Before we get into the Denver Broncos’ 33-10 dusting of the New Orleans Saints, I have to apologize for missing last week’s stock report. It was the first I had ever missed, and missing it was physically painful for me.
Nonetheless, we forge on, much like the Broncos. After authoring a performance they’d like to forget in Week 6 against the Los Angeles Chargers, the squad bounced back to deliver maybe their best game of the season, despite traveling to New Orleans on a short week.
Who were the biggest standouts, and who were the few players with a bad week in The Big Easy? Let’s look.
Previous Stock Reports
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP
Denver Broncos Rushing Attack
Following the Week 5 victory against the loathed Las Vegas Raiders, we highlighted how it looked like Javonte Williams could finally be back to pre-injury form and that this running game seemed to be hitting its stride.
The loss to the Los Angeles Chargers put a damper on that, as the rushing attack found itself mired in the muck for the entirety of the contest, save for Nix’s remarkable scrambles.
However, now that we’ve seen them run all over the New Orleans Saints and tally the most rushing yards for a Broncos team in a single game since the legendary 2013 offense, it feels like this newfound ground game has some staying power. Sure, they came up short against the league’s best run defense, but almost everyone is — that’s what makes the Chargers run-stopping squad so elite.
In Week 7, the Denver Broncos had a ‘successful’ run on 70.4% of their carries, and posted an EPA/rush of 0.245, both of which were the best in the league, by far, this week. In fact, the rushing success rate is the best mark any team has recorded in a single game this season, while only two other teams managed to notch an EPA/rush of at least 0.06.
Some of that is undeniably the fact that New Orleans is beat up more than any other team in the league right now, and that the Saints appeared like they just didn’t want to be there, frankly.
Nonetheless, it takes two sides to create that level of dominance.
Javonte Williams broke away for three explosive carries, bringing his running total over the last four games to eight explosive runs, which ties the second-best mark of his career for a four-game span. He also averaged 3.57 yards after contact per carry, which is the 10th-highest average of his career for a single game, but the highest average since his return from injury, topping the 3.54 mark he had just two weeks ago against the Las Vegas Raiders.
Over the first three weeks of the season, Williams averaged -0.62 EPA per carry. Over the last four weeks of the season, Williams is averaging .08 EPA/carry. Only four running backs (Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, Jerome Ford, and Brian Robinson) are averaging more on the season. Plus, that number is being sandbagged by his fumble against the Chargers.
More evidence that this might be the old Javonte Williams.
The other major development for the run game was Bo Nix’s involvement. Prior to this week, Nix had been running, but almost entirely as a scrambler. He amassed 152 scramble yards to just 28 designed rushing yards through the first six games. On Thursday though, those numbers flipped, as he gained 42 yards on designed carries, compared to just 33 on scrambles.
Now, no one is suggesting you neuter Bo Nix’s scrambling prowess. It’s quite the opposite. Nix’s scrambling proves how effective he can be as a runner, so the Denver Broncos should lean further into that.
Finally, the run game was also bolstered by Audric Estime’s return these past few weeks. Estime has already reached 56 rushing yards, despite only carrying the ball nine times. Unfortunately, he also already has two fumbles, which is simply unacceptable. That said, if he can get a better hold of the football, he figures to make Denver’s run game that much more potent.
Cody Barton
On Thursday Night, the ghost of Dick Butkus, Jack Lambert or some other legendary defender possessed the body of Cody Barton.
Barton’s presence was felt all over the field down-to-down. He made pivotal tackles on third downs mere inches short of the line to gain, broke up plays in coverage, took the ball away multiple times, scored a defensive touchdown, and would have had a second defensive touchdown, if not for D.J. Jones jumping offsides.
It’s the type of game your linebacker might have in a ‘Create-a-Player’ mode on ‘rookie’ difficulty and was probably the single-most impactful off-ball linebacking performance the Broncos have had since at least their last Super Bowl victory.
An underrated storyline in the narrative of the 2024 Broncos’ defensive dominance is the fact that it all could have gone bust, had Justin Strnad and Cody Barton not been ready to fill in for Alex Singleton. Not only have they filled in, but they’ve potentially taken the unit to new heights.
Sean Payton
As Bo Nix has experienced an up-and-down start to his NFL career, a lot of fingers have been pointed at Sean Payton, for both fair and unfair reasons.
The fanbase demanded an offense that more closely aligned with the strengths Nix was demonstrating, and on Thursday night, they got precisely that.
The quarterback run game was a bigger part of the equation than ever, the offense ran with more tempo, how frequently they were using RPOs was dialed up, and Nix had multiple wide-open receivers schemed up downfield early on. Nix had to target a tight window on just 3.8% of his attempts — the second-lowest rate in the league for Week 7.
As a result, up until the Denver Broncos called the dogs off in the fourth quarter, every drive but one ended in points. And that outlying drive ended after Nix misfired to an open receiver on three consecutive attempts.
From a structural standpoint, it was pretty damn flawless.
Offensive play-calling and architecture aside, Sean Payton deserves his flowers from Broncos Country.
By any team-building metric imaginable, this should be a rebuilding squad with eyes on a top-five pick, rather than a potential wild-card spot. Plenty of Denver’s past head coaches failed to ever sniff this level of functionality, and they didn’t have as many excuses as Payton presently has.
This team is already well-coached and challenging for the playoffs in back-to-back seasons with both hands tied behind its back and an uneven rookie quarterback at the helm. Imagine what Coach Payton can have this team achieve once those hands are untethered and the quarterback has settled in.
Bo Nix
Bo Nix fully deserved to be clowned for his embarrassingly bad misses on primetime. For as long as his career lasts, he might never live those meme clips down.
That said, the fact Nix only had four ghastly misses, still consistently moved the offense downfield, demonstrated a new layer to his threat as a runner, avoided all negative splash plays, and had the game moving slower for him is enough to land him in the ‘Stock Up’ section.
Even against stiffer competition, if the Denver Broncos can continue to consistently give Nix easy answers, they should be able to maintain some semblance of offensive efficiency given what Nix demonstrated in the Superdome.
Although the vertical element was still lacking, the Broncos went 10-for-12 on throws within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage at 7.1 yards per attempt, and Nix ended the week among the league’s top-10 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback.
This isn’t to say there aren’t still some massive flaws in his game that need correcting. His pocket management is very poor, and if he wasn’t so Houdini-like at escaping the pressures he’s creating, we would be having similar conversations to those we had regarding Russell Wilson last season.
The accuracy is the other major flaw at this point. Sean Payton hasn’t done the best job providing layups up until this week, but still, even when the layup is there, Nix is far too prone to smoke it and kill the play.
There is a compelling case for optimism among Denver Broncos fans though. Both of these problems have similar roots — Nix’s footwork and his over-eagerness to go into ‘creation mode’.
Nix has a tendency to fire off-platform, even when it isn’t needed, and, unsurprisingly, that leads to inaccurate throws. Nix’s bad habit of drifting in the pocket not only leads to inaccurate passes but can also lead the rookie directly into oncoming pressure. Now, again, Nix has been great at cleaning his messes up, but still, oftentimes he’s forced to take a 6-yard scramble rather than firing to the downfield receiver who came wide open 0.5 seconds after Nix had to drop his eyes to work on evading the self-induced pass-rush.
If Sean Payton and Co. can just get Nix to settle down in the pocket, the 2024 season could turn into something special for Broncos Country.
Denver Broncos’ new young core
Sean Payton has been quoted numerous times — and has even said so himself on air — that he views this 2024 Denver Broncos draft class similarly to his 2017 New Orleans Saints draft class.
That is some remarkable praise, especially considering that New Orleans’ 2017 class is one of the best the sport has ever seen. First-round picks Marshon Lattimore and Ryan Ramcyzk have each been some of the best players at their respective positions for the entirety of their careers, with Lattimore earning Defensive Rookie of the Year honors and four Pro Bowls, while Ramcyzk has been named an All-Pro three times. Meanwhile, third-round pick Alvin Kamara has two All-Pro nods and finished sixth in Offensive Player of the Year voting one year. Finally, Marcus Williams and Trey Hendrickson don’t have the All-Pro nods (though Hendrickson has appeared in three Pro Bowls), but both rank among the 11 highest-paid players at their respective positions, and Hendrickson has tallied 60 sacks over the past five seasons, which trails only T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett over that span.
The Denver Broncos could certainly use a class like that, but again, we are talking about an insanely lofty bar.
That said, the returns so far have been exciting.
Bo Nix has the fanbase fired up and is showing, at the least, the potential to become the franchise’s long-awaited answer to the quarterback conundrum; Jonah Elliss is already a much better run-defender than anticipated, along with being a productive pass-rusher (his eight pressures rank fifth among all rookies and his pass-rush-productivity ranks eighth); Troy Franklin and Devaughn Vele have become vital components of the passing attack; and Audric Estime has been the Broncos most effective per-carry rusher if you can overlook the fumbles.
This class isn’t going to claim both the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year awards, as the 2017 Saints did, but it’s still adding to the Denver Broncos’ foundation of young talent — a foundation that will be key as they enter this post-Russell-Wilson-rebuild era.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN
Denver Broncos Tight Ends
Once again, we’re forced to reach on some ‘stock downs’ after the Denver Broncos had such a remarkable performance in Week 7.
First up is the tight end position.
It appears the franchise has thrown in the towel on Greg Dulcich, considering the third-year tight end has been a healthy scratch each of the past four weeks. This is completely understandable, but it also leaves the Denver Broncos with zero real substance at tight end.
Adam Trautman has been the lowest-wattage iteration in the line of low-wattage, hyper-replaceable tight ends that the Broncos have trotted out in recent years, and Lucas Krull’s blocking is exceptionally bad, even in a room of subpar blocking tight ends.
Nate Adkins is a fun, young utility piece, but that’s about the extent of his value.
This is the room the Denver Broncos should look to upgrade at the deadline. David Njoku, come on down.
Baron Browning
Baron Browning didn’t have the return to the gridiron he was hoping for on Thursday night.
Browning tallied just one pressure on 23 pass-rush attempts. Only four other edge-rushers this week rushed the passer that many times while failing to tally multiple pressures. His Pass-Rush Productivity score of 2.4 also ranked 55th out of 65 qualifying edge-rushers.
Now, his 14.3% pass-rush win rate ranked 20th among that same crop of edge-rushers, so his production should progress towards the mean in the coming weeks, but the slow start is still enough to land him in the ‘Stock Down’ category, especially when everyone else had such a strong day.
Turning up the heat on Browning’s seat is the Denver Broncos’ current contract situation at EDGE.
Jonathon Cooper and Baron Browning both have contracts that expire at the end of this season, while Nik Bonitto will become eligible for an extension this summer and is set to hit free agency after next year. It’s extremely likely that no more than two of those three names return to Denver, and while Bonitto and Cooper are experiencing career years, Browning has suffered yet another injury and played poorly upon return.
The decision at EDGE is starting to become much easier for Payton, Paton and Co., and in a way that doesn’t bode well for Browning.
