In terms of heart-breaking endings, the only comparable in recent Denver Broncos history is the 2012 AFC Divisional Round game, when the best Broncos team to not win a Super Bowl came up just short against the eventual Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens.
Having that pain return is no fun, but it’s also the sign that stakes have returned to professional football in the Mile High City. The past several years have featured squads so non-competitive, that every loss could have its glare dimmed by the silver lining of, “well at least it will help the Broncos’ draft pick.”
No longer is that a thought in Denver.
It’s about winning now.
That’s why it hurts so bad to come that close to beating the NFL’s best team and a hated rival, on the road, with playoff hopes on the line. But, at least we can feel again.
Which Denver Broncos are fueling optimism going forward, and which contributed the most to the team’s loss this past Sunday? Let’s look.
Previous Stock Reports
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK UP
The Denver Broncos Franchise
Broncos Country has just finished experiencing its ninth-worst seven-year stretch of football in franchise history.
The seven seasons from 2017-2023 boasted a winning percentage of just .374, which is the worst the Denver Broncos have had over such a span since the first six years of the Super Bowl era.
It’s been a miserable stretch. Fortunately, with it seeming more and more likely that the Broncos have found a quality head coach and a quarterback of the future, those days should be ending.
Instead of staring down the barrel of yet another losing season or another month of meaningless December football, the Broncos are currently projected to win nine regular season games and have a 53% chance at reaching the playoffs, according to FTN’s DVOA model.
The current ascent from also-ran to playoff contender has never been more clear than it was on Sunday, as Denver took the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs to the mat, and were positioned to win, if not for a blocked field goal. Against the NFL’s top team, the Broncos looked like they belonged and, perhaps more importantly, their quarterback went toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes and ultimately made the play that should have won them the game.
On top of that, the Broncos only have two big-ticket free agents to monitor with free agency approaching (Garett Bolles and D.J. Jones), and the 12th-most cap space in the league, meaning the front office should be able to add plenty of talent to the roster.
The new ownership group has also been the stabilizing presence that Denver has desperately needed ever since Pat Bowlen stepped down.
From the ownership group, to the front office, to the coaching staff, to the most important position in the game, it seems like the Denver Broncos have finally set themselves on the right course.
Bo Nix
Part of the reason the future is looking so bright in Broncos Country is the development of Bo Nix.
In the six games he’s played since the Week 4 tropical storm game vs. the New York Jets, Nix has had just one rocky performance and has looked every bit like the hopeful franchise quarterback the Denver Broncos have long awaited.
Bo Nix key two-minute clutch plays at end of half and end of game against arguably the best defense in the league (should have been six more points and a win).
— David Chappine (@davidchappine) November 13, 2024
+ Playmaking ability
+ From-the-pocket dime with velocity and pace over the middle
+ Great spatial awareness
+ Precise… pic.twitter.com/drICgCPrJs
Plus, the numbers support what the eye test says. Since Week 5, Nix has produced like a league-average starter, ranking 19th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks in Expected Points Added (EPA) per dropback, 22nd in success rate, and 14th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE).
Nix’s showing against the Chiefs stood out though because it was the first time he had demonstrated this newfound comfort against an elite defense. Kansas City boasts both a high-end defensive coordinator and an impressive collection of defensive talent, which has helped them rank fourth in defensive Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) this season.
Nonetheless, Nix nearly tripled the EPA/dropback the Chiefs were allowing on the season (.062 EPA/dropback to .183 EPA/dropback) and put together one of the best displays any rookie quarterback has against the Kansas City Chiefs iteration of Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. In fact, that was a higher EPA/dropback than Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, or Brock Purdy posted against this very defense.
The optimism fueled by Nix’s quarterbacking against the Chiefs reached an all-time high when Nix completed a third-down conversion to Courtland Sutton in the game’s final moments — a throw that should have secured the win for the Denver Broncos.
feels like no one is talking about Bo Nix's rookie year – and how Sean Payton is adjusting his system
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) November 13, 2024
So here's 27 minutes from @ColtMcCoy on the Broncos offense pic.twitter.com/CFKXLysojp
It’s incredibly fitting that the defining moment of Nix’s first 10 NFL games came on third down, as Nix’s elite performance on third down has been the most exciting aspect of the rookie quarterback’s play so far.
Over the last month, Nix is fifth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE Composite score on third downs, fifth in success rate, eighth in EPA/dropback, and first in CPOE, demonstrating tremendous development from his early-season bouts with inaccuracy.
Y’all, the Denver Broncos might have a quarterback.
Audric Estime, Marvin Mims Jr., and Devaughn Vele
The Denver Broncos need to overhaul their skill positions, but, considering they don’t have any avenues to do so until the offseason, young players like Audric Estime, Devaughn Vele, and finally Marvin Mims Jr. are getting an opportunity to shine.
On Sunday, they thrived.
Audric Estime tallied 49 yards on his 11 carries before the Broncos offense went into drain-the-clock mode. That’s not exceptional production, but it’s also far better than what Denver has generally been getting from the running back position this season. Estime is also the only Broncos running back with a positive Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE) number.
All-22 Audric Estime's 14 carries against the Kansas City Chiefs.
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) November 14, 2024
⚡️44.8% Snap Share
⚡️63.6% Opportunity Share
⚡️2.1 Yards After Contract Per Attempt
Maybe not the best sample considering the Chiefs are averaging 14 PPR points per game to running backs with 13.2 PPR points… pic.twitter.com/JkZ7cVFkEO
The big worry with Estime’s game was the fact he fumbled twice in his first nine NFL carries. Thankfully, Estime demonstrated considerable growth in that area, as Payton leaned on him to run the clock in the game’s final moments, and Estime protected the ball.
Meanwhile, fellow rookie Devaughn Vele leads the team’s wide receivers in receiving EPA, Catch Rate Over Expectation (CROE), and trails only Mims and Franklin in terms of average separation. He should only continue to eat into Lil’Jordan Humphrery’s snap share as the season goes on.
Bo Nix hits Devaughn Vele for his first career TOUCHDOWN to give the Broncos a 7-0 lead over the Chiefspic.twitter.com/bhM5h816jN
— MileHighReport (@MileHighReport) November 10, 2024
Finally, after finding himself locked in the dog house for the entirety of the last calendar year, Mims might have finally found an avenue back into Coach Payton’s good graces with his performance at running back. Mims finished the day with just 17 yards on three carries, but his aptitude for toting the rock was apparent.
DENVER BRONCOS STOCK DOWN
Alex Forsyth
John Elway, Terrell Davis, Peyton Manning, Von Miller, and plenty of other Denver Broncos have immortalized themselves by etching their moments of glory into the memories of every Denver sports fan.
Similarly, Rahim Moore, Russell Wilson, and Nathaniel Hackett have each formed an indelible legacy tied to their shortcomings or missed opportunities that cost the Broncos. Unfortunately, Alex Forsyth might just be the latest member of that cursed club.
Bo Nix displayed tremendous leadership defending and supporting Alex Forsyth today:
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 14, 2024
"Nobody prepares like Alex Forsyth prepares"
"I think it should be known how valuable he is to our team, how much he is respected" pic.twitter.com/dFVAKetL6Y
After weeks of being the weak link of Denver’s field goal unit, a team finally managed to exploit Forsyth’s shoddy protection efforts, pancaking him with ease and blocking the kick to secure Kansas City the victory. It was just one play, but it was arguably the most costly singular play of the Broncos’ entire season, and it was the culmination of weeks of poor returns in that facet of Forsyth’s responsibilities.
These Are the Little Details That Win Championships….
— DMac Wake (@DMacWake316) November 11, 2024
Alex Forsyth Falling Compilation…
Starting With the Saints Game, Seven Times 54 for Denver Broncos was on his back on FGs/XPs
Chiefs ST Coach Dave Toub Excellent Film Work + Chenal/Danna/Karlaftis Great Execution get it… https://t.co/tTULuGMiVJ pic.twitter.com/OcofMkILom
Only making matters worse, Luke Wattenberg returned to the field on Sunday, was named the starting center over Forsyth, and then had, not only his best game of the season, but the best game by any Broncos center this year.
— Zach Segars (@Zach_Segars) November 14, 2024
Barring injury, it’s hard to see Forsyth’s path to receiving the opportunities necessary to right his unforgettable misstep against the Chiefs.
Javonte Williams
Although Forsyth might have been the most glaringly obvious ‘Stock Down’ candidate, Javonte Williams has to be the most costly one.
Audric Estime and Marvin Mims Jr.’s running back displays were remarkably promising developments for the Denver Broncos, but those adjustments came at a major cost to Williams. On Sunday, the fourth-year running back gained a measly seven yards and touched the ball just three times — the lowest usage of his NFL career and just the third time he’s had fewer than 10 touches in a single game.
Williams falling out of favor was predictable given his recent struggles. Over his last 30 carries, he’s failed to gain even 90 yards in total.
Then, on the season, among 35 qualified running backs, Williams has the fourth-lowest EPA per carry (-0.233), is tied for the fourth-lowest EPA total (-24.0) and the fourth-fewest RYOE per carry (-0.5), and has the sixth-fewest total RYOE (-54).
Strong showings against the Raiders and Saints provided hope that Williams might have finally returned to pre-injury form, but his near-benching vs. the Chiefs feels like the final nail in the coffin.
Justin Strnad
Justin Strnad has been a tremendous find for the Denver Broncos this season. A longtime special-teamer and practice squad member, Strnad had gotten defensive snaps in past seasons and failed to take advantage of those opportunities.
He was a complete disaster against the run, and his coverage skills weren’t nearly polished enough to make up for it. When Singleton suffered a season-ending injury, the prospect of Strnad gobbling up all those snaps was slightly terrifying.
Yet, Strnad has grabbed the starting reps by the reins and done nothing but make his doubters look like clowns.
At least, until this week.
Against Kansas City’s physically imposing, downhill ground game, Strnad was washed out far too often. Plays that would have resulted in a tackle for loss or stuff at the line of scrimmage instead became plays where Hunt was carrying Strnad three yards past the point of initial contact.
That’s a recipe for disaster, especially considering the Broncos were playing a Chiefs offense that is entirely comfortable slowly marching down the field four yards at a time.
It was just one game, but the Strnad hype train has lost a bit of steam.
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton made his share of big plays on Sunday, finishing the day with six catches for 70 yards and a touchdown, over nine targets. The problem lies with the three balls thrown his way that he didn’t catch.
Bo Nix's 32-yard touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton on Sunday was the first reception of 20+ yards allowed by Chiefs CB Trent McDuffie this season, per @ZebraSports.
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) November 14, 2024
Impressive Bo went after him and even more impressive it worked.pic.twitter.com/hoOsj2l7tV
If not for coming off the high of back-to-back 100-yard games, even those mistakes might not have been enough to land him here, but the juxtaposition between the displays forces the star receiver into the ‘Stock Down’ category.
On the first possession of the game, Nix fired Sutton’s way on a slant pattern past the line to gain, only for the ball to ricochet off the pass-catcher’s hands. Two plays later, Denver punted the ball away. His second drop was more costly though.
With time running down as Nix orchestrated a beautiful two-minute drill at the end of the first half, the rookie quarterback hurled a dart 15 yards downfield to Sutton to set up a short-range field goal, only for the ball to fall incomplete after hitting Sutton in the hands. The Broncos then wound up missing their end-of-half field goal attempt just short.
Next up is the drop by Sutton at the end of the 2 minute drill. Deep dig to get one last chunk to get into field goal range and Sutton can't bring it in. Sutton has demonstrated for a long time now that He can't make tough catches over the middle like this and man, its incredibly… pic.twitter.com/z9if2p4T3G
— Josh Stecklein (@JmoneysteckNFL) November 12, 2024
Adding to the pain of that latter mistake was the fact that, right before that miscue, Sutton backed the offense up five yards by lining up offsides when Bo Nix went to spike the football to save the clock.
Without those five penalty yards, or with the 15 yards they could have gained from Sutton’s reception. It’s very likely Lutz’s kick sails through the uprights and gives Denver a seven-point halftime lead.
