The Denver Broncos safety room is arguably undergoing a more dramatic change than any other position group on the roster.
Franchise legend Justin Simmons and fan favorite Kareem Jackson are out the door, and the Broncos are tabbing some combination of Brandon Jones, P.J. Locke and Caden Sterns to replace them.
What can we expect from that trio and the rest of the room? Let’s look!
Position Preview article series so far:
Grading The Safeties Podcast Episode:
Starter: Brandon Jones
Will He Make The Roster? Yes, of course.
He was one of the Denver Broncos’ top priorities during an offseason where they made very few acquisitions, is a great fit for Vance Joseph’s defense, and it would cost the Broncos an additional $7.7 million dollars against the cap to move on at this point.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Starting safety who spends much of his time around the line of scrimmage or attacking downhill.
Jones is one of the best blitzing safeties in the league, as was highlighted during the 2021 season — his final healthy season under the notoriously aggressive Brian Flores.
During that year, Jones rushed the passer on 22.8% of dropbacks, which was the highest rate in the league by a margin, as second place (Jabrill Peppers) rushed the passer 14.8% of the time. Plus, he thrived in that role, tallying five sacks (two more than any other defensive back), and generating the most pressures of any defensive back.
Last year, in Vic Fangio’s more conservative, shell-coverage-based defense, Jones was defanged and asked to play a style of defense that didn’t maximize his strengths. Under Joseph, his usage should be much closer to what we saw during his time with Brian Flores.
What Would Define A Successful Season? A return to 2021 form.
After the 2021 season, just his second year in the league, Jones looked like one of the sport’s most promising young defensive backs. Then he missed half of the 2022 season and found himself as an awkward fit in Miami’s 2023 new-look defense.
If he can get back on track, which seems feasible given the valid excuses for his disappointing campaigns of the past, Jones should be one of the league’s best financial bargains.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Can he become more reliable down to down?
Even when Jones was playing at his best, he was a boom-or-bust player.
He would explode into the backfield to pulverize a running back one play, only to egregiously miss a tackle on the next carry that opened up a 20-yard gain. He would come away with a remarkable pass breakup, and then get torched downfield for a big play.
With Justin Simmons gone, the Denver Broncos no longer have the safety net they’ve become so accustomed to on defense, and it’s on Jones to try and replace that presence.
Starter: P.J. Locke
Will He Make The Roster? Yes, for the same reasons listed for Brandon Jones.
P.J. Locke is a strong scheme fit and was one of the very few players Denver actively and directly invested in this offseason. Plus, it would be more expensive to cut him than to keep him.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Primary starting safety opposite Brandon Jones.
One interesting aspect to that though is that one could easily argue that both of these safeties are at their best when playing around the line of scrimmage, and neither is a true ‘center-fielder’.
There will be negatives and limitations to this, but expect Joseph to lean on this symmetry to aid the defense by adding layers of disguise to the picture.
Post-snap, Joseph plays single-high looks, like Cover 1 and Cover 3, at one of the highest rates in the league. On any given play, it should be fairly difficult for the offense to decipher which safety is rotating back to be the single-high player, and which could be screaming off the edge to light up the quarterback.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Maintaining his current trajectory.
It is not easy to forge a successful NFL career as an undrafted free agent. P.J. Locke accomplished that feat by consistently thriving in whatever role the Denver Broncos asked him to fill.
The first two seasons of his career, he solidified a roster spot as a special teams ace. Then, in 2022, when injuries pulled him into the starting lineup, he showed he could be much more than a pure special-teamer. Finally, last season, he got his moment to shine and was one of the major catalysts in Denver’s defensive turnaround.
If that trend continues to ring true for Locke, he’ll be a solid starter in 2024, which would be denote a successful season.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Is he ready for all this?
Again, P.J. Locke has thrived every single time the Denver Broncos have asked him to take on an expanded role. That said, this is by far the biggest jump he’s ever taken.
With Jones being a player that should be in the box as much as possible, Locke will frequently find himself as the last line of defense in coverage, effectively making him the Justin Simmons replacement.
Will he be ready to handle an admittedly unfair ask? We’ll find out soon.
Third Safety: Caden Sterns
Will He Make The Roster? Probably.
No other player in the Denver Broncos’ safety room, and potentially across the entire roster, has as wide a range of outcomes for the 2024 season as Caden Sterns.
When healthy, Sterns is and has been a better safety than both Brandon Jones and P.J. Locke. From a skillset standpoint, he would also be the best Justin Simmons replacement of the bench, considering that Jones and Locke are better closer to the line of scrimmage.
However, the injury Jones is returning from — a torn patellar tendon — is often a career-ender and dramatically more concerning than an ACL tear even, considering the recent medical advancements we’ve seen with ACL recovery. We do not have examples of non-linemen enjoying those same medical advancements when it comes to the patellar tendon.
There’s a worst-case scenario where Sterns is hampered so much by the injury that he’s unable to make the final roster. There’s also a best-case scenario where he’s a starting safety and the second-best member of Denver’s secondary from Day 1. Odds are the reality will fall somewhere in between those extremes.
What Will His Projected Role Be? As discussed in the last section, if healthy, Caden Sterns should be the team’s starting safety alongside Brandon Jones, and that says much more about Sterns than it does Locke.
That said, a more realistic projection is that he’ll still be a regular contributor to the defense, but that the injury will limit him enough that he can’t capture a starting job. Nonetheless, as three-safety looks become more common by the year, there is still plenty of room for Sterns to have a sizable role without starting.
What Would Define A Successful Season? If he can be a solid No. 3 safety for the Denver Broncos this season, that would be a nice win considering the injury he suffered.
Nonetheless, this season likely won’t feel like a success to Sterns unless he wins the starting job he would have been set to claim pre-injury.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Not to beat a dead horse, but the biggest question surrounding Caden Sterns, by a country mile, is the question of, ‘how will his patellar tendon injury affect him?’ Unfortunately, we likely won’t have a good read on the state of that injury until at least September.
Beyond that, Sterns needs to prove he can stay healthy for an extended stretch, so that this doesn’t become an annual offseason conversation with him.
Reserve: Delarrin Turner-Yell
Will He Make The Roster? Delarrin Turner-Yell will most likely be on the 2024 final roster.
With P.J. Locke slotting into the starting lineup, someone will have to take the responsibility of ‘special teams ace’ and Turner-Yell has been ready for that title for a hot minute now.
Turner-Yell was drafted with the hopes of improving the special teams, and although his defensive showings have left Broncos Country wanting, his special teams impact has made him a plus overall.
With the new kickoff rule inflating the emphasis on special teams, Turner-Yell’s roster spot should be even more secure than the ‘special teams aces’ of the past.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Special teams enforcer.
What Would Define A Successful Season? The Broncos are in a pretty privileged position here, as all they need from Turner-Yell is what he’s already been providing — high-end special teams play.
Now, there is a chance that Sterns isn’t the same at all post-injury, and so they’re forced to lean on Turner-Yell more as the team’s third safety. In that reality, Turner-Yell has to be a competent defensive player for the season to be a success.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? Can he be more than just a special teams player? Last year he got his first real dose of work on defense and wound up being a starring character in Miami’s 70-point demolition of the Denver Broncos last season. One would hope at some point that he can be trusted to do more than simply cover kicks and punts.
Reserve: J.L. Skinner
Will He Make The Roster? J.L. Skinner has a solid chance to make the roster, but that is far from a guarantee.
We have hardly seen Skinner practice, let alone play in an NFL game, but he was one of the more highly touted safeties in his draft class.
Outside of Sterns, Skinner has the widest range of outcomes in this room. He could be just another sixth-round washout, or he could wind up being the Denver Broncos’ go-to No. 3 safety.
What Will His Projected Role Be? Reserve piece who plays special teams alongside Turner-Yell, but sees more work on defense than Turner-Yell.
After last year, the Broncos could be content with leaving Turner-Yell as a knockout special teams player, just because of how rough his defensive snaps were a season ago. With Skinner being a more unknown commodity they might be willing to experiment more.
What Would Define A Successful Season? Making the final roster and securing a healthy dose of weekly playing time, even if he’s just a special teams exclusive.
Making the roster is a requisite for a successful season, but beyond that, Skinner has to get on the field. It’s hard to think of many sixth-round picks who failed to get on the field for their teams yet also hung around for three seasons.
Time for Skinner to make the most of Year 2.
What Questions Does He Still Have To Answer? What will he be as an NFL player?
We know so little about Skinner that it’s hard to confidently project how he’ll fit in Vance Joseph’s defense, what his strengths are, and what his weaknesses will be. These are the biggest questions for Skinner to answer.
Practice Squad Potential: Omar Brown, Devon Key, Tanner McAllister and Keidron Smith
Will They Make The Roster? No. The safety room is just too deep for these players to crack the rotation.
Rookie UDFA Omar Brown easily has the best chance, and his odds are still probably worse than 10%.
That said, we haven’t seen JL Skinner yet, so if he crashes and burns, it’s possible Brown could make the roster.
What Will Their Projected Roles Be? Practice squad depth and potential UFL players.
What Would Define A Successful Season? If any of these players manage to make the final roster, appear on the active roster at any point during the season, or stick around on the practice squad for the entirety of the season and have Denver pick them up on a futures deal in 2025, their season would be a tremendous success.
What Questions Do They Still Have To Answer? Are any of these players worthy of an NFL roster? Last year, the answer for three of them was ‘no’ and we haven’t seen anything from the outside that would suggest that might change.
Omar Brown is the more unknown commodity, but again, we’re talking about a UDFA competing for a roster spot in one of Denver’s deepest rooms.
