Justin Fields has been tied to George Paton and the Denver Broncos ever since the general manager opted to select Patrick Surtain II over Fields in the 2021 NFL Draft — a heavily contested decision at the time, but one that’s been proven right in the long run.
Now, the story has a chance to come full circle.
The Denver Broncos are one of the few organizations left at the dance without a partner, while Fields is also looking for someone to save him from going ‘stag.’
Now, yes, Denver could dance with the one who brought them here, but that person is, well, Jarrett Stidham.
So, should the Broncos look to rekindle ‘what could have been?’
Yes, and here’s why.
The Fit With Sean Payton
This is going to be the most common talking point when discussing why the Broncos shouldn’t swing a deal for Fields.
It’s a silly talking point.
That’s not to say that the fit is perfect by any means. There certainly are some awkward aspects, particularly when it comes to reading the middle of the field, operating quick game, and delivering passes on time.
Those might all sound familiar, as they’re the same issues that hamstrung Russell Wilson’s time in Denver.
That said, Fields has a lot of abilities that Wilson doesn’t anymore — particularly his mobility — that can help mitigate those problems.
It would also be foolish to forget the offensive play caller we’re discussing here. Despite the narratives Wilson supporters have clung to in their desperate efforts to cope with the disappointment, Payton has always been an innovative and creative head coach that is willing to think outside the box.
You know that head coach who decided to sign a 27-year old rookie quarterback (Taysom Hill) that had just been cut from Green Bay’s practice squad, ask that quarterback to switch to tight end and gunner, then eventually switch him back to quarterback, and then start him for several games, all while leaning hard on the quarterback run game?
Yeah, that guy is Denver’s head coach.
If the 27-year-old rookie quarterback/tight end/special-teamer hybrid didn’t stump Payton, it’s hard to imagine a much more capable version stumping him.
Cost of Acquisition
The Broncos have sat out the first couple waves of the quarterback free agent market, and the pickings are beginning to look pretty slim.
Of the quarterbacks still available, very few are likely to be cheaper to acquire than Fields.
In terms of salary, Fields’ post-trade cap hit of $3.2 million for whichever team acquires him is peanuts. He’d be a low-paid backup, with a salary that slots him just ahead of Case Keenum and Mason Rudolph’s average annual hits.
Even the financially cheap first-round rookie would take up more cap than Fields, as the 12th overall pick this year is set to make $4.5 million on average.
Financially, the only options that would be cheaper are Jimmy Garoppolo or a mid-round rookie.
When a mid-round quarterback selection eventually develops into a long-term quality backup, that’s considered a success. Denver is likely going to ask whatever quarterback they add to start games for them this year. ‘Year 1 starter’ is quite literally the opposite of developmental backup, so it’s unlikely the Broncos find their relief there.
Yes, Spencer Rattler is a fun prospect with some very real upside. But, even then, Fields is far more talented, arguably possesses far more upside, and, inarguably, has already proven far more in the NFL than Rattler. There’s a very real chance Rattler or *insert 2024 QB draft prospect of your own personal choosing* are entirely overwhelmed by the NFL and ultimately unplayable, even as a backup. That happening to mid-round picks is far from uncommon.
You know for a fact that isn’t happening with Fields.
As for Jimmy Garoppolo, his vet-minimum contract makes him incredibly cheap. He’s also not great, but he is one of the 40-or-so best quarterbacks on the planet and can be a passable stopgap. But it’s hard to conjure up a less inspiring quarterback answer, even if it’s just a short-term one.
So, the financially cheaper options ain’t it. But, to be fair, those first-round options are right in the same ballpark financially, making them deserving of consideration.
The major problem with the four quarterbacks worthy of first-round pick is that it seems all of them are destined to be selected in the top 10. Even if, by some miracle, J.J. McCarthy slides out of the top 10, the QB-needy Vikings are lying in wait at Pick 11.
That means the Denver Broncos will have to trade up if they want to secure one of those options, and doing so will force a talent-poor team to forfeit several premium draft picks — which are doubling as their best avenue towards rebuilding the roster and adding talent to it.
With that in mind, the cost of trading up is very steep and even more expensive than it would initially look on paper. Meanwhile, the quarterback market has dried up so quickly that it seems Chicago would be lucky to receive even a single fifth-round pick for Fields.
Missing out on those rookies that could be long-term answers would sting, but the good news is, those four first-round-caliber quarterbacks are not the only quarterbacks available with the talent and the upside to become a long-term starter.
Justin Fields also possesses that upside.
Justin Fields’ Level of Talent
If we’re purely talking about physical talent, Justin Fields is a rare marvel at the quarterback position.
He can run by you like Lamar Jackson, he can run through you like Jalen Hurts, he can throw it over your head like Josh Allen, and he can fit the ball into a mailbox like Patrick Mahomes. His skill set is truly remarkable. Outside of Caleb Williams, there isn’t a quarterback in this class who can even make a case for having superior athleticism.
Now, as Fields himself has demonstrated, talent doesn’t necessarily equal good quarterbacking.
It does provide the potential for excellent quarterbacking though, and that potential is something Fields is progressing toward, after showing dramatically better play from the pocket during the second half of 2023.
Let’s be absolutely clear, that potential is still in the distant yonder for Fields. We aren’t sniffing it yet. But remaining options like Garoppolo, Michael Penix and Daniel Jones are a ticket to nowhere in an AFC West division that might have the most ludicrous level of quarterbacking talent the league has ever seen from a single division, between Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes.
Installing those guys as the long-term answer is like charging the front lines with the newest edition of Super Soaker.
At least it should be quick.
No, that’s not the way to go.
Denver finds themselves down three, with the bases loaded, carrying two outs and a full count. As every child who has envisioned that scenario in their backyard can tell you, this is not the time for the Broncos to shoot for an infield single.
It’s time to swing for the fences, and have some fun while they’re at it.
Make the Denver Broncos Fun Again
This is an argument that might not sway anyone when laid out on a spreadsheet, but, from at least the perspective of the fans, it certainly matters.
Let’s be real. The Denver Broncos are staring down the barrel of pretty gruesome season — Kurt Cobain style.
Jarrett Stidham is currently entrenched as the starter on the roster, with Ben DiNucci as his lone competition and presumptive backup. Not only would that be one of the lowest-wattage quarterback rooms in the league, but it’s also hard to imagine any team’s signal callers being more milquetoast.
Denver’s current group might soon threaten NyQuil’s business, given just how potent their dullness is.
Remember, Stidham was eerily similar to Russell Wilson last year in several metrics, yet his games were intensely more boring. Among 58 qualified quarterbacks this season, Wilson ranked 33rd in EPA/play, while Stidham ranked 37th. Wilson had a success rate of 43.9%, while Stidham landed at 41.7%.
The fact the production can vary so little, and yet have the experience feel so different is almost amazing.
So, now that we’ve adequately described the plain bowl of oatmeal laying before us, let’s discuss the alternative.
Justin Fields might not be a good NFL quarterback and his game boasts plenty of flaws, but you’re fooling yourself if you don’t think he’s also one of the more fun starters in the NFL.
As discussed in the previous section, you can count the quarterbacks more athletically gifted than Fields on one hand. He is often the fastest player on the field and has high-end arm strength. The accuracy he displays on occasion can also has the ability to drop jaws.
Also having a quarterback that is a legitimate running threat sets an offensive foundation that can take you a long way. To maximize an offense’s ceiling, the passing game is a necessity, but a running quarterback like Fields can provide one hell of an offensive floor.
That floor can provide a team with a functional offense. Having a competent offense is almost a requisite for fun football, and is also something the Denver Broncos have been without since 2014.
Not only that, but this floor isn’t hypothetical. Down the stretch in 2022, when the Chicago Bears finally realized that the human tank with 4.4 speed was a valuable rushing threat, their offense skyrocketed in productivity. They went from ranking 22nd in both offensive EPA/play and rushing EPA/play the first six weeks of the season, to ranking 14th as an offense overall and 10th in terms of rushing.
Before you turn your nose up at that, remember, the Broncos have ranked outside the league’s bottom-third in offensive EPA/play just once since 2014, and haven’t ranked among the top 19 once during that span.
Justin Fields Chicago Bears offense without D.J. Moore would have been the Broncos’ best offense since Pharrell’s ‘Happy’ was Billboard’s No. 1.
Plus, as any veteran from the Lock-Bridgewater Civil War could tell you that Broncos Country finds that style of ‘high highs’ and ‘low lows’ more fun than the blandness of down-to-down stability.
The problem there was, Lock’s 2020 offense was the very worst offense Denver has experienced since 2014, wheras Bridgewater’s 2021 attack was the best offense Denver has experienced since 2014.
In this case, however, you don’t have to choose between the ‘fun’ quarterback and the ‘better’ quarterback, because they’re the same guy — Justin Fields.
