The Denver Broncos’ struggles at quarterback since the departure of Peyton Manning following the 2015 season have been well documented, but Bo Nix has a chance to make those hardships a thing of the past.
For the past eight years, Broncos Country has been trapped on the dreaded quarterback carousel. From Paxton Lynch to Drew Lock to Russell Wilson, Broncos fans have repeatedly gotten their hopes up only to be brutally disappointed.
So when Denver selected Oregon QB Bo Nix 12th overall, many fans had an understandably wary response.
But after an excellent training camp and preseason, Broncos Country seems to echo the words of Michael Scott: “No question about it, I am ready to get hurt again.”
However, the regular season is a different beast. We could spend the next few thousand words on preseason stars who never amounted to anything once the games actually counted.
So, what does Bo Nix need to do to have a “successful” rookie season?
To answer this, we need to dive into the intriguing history of rookie quarterback seasons.
Background and Methodology
Since 2000 there have been 280 quarterbacks drafted into the league.
In this article, we are only going to be looking at these quarterbacks, from between 2000 and 2021, who started at least five games in their rookie season. That leaves us 65 to inspect more closely.
Before we go any further though, there’s an important disclaimer: not every quarterback will have a Justin Herbert-like rookie year.
NFL fans have been absolutely spoiled with incredible rookie seasons in recent NFL history. Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and CJ Stroud have all lit the league on fire out of the gate.
But the truth is they are the exception to the rule. Not the norm.
To learn more about how to look at rookie seasons we need to dive into how each statistical category correlates to a rookie quarterback’s long-term success.
Throughout this article we are going to look at per-game stats primarily to help standardize the data further.
We are going to look at four main categories that are a massive predictor of a rookie quarterback’s success and then project what Bo Nix’s rookie season will look like.
The categories are:
- Completion Percentage
- Yards Per Game
- Touchdown Percentage
- Interception Percentage
Then we are going to look at what improvement we should expect from Bo Nix in year two and finally, when is it ok to hit the panic button.
First, let’s look at some of the best predictors for a quarterback’s success.
Bo Nix Statistical Predictor No. 1: Completion Percentage
Completion percentage is the single biggest determining factor for a quarterback’s long-term success.
70% of quarterbacks who have had a completion percentage of 60% or more in their rookie season become Pro Bowl-level quarterbacks compared to just 41% among quarterbacks who fail to reach the 60% threshold.
Of course, in every one of these categories, there are outliers on both sides of the spectrum.
Josh Allen is the poster child for overcoming a disastrous first season. Since 2000 no quarterback has improved on their rookie completion percentage more than Allen who managed to go from being a 52% passer to a 69% passer in just 3 seasons. That’s incredible growth.
On the other side of the coin is Mac Jones who posted a 68% completion percentage in his rookie campaign only to regress significantly in each of his following two seasons before being traded away this offseason.
Despite these outliers, completion percentage is the least likely stat to have significant improvement throughout a career with the average career improvement on rookie completion percentage sitting at just +2%.
Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Ben Roethlisberger, RG3, and Joe Burrow were some of the best at it as they all finished with a 65% or greater rookie completion percentage.
As a 77% passer in his last season with Oregon, Bo Nix should be very successful in this category. Sean Payton’s scheme will help too, utilizing the quick passing game that Nix was so masterful at in college.
Considering that much of his upside coming out of college is related to his accuracy and efficiency, the expectation for Nix’s completion percentage should be close to 66% with the panic line being anything below 60%.
A sub-60% rookie season would be massively concerning for a guy lauded for his accuracy, timing, and offensive mastery.
Bo Nix Statistical Predictor No. 2: Interception Percentage
The next most impactful stat for a rookie quarterback is interception percentage (INT%).
Peyton Manning’s legendary 1998 league-leading 28-interception rookie season has, at times, fueled the misnomer that interceptions are an overblown predictor for a quarterback’s career.
Let’s not kid ourselves, most people aren’t Peyton Manning.
Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen all defied the odds and have made excellent careers out of mistake-prone rookie campaigns, but these cases are once again exceptions to the rule.
Why use interception percentage over interceptions per game or total interceptions? Because not all stat lines are equal. Games played and the number of attempts wildly fluctuate between players.
Interception percentage is the simplest and most effective way to compare interception numbers accurately.
The magic number here is 3%. Quarterbacks who posted a 3 or less INT% in their rookie season became Pro Bowlers 67% of the time while only 37% of quarterbacks with a greater than 3 INT% became Pro Bowlers.
For perspective, in an average rookie season, a quarterback who starts all 17 games will throw about 500 passes. A 3% interception rate translates to about 15 interceptions or 0.88 per game.
Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Dak Prescott all excelled in this category.
Once again Bo Nix excelled at ball protection in college, but it remains to be seen how it will translate against NFL defenses.
Anything around 3% would be a successful season for Bo Nix. In actual interceptions that would likely come out somewhere around 10 to 15 interceptions this season.
Bo Nix Statistical Predictor No. 3: Touchdown Percentage
Touchdown percentage (TD%) is just as important as INT% when it comes to judging a quarterback’s rookie season.
The numbers are shockingly similar to INT% with 67% of quarterbacks with a 3.4% or greater TD% becoming Pro Bowlers while only 37% of quarterbacks with a TD% south of 3.4% became Pro Bowlers.
The contrast becomes even starker when you look at quarterbacks with a rookie TD% of 5% or greater. Seven of the nine quarterbacks to do it became Pro Bowlers with the outliers being Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota, both of whom at least showed flashes of solid NFL quarterbacking, even if they weren’t ultimately long-term solutions for their team.
Adjusted for a standard rookie season a 3.4 TD% comes out to about 17 TDs.
That’s where Bo Nix is going to want to end up. Anything under 2.5% starts to be a little concerning, especially if coupled with a negative TD-to-INT ratio.
Bo Nix Statistical Predictor No. 4: Yards Per Game
The final category is yards per game.
It would take 257 yards per game to break the rookie passing record but a successful season in this category takes a lot less than that.
It turns out 200 yards per game is the bar to hit for a rookie quarterback. 63% of quarterbacks who hit that mark became Pro Bowlers while only 37% who failed to hit 200 yards per game became Pro Bowlers.
Andrew Luck, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Cam Newton all had elite yardage production in their rookie season.
For Bo Nix, the goal is around 3,400 yards, given a fully healthy season. That said, anything less than the 3,000-yard mark would constitute a statistical failure.
Statistical Predictor Takeaways
Now, all that said, it’s important to remember that these stats are averages and it’s incredibly hard to pass all of these tests.
Since 2000 only 13 quarterbacks have hit all four of these marks as rookies: Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Dak Prescott, Mac Jones, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan, and CJ Stroud, and Broncos Country likely isn’t pining for a Mayfield or Jones-type quarterback.
So, even if Bo Nix doesn’t become the 14th quarterback to do it, there’s no need to panic. Many quarterbacks have overcome subpar rookie seasons to produce good careers.
He’s not the perfect quarterback. His rookie season will have ups and downs but the jump (or lack thereof) from year one to year two is far more important than anything he can do this season.
Which brings us to another question: What is the typical year-two improvement for quarterbacks?
The Value of Year 2 Growth for Bo Nix
Looking at the numbers, quarterbacks who eventually reach the Pro Bowl showed significant year-two improvement across all four categories.
The average completion percentage improved from 59% to 62% among Pro Bowl quarterbacks compared to no improvement (57%) from non-Pro Bowl quarterbacks
Non-Pro Bowl quarterbacks regressed in yards per game dropping from 199 yards per game to just 174 yards per game.
Pro Bowl quarterbacks showed slight improvement going from 217 yards per game to 226 yards per game.
They also showed significant growth in TD% compared to non-Pro Bowl quarterbacks (+1.7% for Pro Bowl QBs).
What do we learn from these numbers?
Across the board, successful quarterbacks show noted growth in year two. So if he is “the guy” look for Bo Nix to show growth in completion percentage, yards per game, and TD% in year two.
Interestingly both groups showed little to no improvement in INT%, once again lending credence to the idea that a massive reduction in interceptions after your rookie year is unlikely for most players.
Final Thoughts and Predictions
In the end, stats can only take you so far in predicting how a player will do. If you want to really understand what Nix does well and what he lacks this season, watch all the film breakdowns you can get your hands on.
Analysts like Let’s Talk Broncos’ own Frankie Abbott (@frankiesfilm) and Robert Davis (@Robby_NFL) do a fantastic job of breaking down what you should know from game tape.
Stats are a great starting point but it’s the snap-to-snap and game-to-game progression that will make or break Bo Nix’s career.
There are a lot of questions looming as we enter the regular season. What will Bo be? Will he lead this team out of the hellscape of the QB carousel or will he be just another name to add to the list?
But right now none of that matters. There is no stopping the Bo train.
So this season kick back, have fun, and Bo-lieve. It’s better that way.
