The Denver Broncos 2024 NFL Draft class is set, and it projects to be the most impactful class the Broncos have had in several seasons.
With that in mind, what should Broncos Country expect from this pivotal class?
Check out our in-depth podcast discussion of the topic here:
Round 1, Pick 12: Bo Nix, QB
Projected Role: Primary starting quarterback
Estimated Stats: 14 starts; 3,000 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions; 65 carries, 380 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs
Bo Nix should very quickly emerge as the Denver Broncos’ unquestioned franchise quarterback.
Those arguing he must be the Week 1 starter are being a tad dramatic — as the leap to the NFL is a sizable adjustment no matter your age and amount of collegiate experience — but there’s truth to the idea that the Nix is further along in his development, so you don’t want him wasting a year of his cheap rookie contract bench-warming.
Stidham could start the first couple weeks, just to give Nix a little extra time to adjust to the speed of the game, or Nix could win the job outright before the regular season starts. Either way, Nix probably won’t start all 16 games, considering 60% of the league played a backup quarterback in 2023.
When he does play, the offense should be one of Denver’s best of the post-Manning era, so long as Nix lives up to his pre-draft billing.
The offensive line is sturdy, the cast of supporting weapons is passable, and the offensive architect is one of the best in the sport. Even with an incredibly limited menu last season, as a result of their quarterback, the Broncos fielded one of their better offenses of this miserable era.
With improved weapons, a better run game, and more options in the passing game, this year’s unit should be comparable to last year’s squad, if not better.
For Nix’s individual projection, fans should expect something along the lines of what they saw from Teddy Bridgewater in 2021 — a smart and accurate distributor of the football who takes what the defense gives him — with a little more arm talent and aggression, a lot more mobility, and probably a healthy uptick in rookie mental errors.
That might gross Broncos Country out, but that Teddy Bridgewater-led attack was the Denver Broncos’ best offense of the post-Manning era, according to both DVOA and EPA/play. That level of quarterbacking paired with Sean Payton in place of Pat Shurmur could be fun, especially for a rookie.
Round 3, Pick 76: Jonah Elliss, EDGE
Projected Role: Designated pass-rusher
Estimated Stats: 25 tackles, 6 TFLs, 4.5 sacks, 12 QB hits, 13% pass rush win rate
Jonah Elliss is more of a pick for the future than a pick for right now.
Right now, it seems hard to find him many snaps. John Franklin-Myers and Jonathon Cooper are far better run-defending options. Plus, at this stage in his development, it would probably be best to minimize Elliss’ exposure to situations where he’s asked to set the edge. Then, even as a designated pass-rusher, Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto have more pelts on the wall and are likely to improve after another full offseason in Coach Joseph’s system.
A year from now, that all changes, as Browning and Cooper have expiring contracts, and the Denver Broncos seem very unlikely to retain both. At that point, it’s easy to slot Elliss in as a major defensive contributor, assuming the pick pans out.
In year one, his role will likely be similar to what we saw from Bonitto, early in his career, and Browning, early on during his switch to EDGE — a fiery rotational rusher, who sees limited playing time, especially on early downs, but creates quite a few ‘pop’ plays to set Twitter ablaze.
That said, fans should expect a little more from Elliss on a per-snap basis, even though his final snap count might be smaller. Denver’s edge room is back to being fairly crowded, which is a good problem to have, but it also means they won’t be forced to give a bevy of snaps to an underdeveloped young player, which hasn’t been the case for Bonitto or Browning. Elliss comes in as a more refined pass rusher than either of them were at the start of their Denver pass-rushing tenures, but will still likely see less early playing time than they did.
Round 4, Pick 102: Troy Franklin, WR
Projected Role: Rotational vertical receiver
Estimated Stats: 20 receptions, 3 drops, 375 receiving yards (17.8 yards per reception), two receiving touchdowns
Troy Franklin’s ready-made chemistry with Bo Nix could lead to him exceeding expectations, but, as was the case with Elliss, it’s somewhat hard to find him snaps given the makeup of the Denver Broncos’ receiving room.
Denver’s top two options — Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims — are both at their best winning vertically, which is the same area where Troy Franklin excels. Right now, it’s hard to imagine Mims and Franklin spending a ton of time on the field together, simply because of some of the redundancies in their skillsets.
That said, when he’s on the field, he should offer a tremendous amount of juice and field-stretching ability.
Fans should picture something along the lines of a late-stage DeSean Jackson, though with his trajectory pointing up instead of down. Early on, Franklin probably won’t be used as much more than a straight-line deep threat, and he can thrive in that role, but it probably won’t be one with a ton of playing time.
Round 5, Pick 145: Kris Abrams-Draine, CB
Projected Role: Backup boundary corner with starter potential
Estimated Stats: Limited playing time
The fact the Denver Broncos’ primary investments in boundary corner opposite Patrick Surtain II this offseason have been fifth-round pick Kris Abrams-Draine and well-past-his-prime Levi Wallace, it seems the Broncos are fairly confident in their current cornerback situation.
If that holds, Abrams-Draine won’t see a ton of playing time in the immediate future, though he should quickly serve as a strong special teams piece and valuable backup.
That said, if Riley Moss or Damarri Mathis aren’t able to cement a starting spot, Abrams-Draine is easily talented enough to become a rookie starter, even despite his draft slot.
His lack of size could get picked on early in his career, so it’d be ideal to buy him some time to bulk up, but he has the athletic tools, coverage ability, and natural ball skills to hold his own even early on.
Round 5, Pick 147: Audric Estimé, RB
Projected Role: Borderline starting running back
Estimated Stats: 175 carries, 850 yards, six touchdowns; 15 receptions, 70 receiving yards
So much of Audric Estimé’s projection in Denver oddly comes down to Javonte Williams and what he looks like another year removed from his devastating knee injury.
If Williams is back to his rookie-year form, the Denver Broncos should immediately have a clearly defined offensive identity that should be pretty damn fun for the fanbase to watch. They’ll have two of the league’s most physical and most imposing backs to build their offense around.
That would be a tremendous boon for Broncos Country, but would likely lead to Estimé operating in more of a split backfield, with Samaje Perine likely finding himself as the odd man out.
On the other hand, if Williams is more like his 2023 self, Estimé is directly in line for a starting job, without much clear competition on the roster in his way.
Round 7, Pick 235: Devaughn Vele, WR
Projected Role: Practice squad player
Estimated Stats: 0 stats
Ultimately, it’s just very difficult to imagine Devaughn Vele making the Denver Broncos’ final 53-man roster. His best path to doing so is likely beating out Lil’Jordan Humphrey and/or Tim Patrick for a role as one of Sean Payton’s beloved supersized slot receivers, but both Humphrey and Patrick should be favored ahead of Vele entering camp.
That said, if he does manage to make the roster, fans should expect something around five receptions for 50 yards, and a healthy share of special teams snaps.
Round 7, Pick 256: Nick Gargiulo
Projected Role: Backup interior offensive lineman
Estimated Stats: Limited-to-no playing time
Unlike Vele, Nick Gargiulo has a pretty good shot of making the Denver Broncos’ final 53-man roster. He doesn’t have a clear path to playing time though, as he’s buried behind likely starters Alex Forsyth, Ben Powers and Quinn Meinerz, as well as top rotational interior piece Luke Wattenberg, and will have to battle a host of faceless replaceable veterans on top of that.
That said, if he impresses enough to be viewed similarly in the eyes of the staff to Wattenberg, or the Broncos suffer a litany of injuries, Gargiulo could see the field in 2024.
