The Denver Broncos enter Week 6 riding a three-game win streak with a chance to notch a potentially tremendous win in the AFC wildcard race, as Jim Harbaugh and the 2-2 Los Angeles Chargers come to town.
What do we have to see from the Broncos in order for them to earn the much-needed divisional victory?
1. The Denver Broncos Must Keep the Run Game Rolling
The Denver Broncos passing game is going to be inconsistent throughout the 2024 season. That is the nature of a rookie quarterback, even a promising one.
This unfortunate reality seemed like a major hurdle just a few short weeks ago, as the Broncos’ designed running game ranked among the dregs of the league, but these past two weeks have shown a lot of promise for the squad.
Javonte Williams is back to breaking tackles at an elite rate, Jaleel McLaughlin has become efficient and his ability to materialize touchdowns shouldn’t be overlooked, and Denver rank eighth in rush EPA/play (.088) and fifth in rushing success rate (53.1%).
Javonte Williams and Co. are about to face their toughest test of the season though, with the Los Angeles Chargers defense coming to town.
The Bolts’ defense ranks first in rushing EPA/play allowed (-.343) and second in rushing success rate allowed (29.3%), while the New York Jets and Las Vegas Raiders defenses both rank in the bottom half of the league in those metrics.
Not only is Los Angeles seemingly up to the challenge of stopping the Denver ground attack, but the Broncos will also be undermanned, with Mike McGlinchey, Alex Palczewski and Luke Wattenberg all on the bench.
If they can’t establish a run game against the stout Chargers defense, it could create a ripple effect that sinks the offense. L.A. is going to throw a lot of defensive complexity at Bo Nix, much like the Seattle Seahawks did, and that is going to be mentally taxing. If he’s forced to drop back 40-plus times, like he was in Week 1, it’s unlikely the results are pretty, especially considering the fact that a lack of run game will lead to a lot of 3rd-and-long looks that will enable defensive coordinator Jeese Minter to tee off on the rookie.
2. Bo Nix Has To Perform Better Against This Mike Macdonald Disciple
Week 1 was incredibly rough for Bo Nix, but, of course it was.
It’s the first true NFL game of his career, he’s playing an elite defensive play caller with a hyper-complex scheme, and he’s traveling into the league’s most hostile road environment.
That said, now, he’s at home, has five games of NFL experience under his belt, and he’s going against the protégé, as opposed to the master — Mike Macdonald. Now, that doesn’t mean that Nix should look like an All-Pro the second time around, but there should certainly be notable signs of improvement.
Nix’s last five halves that weren’t played in hurricane conditions have produced a combined EPA/play of .117, which would rank 15th among NFL quarterbacks during that span. However, as discussed with the Broncos’ rushing attack, the Los Angeles Chargers are primed to present a much tougher test to the Denver Broncos than Denver has seen these past two weeks.
Although Los Angeles isn’t quite as elite against the pass as they are the run, they still rank fourth in EPA/dropback allowed and eighth in dropback success rate allowed. They’ve also had a whole week to prepare for a Nix-led passing attack that, understandably, isn’t all that advanced or complex at this point in the young quarterback’s career.
Plus, the offensive line injuries will be just as meaningful here as they are to the rushing attack.
If Nix regresses in this matchup, the Denver Broncos will almost certainly drop the game and the hype train will lose steam with a tough road matchup against the New Orleans Saints looming. If Nix can maintain the level of play we’ve seen from him, for the most part, since Week 3, or even build upon it, that hype train will get supercharged.
3. Vance Joseph’s Defensive Gameplan Must Rise To Meet a New Challenge
The linchpin to the Denver Broncos’ 3-2 start has been the tremendous performance from Vance Joseph’s defense. That so-far elite unit will face a new breed of challenge though on Sunday against the Los Angeles Chargers though.
For starters, it’s much harder to affect Justin Herbert with pressure — the foundation this defense has thrived on.
Herbert has been sacked just six times this season, and never more than twice in any single game, in spite of Herbert facing a top-10 pressure rate, as he’s getting pressured on 36% of dropbacks. Herbert is also a much better quarterback than almost anyone the Broncos have played up until this point, and will have more answers to mitigate the pressure looks as a result.
The other wrinkle this Los Angeles offers is the insistence on running the ball. From the moment Jim Harbaugh was hired, he made it clear that he wanted to turn the Chargers into a physical, ground-and-pound operation, and he’s been successful in realizing that vision so far.
Only the Green Bay Packers are running the ball more frequently in neutral game situations, and their number is inflated by having to go so run-heavy while Malik Willis filled in for Jordan Love. In fact, the only game situation where the Bolts aren’t below the expected passing rate is on 2nd-and-long.
If Denver can defend the run like they did in their Week 4 win over the New York Jets, then that desire to hammer the football on the ground shouldn’t present much of a problem. However, in Weeks 1, 3 and 5 the Broncos had quarters where they were gashed on the ground in concerning fashion.
This is especially true following Week 5, where the Broncos struggled to stop the run against a historically bad Las Vegas Raiders rushing attack. If Denver’s defense is a sive, like it was last week, against Los Angeles, they could get run out of the building.
