As the Denver Broncos enter their rebuild, there are very few building blocks for they can use as foundational elements to construct a championship-caliber team around.
Two of the few pieces they have that clear that bar are Pat Surtain II and Quinn Meinerz — two players on soon-to-expire rookie deals that have developed into elite talents among the peers at their respective positions.
This offseason, both become eligible for a contract extension for the first time, and, understandably, Broncos Country is clamoring for the team to lock these two tremendous pieces up long-term.
So, with that in mind, what might these deals look like?
Quinn Meinerz, 25 years old, UFA in 2025
This free agency period has arguably benefitted Quinn Meinerz more than any other Broncos player.
The interior offensive line market exploded, with multiple guards signing contracts worth $20 million a year, and Lloyd Cushenberry receiving a massive pay day at center. That latter piece also benefits Meinerz because Denver was going to have to choose between either keeping him or Cushenberry, and this indicates they’ve chosen to keep him.
That former element, though, shows that it will cost Payton, Paton and Co. quite a pretty penny to retain the highly talented guard.
In fact, it seems reasonable to project that, at offseason’s end, Quinn Meinerz will be the highest-paid guard in NFL history.
That might sound too rich for some, but anytime he’s received competent coaching (i.e. not Nathaniel Hackett/Butch Barry) he’s looked like one of the league’s elite young offensive linemen. Considering the fact that Robert Hunt, another very athletically talented and solid young guard, claimed $20 million annually this March, it’s hard to imagine Meinerz settling for any less.
Lance Dickerson became the highest-paid guard ever earlier this offeason, earning $84 million over the next seasons. The Philadelphia Eagles did receive a slight bargain when it came to the guarantees, as they managed to fully guarantee only $29 million, while the standard is approximately half.
Yes, the Eagles’ star on the line is more accomplished than Meinerz, but who’s highest-paid is often a reflection of ‘who signed their deal most recently,’ and not, ‘who’s the best lineman.’ With that in mind, it seems likely the Broncos give Meinerz just enough to hold the title of biggest-ever guard contract.
The guarantees are tougher to project, though it seems likely they wind up being closer to Hunt and Chris Lindstrom than Dickerson — both of whom have about half of their contracts fully guaranteed.
As for length, four years appears to be the standard with these high-end guard deals. The oft-injured Jonah Jackson is the only under-30 guard, making at least $17 million in average annual value (AAV) with a contract that isn’t four years in length.
Projected deal: Four years, $85 million ($21 million in AAV), with about $43 million fully guaranteed.
Pat Surtain II, 23 years old, UFA in 2025 or 2026
Pat Surtain’s contract situation is much more complicated than Quinn Meinerz, in part because we don’t have an incredibly recent market reset to base a projection on, and in part because of Surtain’s fifth-year option.
If the Denver Broncos were to accept Surtain’s fifth-year option, they would guarantee that he sticks around through the 2025 season, but then they won’t be able to have long-term extension talks until next offseason. On the other hand, they could forego the fifth-year option, sign him now, pacify their most talented player, and lock him up for the foreseeable future.
That latter path is atypical, but there has been talk about Denver going that route with Pat Surtain.
They might also choose to hybridize these two styles, giving Surtain a 2025 pay day that’s slightly better than what the fifth-year option would give him, while securing him long-term at a market-setting rate that would kick in following the 2025 season. This avenue is somewhat hard to see though, as the benefits would be limited for PS2.
That said, no matter which route they take, the contract should generally be the same. Between now and next offseason, there’s really only one player, AJ Terrell, with the potential to reset the cornerback market.
If Pat Surtain’s extension is delayed until 2025 and if Terrell signs a deal that resets the market, it could slightly raise the bar that the Denver Broncos have to bid against, but even then, it should only be a mild increase, considering how slowly we’ve seen cornerback contract values climb.
One certainty we have about Surtain’s deal, is that he will reset the cornerback market whenever he signs.
Jaire Alexander most recently reset that market with his contract, which is set to pay him $21 million a year for four years, with a little more than one of those years fully guaranteed at signing.
Surtain’s contract will likely have some key differences though, as Alexander’s contract structuring is slightly atypical of high-end cornerback contracts.
Alexander’s is the only one of the top-six cornerback contracts to not have his deal carry into a fifth year, and the only one of those top contracts to not have at least two years of the deal fully guaranteed.
Not only is Pat Surtain likely to receive that fifth year of the deal, but, if the Broncos attempt to lock him up early, they could potentially look to give him a sixth, especially considering how incredibly young he is. It’s also likely Surtain receives at least two of those seasons fully guaranteed.
If his deal winds up being six years, Denver could choose to hover around that same guaranteed amount — providing themselves long-term security, while still giving Surtain the most guaranteed money ever for a cornerback, limiting how much he can complain.
Though, it seems likely that Surtain has enough leverage to demand the guaranteed money stays in line with the status quo of approximately 45% of the contracts total value, which could make the Broncos committed to the deal for three years instead of just two. That might be something Surtain wants to negotiate for too, as the difference would be approximately $10 million in fully guaranteed dough.
Overall, Broncos Country should expect a five-year deal, though a six-year contract is certainly possible. They should also expect the contract to fall between $21.5 million and $23.5 million in AAV. For guarantees, the expectation should be around 45% of the deal’s total value, though Surtain is talented enough and has a spotless enough track record to demand even more.
Projected deal: Five years, $110 million ($22 million in AAV), with about $50 million fully guaranteed.
Projected deal if they wait: Five years, $115 million (23 million in AAV) with about $52.5 million fully guaranteed.
