With the draft less than two weeks away, the Denver Broncos will enter the most pivotal stretch of their off-season with Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci being the only quarterbacks on the roster.
That is less than ideal.
When asked about the position, head coach Sean Payton said that Stidham is “definitely going to compete” to be the team’s starting quarterback, and with no starter-level free agents available it is safe to assume that the Broncos are likely to select a passer in this draft.
With the selection of any quarterback comes the question of “when will they play”?
It is a matter of preference and each case is individual, but for the Broncos there are more reasons than not to sit the rookie and start Jarrett Stidham come September.
The Denver Broncos’ Roster Isn’t Ready To Compete In 2024
Throughout this off-season, the Broncos have felt the impact of the Russell Wilson cap hit through the overall lack of salary cap flexibility that the team now has.
This led to the team moving on from multiple key veterans such as Jerry Jeudy and Justin Simmons while not being able to re-sign players such as Lloyd Cushenberry III, and signing stopgap solutions in their stead.
The roster has gotten worse than it was at 8-9 last year while not making any major upgrades, and that 8-9 record was earned largely off the back of a 5-0 stretch, during which Denver won the turnover battle by 16.
As a result, whichever quarterback the team wants to draft would be entering a situation without many strengths.
The pass rush was one of the worst units in the league last year and has not added any major contributors, while the second level lost its best linebacker in Josey Jewell, and the secondary was already inexperienced and questionable before releasing the veteran of the unit in Justin Simmons.
On the offensive side of the ball, the offensive line was a strength last year but is likely going from an above-average center to a second-year, Day 3 selection. At pass catcher, the unit was okay but unspectacular, and the only change made was going from Jerry Jeudy to Josh Reynolds.
According to DraftKing’s betting odds, the Broncos are currently projected at 5.5 wins, tied for the third-lowest total in the NFL. Mike Klay’s unit grades have the Broncos as the 30th ranked team in the NFL.
It’s hard to find anybody who projects the Denver Broncos to be a good team in 2024.
As a result, this team’s rookie quarterback will likely enter a situation where they have to score a lot of points to keep up with the other team, while not having a strong running game to lean on, mediocre weapons, and questionable help from the center position.
Too often in the NFL, we see a young quarterback enter a poor situation, and develop bad habits as a result of trying to compensate for the lack of talent around them.
For a Broncos team that is unlikely to be competing for much anyway, the team would be better off letting their young quarterback sit and develop in what will be a lost season anyway, as protecting that quarterback is ultimately more important.
Sean Payton’s Offense Could Be Difficult To Master
The other potential issue with a rookie playing right away for the Denver Broncos is that Sean Payton’s offense is not easily learned.
Multiple reporters and former players of Payton have said that his offense, while effective, is extremely complicated and one that players struggle with early on.
The fact that Sean Payton has never intentionally started a rookie underlines this notion. The one time he has started a rookie was in 2021, when multiple of his quarterbacks were either injured or out with COVID-19, and he was forced to rely on his fourth option.
To take it a step further, during his tenure with Drew Brees, Payton often chose to have a veteran behind him, like Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston or Luke McCown.
Considering this, there’s a good chance the Broncos would be rushing their rookies development by starting him Week 1. Asking him to start without enough mastery of the playbook would be throwing him into the deep end of the pool to see if he sinks or swims.
Combine that with the fact that the player is likely going to be in a lot of obvious passing situations, making the defense harder to dissect, and it becomes unappealing to want to put that on the hopeful savior of the Denver Broncos.
Compare that to the alternative option — allowing whoever the team drafts to sit and develop a better understanding of the playbook, so that when the player does eventually play, they will feel more comfortable in the offense — and it’s clear which is better
If you wait and sit them the entire first year, you can enter the off-season with them having studied the playbook for an entire year, over $80 million in cap space for free agency, and likely a top-five selection if the team doesn’t trade the first.
Patience would lead them being rewarded with a quarterback who doesn’t have the mental battle scars of having to carry a talent-poor roster in a complicated system his rookie season, and allow that quarterback’s first snaps in an environment more conducive to their success.
Once the Denver Broncos draft that quarterback, the franchise’s future becomes all about fostering that player’s success.
