As the 2024 offseason starts up, the Denver Broncos once again find themselves in evaluation mode in March.
For the past nine years, the playoffs have been a frustrating time of year for Broncos fans. The enjoyment found watching playoff teams that are filled with premium talent and top-tier coaches can quickly turn into envy. However, this time of year is also a peaceful window of reflection.
The playoffs provide fans with a front-row view as to what championship-caliber teams really look like, allowing for a proper evaluation of the Broncos’ current roster and coaching staff.
2023 was quite a roller coaster of a year for the Broncos.
The team started off with an abysmal 1-5 record, went on one of the most unprecedented turnarounds in NFL history by winning their next five straight, and then came back down to reality with a 2-4 finish. As we sit back and assess the season, there is one man who is undoubtedly the headline throughout it all: Head coach Sean Payton.
From the moment Payton was hired as the 20th coach in Denver Broncos history, the pressure to win was on. Denver had to trade for his rights from the New Orleans Saints, giving up a 2023 first-round pick (pick 29) and a 2024 second-round pick (pick 45) in exchange for Sean Payton and a 2024 third-round pick (pick 81) from the Saints. The cost of acquiring Payton, as well as his previous pedigree of winning in New Orleans, meant that there were high expectations from the moment he entered the building.
In today’s article, we will be evaluating whether or not he has lived up to those expectations.
At a glance, the Broncos’ 8-9 record may indicate that he did not, but there is much more to the story than just the record.
Positives
The Culture
For starters, it is undeniable that Payton helped the Broncos put the Nathaniel Hackett experiment behind them.
From the beginning, it was clear the team would no longer be “player-run” (or Russell Wilson-run), as Payton was in charge and calling the shots. Payton was adamant that he did not want any distractions from the team. This included a huge handicap over Russell Wilson and his brand, as Payton told him to, “stop kissing the babies.”
Furthermore, there were increased restrictions on what media members were allowed to report, as well as a strict social media policy that was enforced among the players. This season indeed had much fewer distractions, as there were fewer stories about “high knees on the plane” or tweets about “getting my conditioning in”.
This style of coaching is very important for the Broncos in their current state.
The unfortunate reality is that the players on the roster are not currently… well… winners.
They still have to learn how to become winners, and that starts by creating a culture that puts emphasis on results and details rather than emotions.
The Broncos’ incredible mid-season turnaround perfectly reflects their dedication to a strong winning culture. The team now has noticeably more fight in them, as three out of their five wins in that stretch were by two points or less. In previous years, the Broncos have often been on the losing side of those close games. That change is perhaps a sign that the team is slowly learning how to win.
This is evidenced in the fact that the Denver Broncos earned an A- grade from the NFLPA in regard to head coach satisfaction — demonstrating that, on average, Coach Payton received a grade better than 9/10 from his players.
How many of your former bosses would have received a 9/10?
Oh, and it’s no big deal, but Sean Payton also led the Broncos to their first victory over the Chiefs since 2015.
Fixing the Special Teams and Offensive Line
What often gets lost in the shuffle this season is the Broncos’ incredible improvements on special teams and the offensive line.
Both units have been huge weaknesses for the Broncos for nearly a decade. Poor return coverages, shanked punts and kicks, and multiple blown blocks or sacks had become staple parts of each Broncos game. However, this was no longer the case in 2023.
The Broncos special teams unit earned a seventh-place finish in Rick Gossellin’s 2023 special teams rankings, citing that they were especially great in the punt return category.
This comes as no surprise, as the Broncos seem to have found their returner of the future in Marvin Mims, who averaged 16.3 yards per attempt.
The coverage units were also much improved, with CB Tremon Smith continuously making an impact as a gunner, while Payton’s trade for K Will Lutz proved to be an upgrade over Brandon McManus.
While PFF grades are by no means the end-all-be-all, the Broncos’ offensive line was consistently graded as a top-10 unit in the league.
The improvements were noticeable on film too, as LT Garrett Bolles had a nice bounce-back year from injury, RG Quinn Meinerz developed into one of the best guards in the league, and C Lloyd Cushenberry III finally had his breakout year.
Not to mention, Russell Wilson has always struggled with taking sacks, which made the Broncos’ offensive line look worse statistically. According to PFF, 15 of Wilson’s 45 sacks were actually attributed to the protection, meaning that Wilson was responsible for the other 30.
Regardless, the improvements in both units are a huge testament to Payton’s staff, as they did something that three previous coaching staffs could not.
Mike Westhoff, Ben Kowtica, and Zach Strief were home-run hires, and Payton deserves credit for identifying them early on.
Negatives
Offensive Struggles
When Sean Payton was hired, Broncos Country expected fireworks on the offensive side of the ball. If anyone could have “fixed” Russell Wilson after the worst year of his career, it was Payton, who turned Drew Brees into a Hall of Famer and won a Super Bowl.
Simply put, it did not happen.
As Payton said in his end of season presser, the Broncos offense was “average to below average” in many categories, including 298.4 yards per game (26th) and 21 points per game (19th). They also only converted 36.8% of third-downs (21st) and scored in the red zone 51.7% of the time (19th).
Statistically, the passing offense had some players who enjoyed bounce-back years. Wilson threw for 3,070 yards and finished with a 26:8 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and WR Courtland Sutton caught 59 passes for 772 yards and 10 touchdowns.
However, the rushing unit was vastly underwhelming, totaling 1,810 yards as a team with Wilson and RB Javonte Williams tying for a team-high three touchdowns.
When looking beyond the stats, the offensive side of the ball lacked a consistent identity.
It was not Payton’s typical offense, which emphasizes the quarterback winning in the pocket through quick game and middle-of-the-field throws. Notably, none of these traits are strengths of Wilson, which meant Payton had to attempt to change his system. Payton tried his best to make it work by running the ball and calling plenty of play-action passes – something that worked for Wilson in Seattle. Unfortunately, Javonte Williams was not his usual self this season, as he had noticeably less power and burst coming off of his season-ending injury in 2022, meaning Payton could not rely on the running game nearly as much as he wanted to.
When trying to come up with a consistent passing attack, there was simply no chemistry between him and Wilson. The Broncos’ most successful passing plays this year were dump-offs to the running back and prayer throws to Courtland Sutton, which is nearly impossible to build an entire offense around.
At the end of the day, the buck stops with Payton on the offensive side of the ball.
While there were certainly some questionable scheme fits on the roster that held him back, he knew about them when he accepted the job, and if the offense was just slightly more productive, the Broncos could have made the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Questionable Free Agent Decisions
In Sean Payton’s first free agency as the head coach, he and general manager George Paton made multiple splash signings at positions of need.
The Broncos signed RT Mike McGlinchey to a five-year, $87 million deal, LG Ben Powers to a four-year, $51 million deal, and DT Zach Allen to a three-year, $45 million deal.
The Mike McGlinchey signing was always hard to support. While he was with the 49ers, he made a name for himself with his run-blocking ability and athleticism. However, his footwork and ability to anchor in pass protection was always a massive weakness, which did not improve during his first year in Denver. McGlinchey was continuously shaky in pass pro in 2023 and contributed to a lot of Russell Wilson’s pressures and sacks.
In addition to McGlinchey, Ben Powers also had his fair share of ups and downs in 2023. While he did not struggle as much as McGlinchey, he failed to be much of a difference-maker at left guard.
Ultimately, the Broncos paid $138 million for McGlinchey and Powers to be the fourth and fifth-best players on the offensive line, which is less than ideal. The best signing by far was Zach Allen, who earned three new career-highs with 50 tackles, five sacks, and one forced fumble.
However, it is not just the players that bring the signings into question, but also the process. It has been widely reported that Payton had his doubts about Wilson being the answer for the Broncos before he accepted the job.
If Payton knew that moving on from Wilson and eating the largest dead cap hit in NFL history was a very real possibility, then it made no sense to be big players in free agency.
The team is now staring a rebuild in the face and is in an even deeper cap deficit due to last offseason’s spending.
To Be Decided
The Russell Wilson Experiment – Who Is to Blame?
What was perhaps the biggest question heading into the 2023 season: Could Sean Payton fix Russell Wilson?
As we know now, he couldn’t.
Payton benched Wilson for backup Jarrett Stidham in Weeks 17 and 18 and then will soon cut Wilson in the offseason.
The new question that all Broncos fans should have is: Who’s to blame? The answer to that will, unfortunately, have to wait until we see Wilson on a new team. Wilson’s production elsewhere in 2024 will provide context as to whether Payton misused Wilson or if Wilson is simply just past his prime.
Wilson had a good year statistically in 2023, but the product on the field each week showed that the pairing of Payton and Wilson simply did not work.
As mentioned earlier, Payton and Wilson both have very different strengths. Payton’s offense thrives off of winning from the pocket, whereas Wilson’s play style thrives off of extending plays outside of the pocket. Payton prefers for the majority of his targets to go over the middle of the field, whereas Wilson mostly targets throws outside of the numbers. Payton has a tendency to call long-developing plays, whereas Wilson often ducks his head early at the sign of pressure and looks to check the ball down.
One could easily go on and on. Payton and Wilson were simply a bad pairing from the start.
What I believe will help Broncos fans side with Payton is the declining skill set of Wilson. While Wilson has certainly had his fair share of success over the years, he is not the same player that he once was and his chaotic style of play is not sustainable with his 35-year-old body.
Payton mentioned in his end-of-season presser that “chaos cannot be your base offense in the NFL”.
This could explain why Payton regressed as a play-caller in 2023, as he simply didn’t know how to build an offense around chaos.
Furthermore, Wilson only completed 18 passes over the middle of the field this season, which is an inexcusable number for an NFL quarterback. Context like this makes Payton’s decision to bench Wilson for Stidham slightly more understandable.
Though, as I mentioned earlier, we won’t know who was truly to blame until we see Wilson in 2024. That said, for now, it makes sense to side with Sean Payton and his proven abilities as a play-caller.
Hiring Vance Joseph as Defensive Coordinator
During the hiring process, Sean Payton was rumored to have an “all-star staff” waiting in the wings that included former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator. Despite his efforts to bring Fangio back to Denver, this did not materialize, and Payton was then forced to choose another former Broncos head coach – Vance Joseph.
Joseph’s season could not have started off worse, with his defense ranking dead last in EPA/play from Weeks 1-5. He was also on the wrong side of a historical beatdown in Week 3, allowing 70 points to the Miami Dolphins.
The defensive struggles were the primary reason for the Broncos’ slow start, as the offense had some of its best performances early in the season.
However, Vance’s defense bounced back and became an average to above-average unit in the NFL for the rest of the season. This included an exceptional 15 forced turnovers from weeks eight to 13, which was the primary catalyst behind the Broncos’ five-game winning streak.
That said, when the unit wasn’t getting turnovers at a historic pace, the Broncos defense struggled to rush the passer and stop the run.
According to Pro Football Focus, the defense finished the year with a 17.9% pass-rush win rate and allowed 4.97 yards per carry. While much of this can be attributed to a lack of talent in the Broncos’ front seven, it is notable that Ejiro Evero was able to get much more production out of what was mostly the same roster in 2022.
All indications are that Sean Payton is going to give Joseph another chance to improve the unit’s consistency in 2024. Though, losing Justin Simmons while having prized hire Jim Leonhard waiting in the wings likely won’t help his case.
The hope is that general manager George Paton is able to provide Joseph with some improved talent in the front seven, while new starters in the defensive backfield keep that unit afloat. Joseph is also going to have to prove that he doesn’t need turnovers in order to field a good defense, as they are one of the most unsustainable statistics in all of football.
Conclusion
In Payton’s introductory press conference, he stressed the importance of details.
He was correct, as the Baltimore Ravens, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, and Kansas City Chiefs are all among the most consistent and detail-oriented teams in the league. The formula for success in the NFL is not a mystery and can be achieved by the Broncos if they have the right leader.
Sean Payton is the right leader for the Broncos.
He was able to achieve milestones that three previous coaching staffs couldn’t while simultaneously improving the culture in the locker room. It’s even more impressive that he did this while dealing with a lack of key difference-makers in important positions and an oil-and-water situation at quarterback.
However, he was not perfect in his first year and will still have a lot to prove moving forward. While the details were improved, the team still lacked consistency in many areas. Not to mention, he still has to figure out the quarterback situation.
Overall, there is plenty to be encouraged with following Payton’s first year as Denver’s head coach. Broncos Country will now turn their attention to the 2024 offseason, where the team can hopefully add young talent to the roster and find their future at quarterback.
