Denver Broncos Stock Up/Stock Down: Broncos Further Cement New Identity in Browns W

Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on during a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 29: Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on during a game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 29, 2023 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Over the past few months, there’s been a growing sense that these are no longer the ‘same old Denver Broncos’ from the past eight seasons.

They’re not losing games to bad opponents that they should be expected to take care of. They’re not regularly shooting themselves in the foot. They’re able to win, even when they show up flat and their opponent is hot.

Now, Broncos Country can add, ‘they’re able to win a shootout in primetime’ to the list.

Throughout the Monday Night Football instant classic, there was a simmering sense of dread inside Empower Field at Mile High Stadium that the Broncos would find some way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, as they had done so many times before in the post-Manning era.

Instead, Bo Nix hit Marvin Mims Jr. up the seam for a 93-yard score, Ja’Quan McMillian scored a game-sealing pick-six, and the Denver Broncos gobbled up the W.

Who led the way for these new-age Broncos on Monday night, and who disappointed? Let’s look.

Last Week’s Stock Report
Week 12 Stock Report

DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP

Denver Broncos cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian (29) celebrates after a defensive play during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 6: Denver Broncos cornerback Ja’Quan McMillian (29) celebrates after a defensive play during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

Ja’Quan McMillian

Ja’Quan McMillian has unfairly been the target of a lot of criticism from Broncos Country this season because he was the weakest link in a uniquely dominant cornerback room. Twitter goons have lobbied for his eventual replacement, or have simply just left it at calling him a negative on defense.

On Monday Night Football, McMillian got his justice.

First, Broncos Country was finally exposed to what subpar cornerback play actually looks like.

McMillian was heavily targeted when both Riley Moss and Pat Surtain II were healthy because, although he’s an excellent nickel-corner, he hasn’t quite been at the level Moss and Surtain have been this season, but the drop-off hasn’t been glaring.

Levi Wallace was fileted and roasted alive because he’s a very low-end boundary cornerback at this stage in his career, and, with both Surtain and McMillian out there, he presents a clear defensive insecurity for the opposing offense to exploit.

And exploit it the Cleveland Browns did, but more on that in ‘Stock Down’.

Second, and more importantly, McMillian played out of his mind on the primetime stage, bolstering his nationwide household name recognition.

McMillian tallied three pass breakups and a game-winning pick-six on 10 targets, while the rest of the team combined managed just two additional pass breakups and two interceptions. McMillian’s timing was impeccable all night, as he consistently fired downhill to separate the receiver from the ball the moment it arrived.

Broncos Country should have nothing but flowers for Ja’Quan McMillian’s game after the situation was put in perspective for them against the Browns.

Nik Bonitto

Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) is sacked by Denver Broncos linebacker Jonathon Cooper (0) and linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) during a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

If one inserts themselves into the ‘Defensive Player of the Year’ conversation after entering the week with +10,000 odds to win the award (100:1 for those of you who prefer that style), it’s a safe bet they’re going to be featured in the ‘Stock Up’ section.

Now, at +3,000, Bonitto is still a distant longshot to win the award, but the fact his candidacy was a main talking point on every ESPN, NFL Network and Fox Sports show for the 24 hours following MNF still speaks volumes about his performance.

Bonitto turned the game on its head with his pivotal pick-six that transformed a promising Cleveland drive, where the Browns had a chance to steal the lead, into a 21-10 deficit that Jameis Winston and Co. spent most of the remaining time trying desperately to climb out of.

With a takedown of Jameis Winston, Bonitto also kept his hot streak and hopes of an NFL sack crown alive. His 11 sacks over the past 11 games is tied for the 11th-most in franchise history over any such span. He also trails Trey Hendrickson by only 0.5 sacks for the league lead.

Bonitto is beginning to position himself as more than just a key contributor on defense. He’s now starting to emerge as the type of foundational superstar you build a unit around, like Pat Surtain II.

Marvin Mims Jr.

Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) during a game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 13, 2024, at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 13: Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) during a game between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers on October 13, 2024, at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. (Photo by Kevin Langley/Icon Sportswire)

Two months ago, it seemed like Marvin Mims Jr.’s role with the Broncos was on life support, as he risked going the way of Greg Dulcich.

Now, he’s returned to the fold as a starting wide receiver, and projects to be a secondary or tertiary weapon on the Denver Broncos offense for the foreseeable future. Reaching that baseline point of functionality is huge for Mims going forward, as he needs reps in order to develop, but he wasn’t getting any reps until he carved out this niche in the offense in recent weeks.

But why does he land in ‘Stock Up’ this week? Outside the game-changing bomb — which admittedly had more to do with the throw and Denzel Ward being a tick late than it did some remarkable display of skill from Mims — the second-year receiver hauled in just two catches, totaling a mere 12 yards.

Mims earned this recognition this week because, against the Browns, he won in a different way than he had the past several weeks. Among receivers with at least 5 targets between Weeks 10 and 12, only KaVontae Turpin (83.3%) saw a higher rate of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage than Mims (75%).

Against the Browns, Mims was used as the open-space playmaker he’s proven to be since Week 10, but he also had half of his targets come on deep shots 20-plus yards down the field, with one resulting in the aforementioned touchdown. Now, yes, of course, the other deep ball sent his way was intercepted by Denzel Ward, but that turnover had little-to-nothing to do with Mims’ efforts on the play, so he shouldn’t be punished for that outcome.

Instead, it’s exciting to see Mims used not only as an effective gadget player but also as the downfield threat he was drafted to be.

Courtland Sutton

Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) look on before a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 27: Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) and quarterback Bo Nix (10) look on before a game between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 27, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

This one is cheating a little, as Courtland Sutton’s stock was already extremely high, and it’s difficult to say his multi-drop performance against the Cleveland Browns raised the bar for him.

However, while that one individual performance, in a vacuum, doesn’t raise his stock, the greater tapestry that was part of does raise his stock price.

With his six receptions for 102 yards on Monday Night Football, Sutton has now racked up the most receiving yards by any Broncos player over a six-game span since Demaryius Thomas in 2015. If you add the three touchdowns Sutton has snagged over that stretch, you have to go back to Thomas’ 2014 campaign to find a grouping of six games with production eclipsing what Sutton has done over the past month-and-a-half.

Sutton has proven he shouldn’t just be a band-aid to support Nix through 2024 before the team parts ways in the summer. He should be retained and remain a stabilizing force in Nix’s development for years to come.

DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN

Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph prior a game between the Denver Broncos and the visiting Cincinnati Bengals on December 15, 2018 at Sports Authority Field in Denver, CO.
DENVER, CO – DECEMBER 15: Denver Broncos head coach Vance Joseph prior a game between the Denver Broncos and the visiting Cincinnati Bengals on December 15, 2018 at Sports Authority Field in Denver, CO.(Photo by Russell Lansford/Icon Sportswire)

Levi Wallace and Vance Joseph

It feels very hard to divorce these two from one another, so both Levi Wallace and Vance Joseph lead off this week’s “Stock Down” segment.

First, Levi Wallace delivered one of the worst games from a cornerback in recent memory. For large stretches of Monday’s slobber-knocker, it felt like Cleveland’s offensive gameplan was simply “throw at No. 39,” and, honestly, that would’ve been a completely viable strategy.

When targeted, Wallace allowed Jameis Winston to complete 60% of his passes at 15.4 yards per attempt, and score two touchdowns, for a passer rating of 143.75.

It didn’t matter whether Wallace was matched up with Elijah Moore, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, or Michael Woods II. Either way, he was cooked more thoroughly than a senior citizen’s steak order.

Nor did it matter whether the Browns wanted to attack him underneath or deep down the field. Any sort of attack resulted in him being flamed worse than an impatient child’s campfire marshmallow.

So, considering this incredibly obvious weak point, why were the Denver Broncos so slow to adapt?

That falls on Vance Joseph.

Now, desires for the Broncos to simply have had Pat Surtain II shadow Jeudy all night are a bit oversimplistic, but nevertheless, it’s certainly fair to critique the frequency at which Joseph allowed the Browns to avoid that matchup, and victimize Levi Wallace.

The larger concern with Vance Joseph coming out of this game was the painfully slow personnel adjustment. It became very clear to seemingly everyone else watching the game that Wallace just didn’t have the juice to keep up with any of the Browns’ receivers at this stage in his career. Yet, it wasn’t until late in the fourth quarter, with the game on the line, that Joseph attempted to make a switch.

Now, had that change gone terribly, it ironically would’ve exonerated Joseph some, as it would’ve clarified the reason he was originally hesitant to make the swap.

Instead, Kris Abrams-Draine entered his first-ever NFL action in a high-leverage spot and played well. His very first defensive snap of the game even saw him lock down Jerry Jeudy and help contribute to a Jameis Winston sack. Ultimately, Abrams-Draine was targeted three times and allowed just one reception — the toe-tap snag from Moore that immediately preceded McMillian’s pick-six.

The Denver Broncos will likely be without Riley Moss for at least a few more weeks, and they’ll need better decision-making from Joseph to keep their playoff hopes intact.

Javonte Williams

Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) celebrates after a first down run during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.
DENVER, CO – OCTOBER 6: Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) celebrates after a first down run during a game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on October 6, 2024 in Denver, Colorado.(Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire)

It’s painful to admit, but it might just be time for the Denver Broncos to throw in the towel on Javonte Williams.

The fourth-year back has totaled 59 rushing yards on 22 carries (2.7 yards per carry) over the Denver Broncos last four games, with all 59 of those yards coming against a dismal Atlanta Falcons defensive front. The other three games have seen Williams gain zero yards despite toting the ball 13 times.

On the season, Javonte Williams has -30.0 total rushing expected points added. That total is the fifth-worst in the NFL. He’s also averaging -0.6 rushing yards over expectation, meaning he’s gaining one less half-yard on every carry, relative to what you’d expect from the average back, which is the worst RYOE rate in the NFL among the 42 backs with at least 80 carries.

Since Week 8, Williams has had a positive RYOE or positive rush EPA figure just once. Over those past six games, Williams has totaled -57 RYOE, leaving him with an astonishingly poor -1.1 RYOE/carry — twice as bad as his season-long league-worst figure.

His -19.0 rush EPA total during that span earned him an average of -.373 EPA per carry, effectively meaning that giving roughly eight carries to Javonte Williams was akin to wiping a field goal off the board.

For comparison’s sake, Nathan Peterman has a career EPA per dropback of -.319, while Josh Rosen falls at -.314

-.373 EPA per carry would be the third-worst rush EPA average for any back with at least 30 carries this season (Williams has 51 over this six-game span), if extrapolated over the full campaign but the reality is even grosser than that figure sounds at face value.

The worst thing a running back can do, at least through the lens of EPA, is lose a fumble. The two backs that rank worse than Williams’ past six weeks in EPA per carry have both lost two fumbles in 65 carries. Even the quarterback examples above were notorious for turning the ball over.

Williams, to his credit, hasn’t fumbled once during this stretch. Unfortunately, that means all of the negative value Williams is creating is coming from his inefficiency as a runner, rather than one or two extreme negative outliers, which his peers in this embarrassing club can claim.

Meanwhile, Jaleel McLaughlin is showing real promise as a quality alternative, notching a positive RYOE figure in four of the past six games, and a positive rush EPA in five of the past six games. Audric Estime has also been intriguing, albeit in a small sample.

No matter the alternatives though, at this point, Williams has proven that he is one of the biggest negative factors on this offense and that his role has to be reduced.

Picture of Zach Segars
Zach Segars