When the Denver Broncos started the 2023 season with a 2-5 record, many fans and analysts alike were wondering if the team made a mistake in hiring Sean Payton to be the team’s head coach. From there, the team managed to claw its way from that record to a 8-9 finish to the season, but there were still underlying issues.
Fortunately for Broncos Country, that wasn’t Coach Payton in his truest form, as the quarterback situation a year ago limited the offense dramatically.
With Russell Wilson under center, two key areas were unusual to see out of a Sean Payton offense.
First, the Broncos took too many sacks under center in 2023. The team gave up 52 sacks, which was good for a 9.2% sack rate on dropbacks. This was the fifth-highest percentage in the NFL.
You can get away with taking a high number of sacks if you’re trading that off for big plays down the field, but that did not occur at a high enough rate either. The team had 46 explosive pass plays (20+ yards gained), which was the 20th-highest rate in the NFL.
When asked about the area the team needed to improve most this season, Payton said “The number one [thing we need to improve] is we can’t take as many sacks. That was the big thing that hurt us a year ago.”
The team also had a checkdown rate of 10.19%, which was easily the highest rate in the NFL. The Broncos’ offense last year did not hit big plays down the field, took too many sacks, and also checked the ball down too often. That’s a recipe for an extremely lackluster passing attack.
The biggest reason for this was simple – Sean Payton and the rest of the Broncos organization, in an attempt to sustain offense with Wilson under center, went to an embarrassingly simple offensive approach that asked the quarterback to make one read before defaulting to the checkdown option. This allowed the team to at least find stability on offense, but they were deeply uninspiring.
Following the season, the team moved on from Wilson and replaced him with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. As a result, the team will go from the diluted version of the Payton offense they had to run, to the true system that Payton wants to run and had so much success with in New Orleans.
Coming out of Oregon, Nix was a polarizing prospect but one that most agreed could provide a solid floor and be an accurate passer and smart decision-maker. In many ways, he fits what Payton wants in a quarterback and will be an extension of Payton on the field.
While it’s important to not form too strong of an opinion off of one or two preseason games, it’s hard to not be encouraged by what we saw out of Nix and the offense as a whole in these first two showings.
Nix completed 15 of his 21 attempts for 125 yards and a touchdown pass, displaying many of the traits that made Sean Payton covet him in the first place.
While there were areas to clean up, most notably his being antsy in clean pockets, Nix was accurate with the football, executed the offense, and showed an ability to play off-schedule more often than we saw from him at Oregon. Nix’s ability to use different arm angles and slots to get off throws was a major positive takeaway from the game as well.
Even beyond Nix, the other two quarterbacks looked good too. As a unit, the three completed 29 passes out of 41 attempts for 279 yards and two touchdowns.
Offensively, the team showed more of a complete offensive game plan, specifically utilizing more RPOs, throws over the middle of the field, and gap running schemes. The system looked much more like what Payton ran in New Orleans as opposed to Sean Payton’s take on the ideal Russell Wilson offense.
In the second pre-season game, Nix grew off of his first performance and looked even better, completing 8 of 9 attempts for 80 yards and a touchdown. Along with the touchdown, he also led the team on a field goal drive. Beyond the numbers, Nix looked improved in areas that he struggled in the first week, most notably with his footwork. Nix more often stayed calm in the pocket and delivered a strike rather than taking off unnecessarily.
One throw in particular highlighted the type of play that leaves you incredibly encouraged about Nix’ future. On a 2nd and 10, Nix took his three-step drop and ripped a dig right when Sutton got out of his brake and delivered it right to his chest. This throw displayed his accuracy, processing, and ability to throw with anticipation in one play. Seeing Nix throw a pass over the middle of the field was a welcome change from the previous quarterback.
If the first two games are a sign of things to come, with the team getting Payton’s true scheme, and with a quarterback who can play on time and execute what is needed out of him, the Broncos are set to be much better offensively and fans should be excited about things to come.
