him like one of the league’s five or 10 best backup plans. He needs to perform as such.
What Question Does He Have To Answer?
Can he mentor Bo Nix any?
Stidham does appear to be a fine backup quarterback, but winning isn’t the top priority for the Denver Broncos in 2024. Developing Bo Nix is what this season is all about.
With that in mind, is a 27-year-old with just four career starts going to be a valuable mentor to the Broncos hopeful franchise quarterback?
On paper, the answer would seem to be a no, but there’s also no way for us to know from outside the Denver Broncos’ facility.
Let’s hope Stidham makes us look foolish for judging a book by its cover.
Cut/Practice Squad: Zach Wilson
Will He Make The Roster?
No, and the only reason this idea has been even somewhat entertained is because of Zach Wilson’s draft status.
Nothing else suggests he’s even worthy of a roster spot on a team’s final 53-man roster. Since 2021, he ranks 70th out of the 77 quarterbacks with at least 150 snaps in EPA per dropback and success rate. With 32 starters and 32 backups, that means there are approximately six non-roster-worthy quarterbacks who are better than Zach Wilson.
Plus, even the style is a poor fit. Stylistically, Zach Wilson is similar to Russell Wilson and shares many of the same faults in terms of operating quick game, reading the field, and holding onto the ball. However, he doesn’t share any of Russell Wilson’s strengths, and it’s hard to imagine Sean Payton throwing his arms around a dramatically worse version of the field general he just exiled.
What Will Be His Projected Role?
Practice squad quarterback or out of the league entirely.
What Will Define Success?
If Zach Wilson were to make the final 53-man roster, it would be the most successful and impressive moment of his NFL career.
What Question Does He Have To Answer?
Is he a CFL backup quarterback or a UFL backup quarterback?
On one hand, Canada’s ‘Grey Cup’ is professional football’s second-most coveted trophy, plenty of NFL legends, like Warren Moon and Cameron Wake, made a name for themselves in the CFL, and the league is much more financially stable and has a much richer history.
On the other, Canadian football is a different sport with different rules from American football, although slightly. As a result, it seems like the XFL/USFL/AAF/UFL has become the better developmental league path for players hoping to break into the NFL. Plus, one has to consider that Canada’s tax rates for athletes are tougher and that their weather is much harsher, although both leagues play in the spring/summer, which limits the impact of the weather concern.
So, will he be backing up Memphis Showboats legend Cole Kelley, or will he be studying under Montreal Alouettes signal-caller Cody Fajardo? Only time will tell.
