Life works in mysterious ways. Just when hopes and ambitions seem almost certainly within reach – like the possibility of sweeping the Kansas City Chiefs for the first time since 2014 – reality can kick in to deliver a crushing blow, much like the Denver Broncos’ blocked field goal as time expired vs the Chiefs.
But the Broncos must rise from the ashes.
Okay, that’s enough poetry for today.
Week 10 was a true heart-breaker for everyone in Broncos Country, as this was arguably one of the biggest games for the franchise in over nine years. More importantly, they actually showed up for this high-stakes game, as they played the undefeated Super Bowl champions so well that it took the football gods smiting them in the game’s final moments for the Broncos to not exit Arrowhead Stadium victorious.
As frustrating as it was, what lies ahead is extremely exciting.
It can be assumed that every player and coach in the building is extraordinarily frustrated. After all, they deserved to win that game and were somewhat cheated out of a victory between the field goal and the horrific officiating.
Now, they have a perfect opportunity this week to blow off some steam against the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off an upset loss against the New Orleans Saints. The Broncos match up well against the Falcons – a good football team, but one that suffers from fatal flaws on both sides of the ball.
With that in mind, here is what we need to see from the Denver Broncos in Week 11.
Bring the Heat on Kirk Cousins
Despite many missed holding calls from the officials the Denver Broncos’ front seven did an excellent job pursuing Mahomes, who finished the game with four sacks and 20 pressures. They have been the best defensive unit in all of football at pressuring quarterbacks, generating 213 of them this season.
Most combined pressures after Week 10 💪 pic.twitter.com/hPKFDBdCd4
— PFF (@PFF) November 12, 2024
They will need to bring that same intensity this upcoming week, with a quality opponent coming to town. Thankfully, this target should be much easier to bring down.
Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins deserves his flowers, as he has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in football since 2015, and will surely win his fair share of reps on Sunday. However, while some may argue that he is entitled to his own statue somewhere, it’s hard to deny that he plays like one in the pocket.
At 36 and coming off an Achilles injury, Cousins lacks the athleticism to be ultra-creative in the pocket and extend plays. This has been a problem in Cousins’s career, as several of his infamous “prime time meltdowns” directly resulted from him being pressured too much by the opposing defense. It hasn’t gotten any easier for Cousins over time, as he is the fifth-most sacked quarterback since 2019.
Furthermore, the Falcons offensive line has been just average at pass blocking this season, ranking 18th in ESPN’s composite rankings. Starting center Drew Dalman is also on injured reserve with an ankle injury, providing Zach Allen and the Broncos’ interior rushers with a golden opportunity to wreak havoc. Right tackle Kaleb McGary has struggled this season as well, opening the door for a potential standout game from newly re-signed edge rusher Jonathon Cooper.
Pass protection composite ratings
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) November 13, 2024
No, I don't know why ESPN hates GB/TB/ARI/IND/CAR pic.twitter.com/7vmwMmAgve
However, despite the overwhelming evidence that Cousins is a statue, he still has had several seasons with a low pressure-to-sack rate, meaning that he is one of the best at preventing pressures from turning into largely negative plays.
How bad has Caleb Williams been?
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 15, 2024
In terms of accuracy and sack avoidance, it's the worst QB season in recent memory. Worse than any season from Zach Wilson, Bryce Young, or Justin Fields, as impossible as that may seem
cc: @FantasyPtsData / @fball_insights pic.twitter.com/ulS1DDvn6z
Therefore, it will be crucial for defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to devise creative ways to disrupt Cousins’ flow. This can include blitzes up the middle from the inside linebackers and sending Ja’Quan McMillian or PJ Locke a few times, who have both been excellent this year as extra blitzers.
If the Broncos can consistently unleash chaos on Cousins, the Falcons’ offense will have to rely on Bijan Robinson and the running game to carry the load, who are surprisingly ranked just 24th in EPA/rush as a unit.
An Explosive Game from the Denver Broncos Offense
The vibes surrounding Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos offense could not be more immaculate at the moment. Not only are they coming off a solid performance against an elite Chiefs defense, but Nix has easily been one of the two best rookie quarterbacks this season.
As mentioned in our very own Zach Segars’ stock up/stock down article, Nix is fifth in the NFL in EPA+CPOE Composite score on third downs, fifth in success rate, eighth in EPA/dropback, and first in CPOE on third downs over the past month. He not only went toe-to-toe with Mahomes but has looked like he’s belonged for several weeks in a row.
The Broncos must keep the momentum going and produce another statement game from the offense. Much like the pass rush with Cousins, this week is the perfect opportunity to do so.
It would be an understatement to say that the Falcons are struggling on defense, as they are ranked in the league’s bottom half in almost every defensive stat and metric. Per FoxSports, they are 24th in passing yards per game, 20th in rushing yards per game, 20th in scoring defense, 28th in third down success rate, and last in sacks – with just nine on the year.
Starting to think Bo Nix and the #Broncos offense are going to be in for a big day on Sunday vs the #Falcons. Atlanta is 32nd in sacks (9) and 27th in pressures (66). Their defense is 26th in passing yards and 27th in passing TDs allowed. It’s also the 2nd most penalized defense…
— Ryan Edwards (@redwardsradio) November 13, 2024
Despite boasting a solid secondary consisting of Jessie Bates and former Broncos star Justin Simmons, the Falcons undoubtedly have the worst pass rush in the league. This should be music to Bo Nix’s ears, who is already one of the best quarterbacks in the entire league at avoiding sacks/pressures.
Furthermore, this will also be a significant opportunity for rookie running back Audric Estime, who is expected to get more snaps after a great performance against a high-end Chiefs run defense. The Falcons’ defense is ranked just 25th in EPA/rush, and 28th in run-stop win rate, meaning that he should generate even more total yardage. If he continues to impress, he will essentially take the job from Javonte Williams, as he has shown much better efficiency and vision as a runner.
Overall, it sounds like Nix will have all day to throw and Estime should be able to generate big runs. Much like the defense, this is a matchup where the Broncos’ offense can blow off some steam and take advantage of the Falcons’ defensive flaws. This week, an explosive game from the offense with at least three or more touchdowns should be mandatory.
Turn the Page from Last Week
Without a doubt, last week was a devastating way to lose a football game.
Even worse, this is now their second loss in a row. It would be very easy for a young team like the Broncos to start doubting themselves, as they have not been able to put away the elite opponents just yet. This may very well be the point in the season where everything starts falling apart.
Apologies for even bringing that possibility up, but it has happened at such a frequent rate with past Broncos teams that it would be malpractice not to address it.
However, the 2024 Broncos have been… different. The future is extraordinarily bright, as they have overcome many obstacles that would have caused Broncos squads of the past decade to fall two steps backward. Their season isn’t suddenly over because of two losses against two of the best teams in football.
Sean Payton must test his culture yet again and show that they are capable of turning the page this week. After all, beating the Chiefs was not their Super Bowl, and they are still on pace to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015.
Regardless of the critical areas where the Falcons could be exploited, they are still a good football team that will likely make the playoffs in the NFC. The Broncos need to play them hard and avoid any sort of meltdowns, which, again, were prone to happening to past teams.
However, Payton has a dominant 21-9 career record against the Falcons. He is very familiar with that franchise and will come up with a good game plan to beat them.
If the Denver Broncos can leave Sunday with a convincing win against a playoff-caliber team, then the sky is truly the limit for this young team and their confidence level.
