The Denver Broncos have had a relatively quiet free agency period, but they have brought back a lot of their contributors from last season.
Is that good news or bad news, considering 2024’s disappointments?
Let’s take a look.
Note: I tend to default towards starting my grade at an A+ and then knocking it down for every aspect of the signing I dislike. As a result, I give underwhelming signings, like the Burton deal or the Bailey deal, higher grades than one is likely expecting. No, these aren’t A-Grade talents, but they are A-Grade contracts, and to me, that’s what’s being graded here.
Wil Lutz, K
Contract Details: Two years, $8.4 million ($4.2 million in AAV), with $4.5 million guaranteed
This is probably the worst move of the Denver Broncos’ offseason so far, and it’s a kicker contract that only locks the Broncos in for a season, which says more about how prudent they’ve been this offseason than how disastrous this move is.
That said, this deal will make Wil Lutz the NFL’s 11th-highest-paid kicker in terms of AAV, and the 16th-highest-paid in terms of guaranteed money.
Neither of those numbers are terrible, but it does seem pretty rich, coming from a cap-strapped team, to hand that deal 2023’s sixth-worst kicker, according to DVOA. DVOA’s kicking metrics factor in elevation, weather, kicking protection, and several other factors to create a more nuanced approach to evaluating kickers than simple field goal percentage, and those metrics believe Lutz was comfortably one of the league’s worst kickers last season.
This is the exact same problem that Sean Payton inherited, and quickly remedied, with Brandon McManus.
Thankfully, Lutz has yet to publicly toss his teammates under the bus for his missed kicks or become a locker room distraction with sketchy charity antics, so at least the kicking room is better in that regard.
Nonetheless, Denver would have been better off letting Lutz leave for Jacksonville, and then taking a swing on a replacement. Maybe you wind up a little worse at the position, but the downside there is minimized by how poorly Lutz performed and Denver’s current rebuild, while you would have the upside of upgrading on the position while also getting cheaper.
Grade: D
Adam Trautman, TE
Contract Details: Two years, $7.5 million ($3.75 million in AAV), with $5 million guaranteed
The Denver Broncos certainly need tight end help, with Greg Dulcich’s bothersome injuries and Chris Manhertz’s release, and Trautman is a fine placeholder that is adequate at doing most everything this offense will ask of him.
Over the last decade, Denver has been host to a parade of unremarkable, nondescript, mediocre tight ends, with lukewarm talents. From Owen Daniels, to Jeff Heuerman, to Jake Butt, to Eric Saubert, and now, Adam Trautman, the proud tradition lives on.
No, Trautman certainly isn’t a playmaker, but he can eat snaps and play competently for the 2024 Broncos, as they look for their long-term answer at the position. Paying him a little more than Drew Sample is making from the Bengals isn’t exactly bargain, but it isn’t frivolous either.
Grade: B+
PJ Locke, S
Contract Details: Two years, $7 million ($3.5 million in average annual value (AAV)), with $3.3 million guaranteed
Arguably the Denver Broncos’ best signing of the offseason was P.J. Locke.
Locke was tremendous for the Denver Broncos last season, tallying an interception, five pass breakups, two forced fumbles, and, despite only being sent after the passer nine times, recorded three sacks — despite starting a mere eight games.
Consistently thriving in every role he’s been put in, from special teamer, to rotational safety, to starter, he has proven he deserves this opportunity, and given his track record, it’s hard to imagine him failing to outperform this contract.
The contract is for $7 million over two years — with the potential to grow to $9 million if certain incentives are hit — but with how it’s structured, it’s more like a one-year, $2.5 million deal, with a $4.5 million team option for a second season, depending on how the first goes.
That $2.5 million number would slot him slightly below the declining and soon-to-be 37-year-old Kareem Jackson, which is a tremendous bargain. Then, even if he sees that second season, his average annual value falls between Andrew Wingard and Josh Mettelus, both of whom have to work in specifically defined roles, due to glaring limitations in their games.
Again, that seems like quite the bargain.
And again, if the first season goes bad, they can cut him and free up $3.5 million in cap space without sweating.
It is very difficult to imagine this contract being a problem, and it is exceptionally easy to imagine it winding up as a major bargain for the Denver Broncos, as even mediocre starting safeties make $5 million a season, or more. If Locke becomes a quality starter, it would a terrific boost to their rebuild efforts.
Grade: A+
Michael Burton, FB
Contract Details: One year, $1.4 million, with $167,500 guaranteed
This won’t make a tremendous impact on Sundays, as it is the fullback position, but, outside of P.J. Locke, this is probably the Denver Broncos’ best signing of the offseason.
Michael Burton is one of the best fullbacks in the league, and knows Sean Payton’s offense better than any of his contemporaries. Yet still, Burton is making half as much, or a third as much as the NFL’s top fullbacks elsewhere are making.
He’s also far behind those other top fullbacks in guaranteed money.
This looks like an absolute bargain with no asterisks, and an easy out if anything problematic did arise.
The only knock that one could devise is the fact that this signing is at the fullback position, but this writer won’t knock it for that fact.
Grade: A+
Tim Patrick, WR
Contract Details: One year, $1.3 million, with $0 guaranteed
Outside of Courtland Sutton, the inexperienced undrafted free agent Brandon Johnson led this team in receiving touchdowns in 2023. Then, they stripped that unit of its clear No. 2 receiver.
The Denver Broncos are in desperate need of pass-catching reinforcements.
Hopefully Marvin Mims takes a sizable sophomore leap in Payton’s attack, but even still, to have a top-flight passing attack in the modern NFL, you either need Patrick Mahomes or a cast of pass-catchers, and Denver is without either.
Patrick shores up that room quite a bit, so long as he’s anything close to the player he was two seasons ago.
Last season, even as Patrick was coming off an ACL injury, he was being used as the focal point of the passing attack throughout the offseason. People close to Patrick have told me he was under the impression he was set to be the Broncos’ No. 1 target in 2023, and James Palmer’s reports from last summer support that notion.
He’s an idyllic fit for the offense, and everyone in Broncos Country knows what Tim Patrick can be when healthy. They’re also getting him an extremely low price, given the current receiver market, and have hardly any risk associated with the signing.
Grade: A
Lil’Jordan Humphrey, WR
Contract Details: One year, $1.1 million, with $0 guaranteed
All the aforementioned points about the Broncos needing pass-catching help also applies here, and getting Lil’Jordan Humphrey on such a low-cost, low-risk deal is tremendous for Denver.
With his size, strength and understanding of Sean Payton’s offense, Humphrey is able to fill a clear role for the Denver Broncos until they’re able to find an upgrade.
In the meantime, he’s a bargain utility piece for a receiving group looking to improve.
Grade: A
Quinn Bailey, OL
Contract Details: One year, $1.1 million, with $0 guaranteed
At this point, it seems likely that Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey will remain the Denver Broncos’ tackles for at least the 2024 season, but the depth behind those two is a mystery, following Cam Fleming’s departure.
The Broncos made sure to address this, in part, by signing Matt Peart to a one-year deal, and signing Bailey to a vet-minimum contract with no guaranteed money only further bolsters their insurance plan.
Now, even in spite of this signing, Bailey will have an uphill climb to make the roster.
If the reports about Alex Forsyth replacing Lloyd Cushenberry III at center are true, the Broncos will have all five of their starting linemen, their swing interior lineman (Luke Wattenberg) and their swing tackle already installed before the rest of the offseason or the NFL Draft unfolds.
If the Broncos add one more lineman this spring or summer, Bailey becomes extremely expendable, and with zero guaranteed money, cutting him wouldn’t burn them. Then, if they fail to upgrade on Bailey, they’ve secured cheap depth, with experience playing four different spots along the line, and experience in this offense. Sounds like a good deal.
The lone knock is that one would hope that Denver is able to upgrade on Bailey, and this might make them less motivated to do so.
Grade: A
Justin Strnad, LB
Contract Details: One year, with financials TBA
Without knowing the contract details, it’s hard to be overly critical, but the fact the Denver Broncos were metaphorically chasing Strnad down the tarmac, to profess their love before it’s too late, is a troubling omen for the financials.
If this is a deal similar to the Bailey or Humphrey deals, that’s fine, but anything more is too much.
Strnad is simply a special teams player, and he offers nothing as a reserve. The Broncos would be better off spending a Day 3 pick on a linebacker with good special teams tape, as that option would possess a more realistic chance of developmental upside, for a similar price.
Some fans might still be in the mindset of the Broncos having limited picks, but Denver currently ranks 15th in 2024 draft capital, largely powered by a bevy of fifth and sixth-round selections. Addressing the departure of Strnad is a textbook example of how to use those later picks.
All that said, Strnad is solid on special teams, and coaches have consistently raved about his intelligence and presence behind the scenes, and the contract is likely small enough to not make any sort of negative impact on the team, but it does seem like better options were at Denver’s disposal.
Grade: C
