The Denver Broncos sit at 5-3 through eight weeks for the first time since 2016, their last losing season.
Before this long stretch of misery, the Broncos had gone longer without consecutive losing seasons than any other team in the league. Now, they’ve been bottom-feeding for longer than just about any other team in the league.
That dark chapter in this franchise’s storied history might finally be ending.
Per FTN’s DVOA metric, the Broncos currently have a 62.5% chance of making the postseason, in a year they were supposed to be contending for the No. 1 overall pick. The team also finds itself on a 5-1 run after stumbling out of the gate with their rookie signal-caller, who now seems to be gaining comfort and confidence by the week.
Which Denver Broncos are leading the franchise out of the putrid muck that has engulfed it for nearly a decade, and which Broncos find their galoshes cemented in a vacuum seal of swamp filth as the rest of the franchise attempts to escape? Let’s look.
Editor’s Note: One of my favorite elements of doing these is including tweets and clips from around Broncos Country and our amazing Let’s Talk Broncos staff. Unfortunately, WordPress is having trouble embedding tweets for some reason. Hopefully this problem will be fixed before next edition.
Previous Stock Reports
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP
Bo Nix
Members of Broncos Country have been left wandering the quarterback wasteland for nine years, and it’s been a decade since the team offered quality play at the game’s most important position. While most other fanbases enjoyed the offensive boom of the late 2010s brought on by the Shannahanification of the league, the Broncos were stuck investing in the also-rans of the quarterback landscape and wallowing in a constant offensive famine.
Even past glimpses of long-term salvation quickly proved to be mirages. Paxton Lynch and Drew Lock never showed any real ability to develop. Russell Wilson offered the promise of a sure thing, failed to deliver, and then was quickly chased from town, loot-filled burlap sack in tow, like a snake oil salesman from the western frontier.
This time though, Bo Nix might finally offer the oasis Broncos Country has long awaited.
Past strong showings required qualifiers. You had to either look past some early failings or overlook some nauseating missed reads and scattershot throws to enjoy the flashes of luster.
Nix’s performance against the Carolina Panthers doesn’t require any cope.
Some will highlight Carolina’s laughable defense, but, although it’s fair to note the defensive shortcomings, they don’t seem tied to the areas where Nix’s improvement was most apparent.
Nix was operating within the rhythm of the offense better than he had in any of his past showings, smoothly and calmly progressing through his reads.
Most notably though, his feet were also much calmer, which led to Nix throwing with more precision than he has in any of his other contests so far. Through the first seven weeks of the season, only the infamously inaccurate Anthony Richardson trailed Nix in the accuracy metric ‘Completion Percentage Over Expectation.’ In Week 8, Nix ranked third, making him easily one of the week’s most accurate quarterbacks.
That accuracy boost also allowed Nix to throw the ball downfield more comfortably and much more proficiently.
The improved footwork also mitigated Nix’s pressure-creation tendencies. Through the season’s first six weeks, Nix created 14 pressures, the second-most in the league (Brock Purdy, 15). Over the past two games, he has created just two pressures.
Nix has been marvelous at evading sacks, but he is also creating far too many scenarios that require evasion. These past two outings have been much calmer on that front.
Accuracy, footwork, and poise are all aspects of quarterbacking fairly isolated from the defense. Defensive pressure can impact all those things, and it is also an area where Carolina is lacking, but generally speaking, the improved mechanics and offensive feel should carry over.
If it does, and if Bo Nix can keep the passing game rolling in Baltimore, Broncos Country might have something to start getting excited about, even if Denver loses the game.
Adam Trautman
Adam Trautman had tallied 236 receiving yards over his first 24 games in orange and blue, good for 9.8 yards per game — a paltry sum, even relative to the other low-wattage options the Denver Broncos have had at the position ever since Julius Thomas’ departure.
On Sunday however, Trautman decided to celebrate National Tight End Day in style, snagging four passes for 85 yards and a sick one-handed touchdown. That performance now counts for more than a quarter of his yardage total in Denver and nearly 10 percent of the entirety of his yardage production over the course of his career.
The performance was likely also enough to plant the final nail in Greg Dulcich’s time in Denver.
All-in-all, an easy ‘stock up.’
The Future of the Denver Broncos’ Pass Rush
Entering this season, one of the Denver Broncos’ largest X-factors was the defensive front.
Jonathon Cooper and Baron Browning had expiring deals, Zach Allen was a solid starter but was also an underwhelming ‘ace’ for the room to boast, and the team had little other proven talent. There was potential for things to go well if Denver got some breaks, but it felt like there was an even greater chance the group could wind up as an utter disaster.
Vance Joseph might want to hit up a blackjack table after seeing how these first eight weeks have panned out, as he has gotten damn near every single positive break imaginable.
Zach Allen took the leap from ‘star’ to ‘superstar’ and has arguably become the league’s most productive interior pass-rusher out of nowhere, with more pressures and QB hits than any of his peers. Malcolm Roach and D.J. Jones are also experiencing career years.
On the edge, Jonathon Cooper has played like a man possessed, and even though Baron Browning has disappointed, it hasn’t mattered because Nik Bonitto has been so amazing, most recently tying Von Miller’s franchise record of six consecutive games with at least one sack. Jonah Elliss has also been an immediate contributor. Elliss currently ranks second among all rookies in PFF’s Pass Rush Productivity metric and is just 0.5 sacks behind the rookie leader in the category. He’s also created as many pressures in the last two weeks as Browning has across all four of his appearances this season. They even got solid snaps out of UFL star Dondrea Tillman, making him someone for Broncos Country to keep an eye on.
This lands In ‘Stock Up’ this week though because, with Bonitto on the tear he’s been on following Browning’s Week 2 injury, it appears the Denver Broncos’ future along the defensive front has begun to crystalize.
Cooper’s breakout season will likely result in a well-earned extension from the club that drafted him, while Bonitto has an excellent chance of being rewarded with a new deal before he enters his 2025 contract season. With the Broncos investing in Cooper and Bonitto, Browning will hit the market, Jonah Elliss will take his place, and Dondrea Tillman will round out the room, giving Denver a solid edge room from top to bottom, even if it’s lacking in star power.
That vision seems especially real when considering the fact Baron Browning is one of the two names we’ve consistently heard the Broncos are looking to sell this deadline and the only one of the two worth a draft pick.
Such a trade would also make sense for Denver, as they should be active enough in 2025’s free agency spree to negate any compensatory pick gained by Browning’s departure. It’s better to get something for his departure than nothing.
The defensive interior is slightly murkier, but we still should have a pretty good idea of the unit’s foundation moving forward. With Allen playing like this, it would be stunning if the Broncos didn’t extend him early in 2025, or at the end of his deal, following next season. John Franklin-Myers and Malcolm Roach are also under contract through 2025, but Denver will likely wait on extending them considering their age.
D.J. Jones is the room’s biggest mystery. He’s been tremendous this season, but with his contract expiring, he’s due for a sizeable raise, and the Broncos have a lot of players on the defensive front they’ll be looking to pay this offseason anyway. Odds would probably favor Jones playing elsewhere in 2025, but it wouldn’t be shocking if Payton, Paton and Co. opted to go all-in on their defensive line as a foundational element for this new era of Broncos football.
The backend depth on the interior, led by Jordan Jackson, also looks the best it has in a while and is under contract for the next couple of seasons.
Not only has the future of this room become much easier to project over these first two months of the season, but it looks pretty damn bright too.
Courtland Sutton
Much was made about Courtland Sutton having the first target-free game of his career on Thursday Night Football (even though he did have a target, it was just erased by penalty).
Unsurprisingly, he was made the focal point of the offense the very next game. Sutton was targeted 11 times and turned those targets into season-highs in receptions, yards, yards per target, and yards per route run.
The connection between him and Nix looked the best it has all season, thanks to Nix showcasing more comfort than he had demonstrated at any point earlier this season, and Nix having the best day of his young career firing downfield.
If this outburst, both from Sutton and Nix, was a product of the rookie’s growth and a developing bond, instead of simply being the product of a porous Panther defense, it would be a game-changer for Denver’s offense the rest of this season.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN
Riley Moss
Riley Moss has been a damn junkyard dog ever since getting his first preseason action. He’s a true glass-eater, which is the type of colorful descriptor generally reserved for fullbacks and neck-roll-donning linebackers, but he makes it work.
So, with that in mind, it’s acceptable and understandable that he would have an ugly game here or there in his first season starting. That said, his showing against the Carolina Panthers demonstrated a considerable step down from where he set the bar through the first seven games of 2024.
Even though he was facing this year’s most inept quarterback not named Deshaun Watson, and a bevy of backup receivers that are typically buried one of the worst starting trios in the league, Moss was picked on quite a bit.
When Bryce Young targeted Moss on Sunday, Young was 6-for-7 for 88 passing yards and a touchdown, equalling a perfect passer rating of 158.3.
Prior to this week, Moss had allowed a passer-rating-when-targeted that was better than 92.0 just one time this season — Week 3, when an immaculate catch-and-throw from Baker Mayfield to Chris Godwin beat him. Even then though, without that score that featured near-perfect coverage from Moss, the second-year corner would have sacrificed a passer rating of 66.25 when targeted.
He hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been pretty damn close, and, prior to Sunday, no team had been able to victimize him. The Panthers accomplished that feat without a doubt.
Javonte Williams
It feels like every single time Javonte Williams provides a glimmer of hope that his 2021 self might be back, he follows it up with a stinker, much like he did these past two weeks.
The Carolina Panthers entered Week 8 with a bottom-four rushing attack, both in terms of success rate and EPA allowed. Despite this though, Williams posted his worst yards-per-carry average (2.6 YPC) since the first three weeks of the season, when many in Broncos Country were demanding his benching.
Williams looked lethargic and sapped of his trademark explosiveness, all while still making the same mental mistakes in the run game that he’s always been prone too.
Although he carried the ball more times than he had in any other game this season, he failed to convert a single first down or reach the endzone. It was the first time this year that Williams had more than five carries and failed to convert on any of them.
Nix’s performance inspires a lot of confidence in the rookie signal-caller, but nonetheless, the foundation of this offense in 2024 should be the run game. When Javonte Williams is playing like this, it can’t be.
Broncos Country might want to circle running back instead of wide receiver at the trade deadline.
