This offseason, Broncos Country demands that the Denver Broncos surround second-year quarterback Bo Nix with more explosive and dynamic weapons, and one name that has already garnered attention from the mob is San Francisco 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel.
Drafted in 2019, Samuel is 29 years old and four years removed from a first-team All-Pro season, but is also likely coming off the worst year of his career, with the only competition being the injury-riddled 2020 and 2022 campaigns.
Understandably, one of the big questions looming over Samuel’s career is, ‘What does he have left in the tank?’
Samuel’s disappointing 2024 saw him end the season with only 670 receiving yards, 136 rushing yards, and four total touchdowns.
That said, his performance was more impressive than those baseline stats convey. 421 of those receiving yards came after the catch, and his talent as a ball-carrier is the area of his game that is still elite. Moreover, even in a down year, he ranked fifth among all receivers in yards after the catch over expectation (YACOE) with 120, trailing only Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and Puka Nacua, and eighth in YACOE per target.
Since entering the NFL, how dangerous Samuel is with the ball in his hands has been the defining trait of his career, and both the numbers and tape illustrate how it didn’t take that big of a hit last season.
His ability after the catch and in the open field resulted in 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan carving out a unique role in his offense with Samuel taking a handful of snaps out of the backfield starting in 2021, where he took 116 snaps in that alignment.
This past season he took 60 snaps out of the backfield for only 161 scrimmage yards (136 rushing, 25 receiving) on 45 touches, but still flashed some of the open field traits on tape that propelled his All-Pro campaign in 2022.
How Would Deebo Samuel Fit in Denver?
Broncos Head Coach Sean Payton has often expressed the need for a “joker” in this offense, most recently during the media week ahead of Super Bowl LIX. His characterization of that role – someone who can play in multiple alignments and show elite receiving ability – describes Deebo Samuel, when we have seen him at his best.
Denver’s passing attack desperately needed somebody who could play in space and force missed tackles in the quick passing game and that is Samuel’s biggest strength to date.
The role Samuel played in San Francisco is also one we saw Sean Payton employ this past season with Marvin Mims. While that creates some concerns with the overlap in skillset, Samuel taking over that role also brings forth some valuable positives.
While Mims flashed out of the backfield over the second half of the season, an extended use of those formations could present some issues in multiplicity and tendencies. Mims was not used between the tackles and only had one true rushing attempt that wasn’t an end-around, limiting the variation of the run looks. He also didn’t see any true receiving targets out of the backfield that weren’t screens.
Samuel has excelled in a more varied version of that role during his time with San Francisco, and that variation should give the deadly package a longer shelf life.
Furthermore, forcing Mims to get more exposure in traditional receiver alignments would go a long way toward further developing his game.
Can Denver Afford Deebo Samuel?
Beyond whether or not the Denver Broncos should trade for Deebo Samuel, the question of how they would even coordinate such a trade or signing is a hurdle the front office will have to overcome.
Now, in terms of salary, Samuel shouldn’t be overly expensive. He has just $16.9 million remaining on the last year of his deal, which is quite reasonable given the current market. Unfortunately, San Francisco’s complex and fairly messy cap table will be a legitimate obstacle.
For starters, cutting or trading him this offseason before June 1st would incur a $31.6 million dead cap hit for the 49ers, instead of the $15.7 million price tag for keeping him. Plus, with a Brock Purdy extension and Trent Williams pay bump looming this offseason, it will be painful for them to take on that much debt.
The 49ers can turn it into an advantageous, cap-space-creating move with a post-June 1st move. Unfortunately for them, the June trade market will yield a much lesser return, which is especially concerning, considering how little he’s already expected to garner in a trade. Plus, holding onto Samuel all offseason would limit the Niners’ team-building options, as his cap hit would eat into their budget.
That could leave a post-June 1st cut designation as the most appealing option for the 49ers. They are likely only looking at a Day 3 pick in return for Samuel, which Shanahan and Co. might not value as much as the financial flexibility they’d gain from cutting Samuel.
While that solves the problem of having to give up a draft pick, it creates the problem of having to bid against other teams on the open market, and the problem of Samuel’s cap hit potentially rising above his current $16.9 million price tag.
If San Francisco decides to wait out a trade, Samuel will be a very appealing backup plan for the Denver Broncos if they can’t upgrade their wide receiver group through other means. That said, they shouldn’t bank on trading for Samuel as their Plan A, as doing so could result in them being left empty-handed or swindled by a savvy front office who recognizes their desperation.
If San Francisco decides to cut bait, the Broncos should get involved in the bidding war for Samuel, but if the price climbs above $18 million, or they’re forced to guarantee money past the first two seasons, Denver would be wise to bow out.
Verdict
While Deebo Samuel has not had the elite production of his 2022 season, he could still ultimately be a positive acquisition and difference-maker in the passing game. His presence could give Denver another outside receiver across Courtland Sutton, in the condensed formations that Sean Payton majors in, while also being a proven inside receiver in more traditional spread formations. He also could help flesh out one of the more potent elements of the offense and potentially further Mims’ development.
The biggest negative to Samuel’s game throughout his career has been his limited route tree when lined up outside, which could present issues in more of a pure drop-back-oriented passing offense – as it just did in 2024.
Samuel’s style of play is more suited to an inside alignment, targeting the short and intermediate portions of the field, with his outside targets mostly being compiled of condensed tight formations working the deep part of the field off of play-action in the void that the affected linebackers leave on the field.
Ultimately, the Broncos should look to add Samuel to the fold, but they must ensure it’s at the price and in the right role.
