It’s 2024 and the Denver Broncos are still wandering the quarterback desert.
Will this finally be the year they find salvation? It seems possible.
But before crossing that bridge, let’s look at how the position group currently stands.
Jarrett Stidham, 27 years old
Remaining contract: One year, $7 million with $2 million guaranteed ($5 million in savings if cut)
As is always the case with the quarterback position, it’s tempting to launch hot takes one way or the other.
The discourse right now is heavily steeped in either Jarrett-Stidham-doom-casting or the idea that Stidham could shock people in Payton’s offense and lead the Denver Broncos on a surprise run.
But neither of those outcomes seem like the most likely option on the table.
In reality, Stidham probably won’t be that different from what Russell Wilson was a season ago — a below-average quarterback that ultimately caps the team ceiling while providing a functional floor.
The metrics even seem to paint Stidham’s play last year as eerily similar to Wilson’s.
Among 52 quarterbacks with at least 70 non-garbage-time dropbacks last season, Wilson ranked 31st in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, while Stidham ranked 32nd. Wilson’s attack had a success rate of 43.9%, while Stidham’s was a little worse, at 41.7%. Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) views Stidham as the slightly better quarterback though, ranking him 27th and Russell Wilson 29th out of 53 qualifying quarterbacks.
This shouldn’t be a surprise either.
Russell Wilson’s name and brand recognition is doing a lot of heavy lifting in terms of how his play is perceived. He was, at best, a replacement-level quarterback last year. The idea the Denver Broncos’ replacement is as good as the replacement-level player should not be a curveball.
Plus, Stidham is just two starts removed from looking legitimately terrific against the last iteration of DeMeco Ryans’ 49ers defense.
The more surprising element is the mitigation of pressure, or lack thereof.
Recently, when asked how the offense can improve in 2024, Sean Payton remarked they needed to stop taking so many sacks, a thinly veiled shot at the magnetic pole of sacks — Wilson.
Payton might be in for a rude awakening though, as Stidham took sacks at a very similar rate.
Among the 64 quarterbacks pressured at least 10 times last season, Wilson created his pressures (meaning they weren’t the result of the line play in front of him) at the second-highest rate. Jarrett Stidham created his pressures at the 10th-highest rate.
The one real source of optimism for Broncos fans with Stidham might be him operating as a game manager, considering he had the lowest turnover-worthy-play rate of any quarterback with at least 70 snaps last season.
Ben DiNucci, 27 years old
Remaining contract: One year, $985K with $0 guaranteed ($985K in savings if cut)
One could easily argue that, even more painful than seeing Jarrett Stidham as the starter in your quarterback room is seeing Ben DiNucci as the only other option.
DiNucci has attempted passes in two games during his NFL career — all for the 2020 Dallas Cowboys — completing 23 of 43 attempts for 219 yards, zero touchdowns and zero interceptions, and PFF credited him with one big-time-throw to six turnover-worthy-plays.
After quickly bouncing out of the NFL, he joined the XFL’s Seattle Dragons, started 10 games for them, and emerged as arguably the XFL’s best quarterback. He led the league in passing yards (2,671) and was second in passing touchdowns (20), though he also threw the most interceptions (13).
Also, that was the XFL.
Being a good XFL quarterback doesn’t translate to even being a solid NFL backup, which is why he spent so much of last year on the practice squad.
It’s likely the Denver Broncos sign or draft someone else to relegate DiNucci back to the practice squad, but until then, the backup quarterback situation looks grim.
Overall
It’s no secret that the Denver Broncos absolutely have to add more to this room.
Contrary to the popularly impatient belief, Jarrett Stidham can be a fine single-season placeholder to get the Broncos to the 2025 NFL Draft, when the team will be better positioned to land its long-term quarterback of the future.
But even then, the Denver Broncos should add another body to the room that can serve as Stidham’s backup instead of DiNucci.
Plus, ideally, both would be supplanted by a highly drafted rookie which is, of course, the best possible outcome for the room at this point. The need is so great that there is a very real chance Denver mortgages their future — while still paying off their last busted mortgage gamble — to move up and select one of this year’s top quarterbacks like Drake Maye or J.J. McCarthy, or even stay put to overdraft a Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix caliber prospect.
Even if it’s not to take over the 2024 starting job, a mid-round option like Michael Pratt or Spencer Rattler, to help fill out the room, would be welcome.
