In 40 years from now, if there is still a National Football League, fans will look back on this past chapter in Denver Broncos history, ranging from 2016 to 2023, as one of the darkest the franchise has ever suffered.
With the Broncos punching their ticket to the postseason with a 38-0 throttling of the Kansas City Chiefs backups, that chapter is officially closed.
There’s no telling what this next chapter will bring, but it figures to be a hell of a lot brighter than the muck Broncos Country has waded through for nearly a decade.
Who are the ones leading the way out of the mire of the past, and who is hanging back in the swamp? Let’s take a look!
Note: Apologies for missing the past two weeks as I took some time off for the holidays. The resolution for 2025 is to write more, so expect more stock reports and more non-stock-report-themed write-ups in the near future.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP
Bo Nix
The box score didn’t show it, but Nix’s struggles in the second half of the Chargers game and the first half of the Bengals game were major factors in Denver’s two-game slide.
The opposing defenses took away the heavily designed layups that had become the foundation of the Broncos offense, and Nix struggled to pivot in a way he hadn’t earlier in the season. It felt, from the outside looking in, like Nix’s five interceptions in two games against the Colts and Browns rattled his confidence and made him a little gunshy when asked to operate outside the offense’s least demanding concepts.
In the second half against the Cincinnati Bengals, Nix snapped out of his funk, and in Week 18 against the Chiefs, he was unstoppable.
Here are both angles of the absurd throw and catch from Bo Nix to Marvin Mims. Just a perfect throw and the concentration from Mims to track, catch, and get both feet in is insane. pic.twitter.com/gZzcmRoWgy
— Frankie Abbott (@FrankiesFilm) December 29, 2024
Nix set the Broncos’ franchise record for single-game completion percentage and led the league in EPA per dropback for Week 18 with a 26-for-29 performance that saw him accumulate 321 yards and four passing touchdowns.
Yes, it came against a squad of mostly backups, and Steve Spagnuolo wasn’t dialing up the heat on the rookie, but it’s still valuable for Nix to get that confidence boost on the eve of the playoffs.
The rookie is headed to the #NFLPlayoffs!
— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
Bo Nix made sure to show @Broncos fans ALL the love after the game 🧡💙 pic.twitter.com/qtEfZq3bOA
Pat Surtain II’s Hall-of-Fame case
Yes, you read that header right.
With Pat Surtain II now sitting at -500 to win Defensive Player of the Year, and that being the spotlight of the last article in this series, it seems wasteful to dwell simply on that one award. That’s especially true considering the fact that, in the coming weeks, Surtain’s impending DPOY victory will be qualified by the lack of strong competition for this year’s crown.
"Patrick Surtain II is the best corner in the National Football League" ~ @DariusJButler #PMSLive #BroncosCountry https://t.co/U5dFVMp9oi pic.twitter.com/ppzB6PQqmZ
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) January 8, 2025
Don’t let that noise fool you. Surtain isn’t merely the beneficiary of a weak field. He’s having a legitimately historic season at the position that should be mentioned in debates about the best cornerback season of the 21st century, alongside Champ Bailey in 2006 and Darrelle Revis in 2009.
Except, while Revis and Bailey were robbed of the award, Surtain is likely to finish the job and take home the hardware. In that regard, Surtain is helped by the weaker field, as this award unfairly overlooks cornerbacks because it’s stat-based, and great cornerbacks aren’t thrown at enough to produce dizzying stat totals. It’s the same reason why running backs have won Offensive Player of the Year 27 times, while no offensive lineman or tight end has ever won the award.
Thankfully, advanced metrics have helped fill that gap some, aiding Surtain’s pursuit of the award.
Surtain leads everyone in the NFL in missed tackle rate, with only one missed tackle all season on 46 attempts, which is a remarkable feat for a cornerback. He also ranks second in total EPA allowed (-24.0) and first in EPA allowed per target (-0.429), as well as fourth in passer rating allowed (59.1) among all boundary corners with at least 300 coverage snaps.
These stats are still flawed though. A cornerback’s EPA and passer rating allowed are only impacted when they’re targeted, and the best cornerbacks aren’t targeted often.
Surtain finished second in snaps per target (11.5) and sixth in snaps per reception allowed (16.2). He also allowed 0.48 yards per coverage snap this year. If a receiver averaged that few yards per route, it would be the third-worst efficient season by any pass catcher since 2010.
The most impressive aspect of Surtain’s case though is likely his performances against the league’s best. In his 92 coverage snaps against Pro Bowl pass catchers, the standout corner was targeted 16 times, allowing just six receptions for 56 yards and two interceptions.
.@Broncos @PatSurtainll does it all! He deters QB's from going to his direction; he lives to Man you Up and Lock you Down; and he cuts the field off in half. Rare Skills and is going to get Mega-Votes for DPOY. #BaldysBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/crksANUHg1
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 9, 2025
That results in a passer rating of just 8.3. The passer rating of throwing nothing but incomplete passes is 39.0. In 2024, if you’re a quarterback with a Pro Bowl pass-catcher and Surtain in coverage, it is four times better to just throw the ball into the dirt than to try and target your star weapon. Surtain also allowed just 0.29 yards per coverage snap when assigned to a Pro Bowl receiver.
At season’s end, Surtain will almost certainly secure just the third DPOY award for a cornerback in the last 30 years and his second first-team All-Pro nod at just 24 years old.
Only 14 cornerbacks have ever received three first-team All-Pro odds, and of those 14, 11 are in the Pro Football Hall-of-Fame. The only three on that list not presently enshrined in Canton are Richard Sherman, Patrick Peterson, and Jalen Ramsey, who will all have a great shot at the Hall-of-Fame once they are eligible for it.
In a couple of months, we will likely be talking about how, before his 25th birthday, PS2 is one first-team All-Pro nod from cementing his Hall-of-Fame case.
Marvin Mims Jr.
In recent weeks, Marvin Mims Jr.’s role has expanded past the ‘gadget player’ label, providing the Denver Broncos with a higher offensive gear the team previously didn’t know it was capable of.
Mims almost singlehandedly kept the door open for Denver with his 51-yard touchdown reception from Nix, where he tore the roof off the Cincinnati defense, perfectly tracked the ball, and managed to keep his feet in bounds despite his momentum, and his game-tying touchdown snag over two Bengals defenders in the game closing moments.
BO NIX AND MARVIN MIMS HOLY SMOKESSSSSSS
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) December 29, 2024
pic.twitter.com/996jWfUKt3
Those plays were especially meaningful because they were both real-deal receiver plays. We know Mims is deadly with the ball in his hands in space, and that’s continued throughout this hot close to the season — as seen in his touchdowns against the Chiefs — but his development as a more well-rounded weapon is huge for the future of the offense.
Broncos Country
The Denver Broncos’ nine-year playoff drought is a large black mark on the near-spotless tapestry of the franchise’s history.
A pinnacle of stability, the Broncos held the longest active streak in the NFL of not suffering back-to-back losing seasons until the streak ended in 2018. 2024 finally marked the end of eight consecutive years of losing seasons. The Broncos haven’t been that bad that consistently since the late 1960s.
Now, a new era begins, and the team has its most accomplished head coach since Mike Shanahan and its best homegrown quarterback since John Elway.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN
Javonte Williams
The vibes are presently immaculate in Broncos Country, but it feels overly schmaltzy to cut this section entirely. Nonetheless, we’ll keep it brief with the negatives.
At season’s end, it’s easy to feel great about the outlook for most of Denver’s roster. It’s chock-full of young, ascending pieces that should continue to grow as the team progresses toward its ultimate goal.
That can’t be said for Javonte Williams, who looks more and more like a 2003 Toyota Corolla nearing 300,000 miles with each subsequent appearance. Williams used to lumber forward with five Ravens on his back, and now he trudges forward without any defenders weighing him down.
Williams should have a future in the league as a third-down back who thrives in pass-protection situations, but he’ll likely be on the backend of some other team’s depth chart in 2025.
P.J. Locke
This inclusion pains me, as Let’s Talk Broncos has always been a big fan of P.J. Locke, but the experiment this year just hasn’t quite panned out.
Now, an awesome third safety who doubles as a special teams ace still has real value in the league, and, following his 2024 starting campaign, it feels like that’s probably where Locke would be best utilized moving forward.
The Broncos still have serious safety depth problems, and simply sliding Locke into that role would remedy them and further bolster the special teams. The fly in the ointment will be finding an upgrade to start ahead of him.
