The Denver Broncos offense is in serious need of a facelift this offseason but is Brian Thomas Jr. the answer to their prayers, or is he a toxin that will leave them disfigured and looking more mannequin than person?
Let’s take a look.
Height: 6’2 7/8″
Weight 209
Hand: 9 3/4″
Arm: 32 3/4″
40-Yard Dash: 4.33 seconds
3-Cone: N/A
Shuttle: N/A
Vertical: 38.5 inches
Broad: 10 feet, 6 inches
Positives
- Standout size and speed athlete.
- Natural hands-catcher.
- Makes catches away from his body without breaking stride. Easily transitions into becoming a ball-carrier.
- Regularly demonstrates ability to spear the ball in contested-catch situations.
- Has the ball skills and athletic body control to regularly make acrobatic snags.
- Surprising amount of wiggle given frame. Fluid mover.
- Runs with long strides that help him glide away from defenders.
- Utilizes size, speed, strength, hands and understanding of leverage well to fly down field and stack opposing cornerbacks effortlessly.
- Ready-made dangerous deep threat.
- Is a weapon both before and after the catch point.
- A+ production. (Led SEC with 17 touchdowns and finished fourth in yards and receptions, at over 17 yards per catch, in 2023. Passer rating of 148.8 when targeted).
- When he wants to, he can be an excellent blocker in the run game.
- Rapidly improving. 2023 tape is considerably cleaner than 2022. Even makes noticeable technical strides in route-running and releases from start of 2023 to end of 2023.
- Intelligence in his route-running makes up for some technical shortcomings. Loves to make corners uncomfortable by getting right on their toes before breaking on his route.
Negatives
- Could be a product of circumstance (LSU has an elite OL, and two top-six draft picks as other key components in their passing game).
- Hid agility numbers at combine and pro day, creating concerns about potential stiffness.
- Tape could be deceptive on his fluidity and wiggle, as we don’t see much of it.
- Can take a bit to gear down on certain route breaks.
- Could stand to fill out frame at next level. Slight frame will be trickier to get away with at next level.
- Struggles in press coverage against corners that can match his physical profile.
- Isn’t as dominant in contested catch scenarios as one would like given his frame.
- Limited route tree. Could be the result of utilization, or could be hiding a weakness.
- Inconsistent motor. Takes routes off when he knows the target isn’t likely coming his way. Has the odd lethargic rep in the run game.
- Fairly new to football, and that’s apparent at times on tape.
Brian Thomas Jr. Overall
It’s impossible to deny that this class has a clear top three at the wide receiver position.
But, that reality has far more to do with the exceptionally rare talents those top three possess, rather than a lack of ability after that elite crop.
No one evidences better than Brian Thomas Jr. — the No. 4 receiver in this year’s class, who would have had a strong case to have been the top receiver prospect in either the 2022 or 2023 classes.
From a physical standpoint, he is the prototypical X receiver.
He stands at nearly 6-foot-3 and 209 pounds, with arms that measure almost 33 inches, and that frame can move, with a 4.33 40-yard dash, ranking in the 99th percentile for the position, a 38.5-inch vertical leap, which falls in the 90th percentile among wide receivers, and a 10-foot-6 inch broad jump, placing him in merely the 86th percentile there.
Although there are questions about his agility — which he suspiciously chose to avoid answering during either his combine or his pro day — it’s still clear that Brian Thomas Jr. is an elite athlete for the position.
Even if his agility testing wound up being as historically stiff as D.K. Metcalf, who managed to be even less agile than rookie Tom Brady, Thomas’ combine showing would have been tremendously impressive, and he looks more fluid than Metcalf did, on their respective college film reels.
This imposing physical profile translates into him being damaging after the catch point.
Plus, Thomas Jr. isn’t just some raw athlete that needs to learn every aspect of the position.
While he is newer to the position and does need refinement, he already showcases shades of an impressive football IQ and understanding of how to play receiver.
His ball skills are very natural. He’s easily able to high-point a jump ball and pluck it out of the air, and with improved strength, Thomas should become even more deadly in that aspect of the game. He tracks deep passes without breaking a sweat and then snags them without breaking stride.
That paired with his astounding physical tools make him an easy-to-project deep threat.
The LSU product’s route-running also showcases certain elements of polish. He knows how to make cornerbacks uncomfortable, and will frequently get right up on their toes before declaring his route. Plus, he clearly knows how to stack opposing corners, adding to his immediate viability as a vertical threat. That said, he still needs to grow in this aspect of his game.
Finally, he’s a legitimate factor in the run game as a blocker.
Adding to the optimism with his projection is the fact he’s shown notable progress in this area from the 2022 season to 2023, and from the start of the 2023 season to now.
As for the negatives, although Brian Thomas Jr. is an impactful run-blocker and skilled contested-catch player, he’s not as overwhelming in this setting as one would hope given his stature. Filling out his frame will hopefully go a long way toward helping there, as it should make it harder for defenders to affect him at the catch point and more imposing as a blocker.
The same goes for his ability to win before the catch point. Improved route-running and developing his releases will be big there, but adding more strength will be just as crucial so that he isn’t picked on by press-adept corners.
He also takes plays off on tape. Now, there appears to be some thought behind it — only becoming lackadaisical when on the backside of a passing concept or when the run is directed away from him — and he also has some awesome effort plays (like the blocking clip above), but that still won’t fly at the next level.
Ultimately, these warts feel pretty forgivable, given his youth and his inexperience in the game.
His body should fill out, and he should only become craftier with more time dedicated to honing his skills as a wide receiver. If you’re willing to live with those imperfections in the short term, the payoff could be tremendous. He already boasts the god-given traits and natural skills that are much harder to coach, boasting the floor of a devastating explosive threat, and appears coachable enough to round out the finer details.
For the Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos need help at wide receiver.
Reviewing the roster, the depth of the room is strong but the top of the room leaves a lot to be desired. Plus, Courtland Sutton only has two years left on his deal, which is about the same amount of time as he has already spent on the trade block.
Brian Thomas Jr. has the athletic talents to be Denver’s first true No. 1 receiver since Demaryius Thomas was traded, but his ideal role might be a little redundant with Courtland Sutton, and maybe even Marvin Mims Jr.
Sutton and Mims are already best used as vertical threats, and the same is true of Thomas Jr.
He projects to be a better red-zone threat than Mims and a better ball carrier than Sutton, but with both on the roster, he wouldn’t fill a major void in the passing game.
That changes though if the Broncos were to trade Sutton, which would make financial sense and get Denver more mid-round capital to fuel their rebuild.
The other concern with the Denver Broncos targeting Thomas would be the draft slot.
While the 12th pick does feel a little rich for Thomas, that has more to do with the remarkable top-end talent of the class than it does him as a prospect. Most years, he would be a no-brainer first-round pick.
This is a first-round pick that would warrant celebration in the Mile High City.
